KAR Karnataka
VID Vidarbha
Vijay Hazare Trophy
Karnataka vs Vidarbha Match Prediction
Last updated: 14 January 2026
Karnataka meet Vidarbha in the first semi-final of the Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26 at the BCCI Centre of Excellence in Bengaluru on January 15. The defending champions are heavy favourites, but the market has priced this match correctly. No betting value exists on either side.
Team Context and Recent Form
Karnataka have been utterly dominant throughout this tournament. Devdutt Padikkal leads the run charts with 721 runs at an average of 90.12 - numbers that belong in a different stratosphere. In the quarter-final against Kerala, he scored 124 while Karun Nair made 130 not out, the pair adding 223 for the second wicket in a devastating display of batting depth. Captain Mayank Agarwal provides experienced leadership and chips in with crucial runs when needed. While KL Rahul and Prasidh Krishna were named in the squad, they are likely unavailable due to India ODI commitments that began on January 11. This is a minor concern, but Karnataka have proven they do not need their international stars to dominate domestic opposition.
Vidarbha have had a strong campaign of their own, led by Yash Rathod who has amassed 637 runs at 79.62 - second only to Padikkal in the tournament. Captain Harsh Dubey offers spin-bowling options and useful lower-order runs, while Nachiket Mokhade has been consistent throughout. They defeated Hyderabad convincingly in the quarter-final but now face a much sterner test on Karnataka's home turf. The gulf in batting depth between these two sides could prove decisive - Karnataka have multiple match-winners, Vidarbha rely heavily on Rathod.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Tournament Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devdutt Padikkal | KAR | Opener | 721 runs, avg 90.12 |
| Karun Nair | KAR | Middle-order | 130* vs Kerala (QF) |
| Yash Rathod | VID | Top-order | 637 runs, avg 79.62 |
| Harsh Dubey | VID | Captain/Spin AR | Key wicket-taker |
| Mayank Agarwal | KAR | Captain/Opener | Experienced leader |
Our Prediction
Karnataka to win. The defending champions have the batting firepower, home advantage, and tournament pedigree to see this through. Padikkal's exceptional form makes them formidable - when your leading run-scorer averages over 90, you have a significant edge. Vidarbha have Rathod, but one outstanding batter cannot match Karnataka's depth where Padikkal, Nair, and Agarwal can all win matches independently. We rate Karnataka at 62% to reach the final.
Betting Value
No bet recommended. Karnataka at 1.60 odds implies 62.5% probability - almost exactly where we have them. Vidarbha at 2.35 offers no value either (implied 42.6% vs our 38%). The bookmakers have read this match well. When the market agrees with your assessment, there is no edge to exploit. Enjoy the cricket, but keep your bankroll dry for better opportunities. Karnataka should advance, but not at odds that offer any mathematical advantage.
