VID Vidarbha
SAU Saurashtra
Vijay Hazare Trophy
Vidarbha vs Saurashtra Match Prediction
Last updated: 17 January 2026
Saurashtra enter this Vijay Hazare Trophy final as the more balanced unit. Two-time champions (2008-09, 2022-23) face last years runners-up Vidarbha, who are chasing their maiden title. Captain Harvik Desai has 561 runs at 71.00 this tournament, while Vishvaraj Jadeja smashed 165* in the semi-final.
Team Context and Recent Form
Saurashtra (Champions 2022-23): Demolished Punjab by 9 wickets in the semi-final on January 16, chasing 292 in just 37.3 overs. Vishvaraj Jadeja (165* off 127 balls, 3 centuries this tournament) and Harvik Desai (64, 561 runs total) put on 172 for the opening wicket. Six players have scored 250+ runs this season. Ankur Panwar leads their bowling with 21 wickets, while Chetan Sakariya took 4/60 in the semi-final.
Vidarbha (Runners-up 2024-25): Beat defending champions Karnataka by 6 wickets on January 15. Aman Mokhade is the tournament's leading scorer with 781 runs at 97.62 and 5 centuries - equalling the world record for fastest to 1000 List A runs. Darshan Nalkande took 5/48 in the semi-final. However, Vidarbha are heavily dependent on Mokhade. Captain Harsh Dubey took over after Akshay Wadkar's wrist injury.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aman Mokhade | VID | Opener | 781 runs, 5 centuries - tournament leader |
| Harvik Desai (C) | SAU | WK-Bat | 561 runs @ 71.00, 100* in QF |
| Vishvaraj Jadeja | SAU | Opener | 165* in SF, 3 centuries this tournament |
| Ankur Panwar | SAU | Pacer | 21 wickets in 9 matches |
| Darshan Nalkande | VID | Pacer | 5/48 in SF vs Karnataka |
Our Prediction
Saurashtra's batting depth is the decisive factor. Six players with 250+ runs versus Vidarbha's reliance on Mokhade alone. The two-time champions have won 2 of 3 VHT finals and their semi-final demolition of Punjab (chased 292 in 37.3 overs with 9 wickets in hand) shows a team peaking at the right time. Unless Mokhade produces another century and Nalkande takes 4+ wickets, Saurashtra should lift the trophy.
Saurashtra at 58% confidence is our pick.
Betting Value
Saurashtra at 1.91 implies 52.4% probability. Our model gives Saurashtra 58%, creating a +5.6% edge. Vidarbha at 1.91 implies 52.4% against our 42%, offering no value on the other side.
With 5.6% edge above our 2% threshold, we recommend 1 unit on Saurashtra. Fair odds are 1.72 - current 1.91 offers genuine value. Saurashtra to claim their third Vijay Hazare title.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We recommend 1.5u for edges above 8%, 1u for 5-8%, and 0.5u for edges between 2-5%.
