Australia tour of Zimbabwe 2026
Zimbabwe vs Australia Prediction & Betting Tips
ZIM Zimbabwe
AUS Australia
Harare Sports Club·
🎯 318/541 predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • Australia predicted to win with 86.6% probability
- • Australia lead the three-match series 1-0 after winning the 1st ODI by 59 runs
- • Australia are without two of their first-choice fast bowlers for the Zimbabwe leg
- • Field first: chasing sides have the better record at this ground over the last decade
- • Zimbabwe's price only interests us in one scenario: if Australia bat first, our number for them climbs to 21.4%
Claim Bonus 
700% Welcome Bonus
Cricket betting with 1xbet · 1000+ markets, T&Cs apply
🪙 Toss Prediction Simulator
Flip the Coin — See How Probabilities Shift
Toss is neutral at Harare Sports Club
You called the toss. Now call the coin.
The toss vote here is free. CricketFlip is the real TON heads-or-tails game: Standard flips are 50/50 and pay 2× if you win.
Call heads or tails →Australia should win, and the market agrees.
Our model puts them at 86.6%. They lead this series 1-0, and they did the job in the opener without two of their first-choice fast bowlers. The real question is whether Zimbabwe can turn a 59-run defeat into a contest, and our numbers say that depends almost entirely on who bats first.
The 1st ODI followed a familiar shape. Australia won the toss, batted, and Matt Renshaw made 109 from 94 balls for his maiden ODI century. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 235 in 45.1 overs in reply. Craig Ervine made 59 and Sikandar Raza 57; nobody else passed 40, and Nathan Ellis finished it with 5 for 31, his first five-wicket haul in the format.
Can Zimbabwe bat 50 overs this time?
Zimbabwe's problem in the opener was not the start. It was that two set batters got in, got to the fifties, and the innings still folded 60 short. Ervine and Raza did the hard work against the new ball; the trouble came later, when Australia's change bowlers squeezed the middle overs and the required rate climbed away.
They are also short of pace. Two front-line seamers are ruled out of the series through injury, which leaves Blessing Muzarabani carrying the new-ball load with Brad Evans and Ernest Masuku for support. Zimbabwe do have real spin depth: Graeme Cremer and Wellington Masakadza alongside Raza's own off-breaks, and on a surface that slows, that is the department where they can actually apply pressure.
Australia have rotated, but the depth still tells
This is not a full-strength Australia. Two of their first-choice fast bowlers are missing from the Zimbabwe leg, one rested and one selected only for the South African matches that follow. Cameron Green missed the 1st ODI with shoulder soreness and Josh Hazlewood was rested; neither has been confirmed either way for the 2nd.
It has not mattered yet. Mitchell Marsh, Travis Head, Alex Carey, Josh Inglis and Cooper Connolly are all in the batting, and Ellis and Adam Zampa are a serious limited-overs attack on their own. That is the practical meaning of Australia sitting 4th in the ICC ODI rankings on 102 rating points while Zimbabwe sit 11th on 63.
Key matchups: the middle overs decide it again
Ervine and Raza vs Australia's middle overs: the two were the only Zimbabweans to look settled in the opener, and both fell before they could bat deep. If either is still in at the 40-over mark, Zimbabwe's total changes character.
Muzarabani vs Australia's openers: at 203cm he gets steep bounce, and the new ball does something here before the pitch flattens. Two early wickets would put Australia's rotated middle order under pressure they did not face in the opener.
Zampa vs Zimbabwe's lower middle order: the surface slows, and Zimbabwe have to accelerate against a bowler who concedes little. That phase decided the opener.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Australia have dominated this fixture for decades. Zimbabwe's most recent ODI win over them came at Townsville in September 2022, by three wickets, and the most recent meeting of all was Australia's 59-run win at Harare Sports Club on 15 September 2026.
That 2022 win came in Australia rather than at home, which is the harder version of the task Zimbabwe face in Harare.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Harare Sports Club, Harare — Zimbabwe's principal international ground and the venue for the whole series. It has staged more than 200 ODIs and rewards bowlers more than its reputation suggests.
- Pitch: Balanced, tilting slightly towards the bowlers. Australia's 294 for 8 in the opener was a strong total by this ground's standards and Zimbabwe's 235 in reply was not far off par. The new ball moves, and the surface slows and turns as the innings wear on.
- Weather: Clear sky and no rain forecast at any point in the day. Around 21°C at the 09:30 local start, rising to 26°C by mid-afternoon, with humidity falling through the day, so dew is not a factor for a morning game.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — ODI captains lean that way as a rule, and this ground's own ODI sample is too thin to override the pattern. Chasing sides have had the better of it here over the last decade, which points the same direction. Our ZIM vs AUS toss prediction shows why this venue leans one way.
Match Analysis: where this match is won and lost
The powerplay is Zimbabwe's window. Muzarabani with a hard new ball on a surface that offers early movement is the most dangerous thing they own, and Australia's reserve batting is untested in these conditions.
The middle overs are where Australia are strongest, and Zimbabwe's inability to bat through that phase cost them the chase in the 1st ODI. Lose three wickets in the middle overs again and the result follows.
The other variable is batting order, and it matters more here than the gap in quality suggests. Batting second is the easier job at this ground, and Zimbabwe need every structural advantage available. Our model moves them from 5.4% setting a total to 21.4% chasing one, the single largest swing in this match.
Zimbabwe vs Australia prediction: the tourists go 2-0 up
We are backing Australia at 86.6%. They are the better side by a distance and proved it in the opener without two first-choice seamers. Fair odds on Australia are 1.15.
The interesting number is the other one. Zimbabwe at 8.5 is slightly longer than our fair 7.46, and if Australia bat first that price becomes materially attractive rather than marginally so. Settle this one at the toss.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimbabwe | 13.4% | 8.5% | 8.50 | 7.46 |
| Australia | 86.6% | 91.5% | 1.08 | 1.15 |
Australia are fairly priced; the underdog is where the movement is. At 1.08 the favourite offers nothing beyond certainty, which is what a 1-0 lead and a fixture history this lopsided buys. Zimbabwe at 8.50 sits just above our fair 7.46, and the Scenario Map above shows that edge widening to roughly 13 points if Australia bat first.
Our model is 4.9 points below the market on Australia. Here's why. The market is pricing Australia as though this were a full-strength side: it is not, with two first-choice quicks absent from this leg and both Green and Hazlewood missing the opener. We also weight the ground more heavily: chasing sides have had the better of it here over the last decade, and a home side that bowls first gets the better half of that split. Odds captured 17 September 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win the Zimbabwe vs Australia 2nd ODI on 18 September 2026?
Our model predicts Australia to beat Zimbabwe in the 2nd ODI at Harare Sports Club, scheduled for 18 September 2026, with an 86.6% win probability against Zimbabwe's 13.4%. Australia already lead the three-match series 1-0.
What is the toss prediction for Zimbabwe vs Australia?
Our model calls field first for the Zimbabwe vs Australia 2nd ODI at Harare Sports Club on 18 September 2026. Chasing sides have had the better record at the ground over the last decade, and our number for Zimbabwe rises from 5.4% batting first to 21.4% chasing.
What are the odds for Zimbabwe vs Australia in the 2nd ODI?
Zimbabwe are priced at 8.50 and Australia at 1.08 for the 18 September 2026 ODI at Harare. Our fair odds are 7.46 for Zimbabwe and 1.15 for Australia, so Australia are efficiently priced while Zimbabwe sit slightly longer than our model's valuation.
Who won the 1st ODI between Zimbabwe and Australia?
Australia won the 1st ODI at Harare Sports Club on 15 September 2026 by 59 runs, making 294 for 8 before bowling Zimbabwe out for 235 in 45.1 overs. Matt Renshaw scored 109 from 94 balls and Nathan Ellis took 5 for 31.
What is the head-to-head record between Zimbabwe and Australia in ODIs?
Australia have dominated the ODI fixture between the two sides. Zimbabwe's most recent ODI win over Australia came at Townsville in September 2022, and Australia's most recent win was by 59 runs at Harare Sports Club on 15 September 2026.
What is the pitch report for Harare Sports Club in ODIs?
Harare Sports Club is a balanced ODI surface that slightly favours bowlers. In the 1st ODI there on 15 September 2026, Australia made 294 for 8 and Zimbabwe were bowled out for 235, and chasing sides have had the better record at the ground over the last decade.
Also Playing Today
Explore More
Tested platforms with UPI and fast withdrawals
🎯 the public resultsEvery prediction logged, every result settled publicly
🏏 today's cricket predictionsAll today's free cricket prediction tips
🪙 our pre-toss call for this matchPre-toss call vs actual outcome, auto-stamped