Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Toss Prediction (NOT vs WAR)

Friday, 5 June 2026 · 23:00 IST · Trent Bridge · Blast

Last updated: 6 June 2026

Toss prediction page launched 2 June 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire match preview on 2 June 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✗ Decision missed

Our predicted decision

bat first

From the article: "Captains here typically choose to bat, and the chase advantage at this venue is around minus 4 percent."

What happened

Nottinghamshire elected to field

Stamped 6 Jun, 09:30 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

Nottinghamshire won the match ✓ match-winner prediction correct

🏟️ What the toss means at Trent Bridge

Toss impact: HIGH bat-first ground — chases succeed only 40% of the time here

The toss went Nottinghamshire's way — they chose to field, so Nottinghamshire chase. In this branch our model makes Nottinghamshire 53.0% — fair odds 1.89 (WAR 2.13) against a pre-toss baseline of 57.0%.

How we made this Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see our toss tracking approach.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for NOT vs WAR: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire prediction →

NOT vs WAR toss prediction FAQ

Who won the NOT vs WAR toss?

Nottinghamshire won the NOT vs WAR toss and chose to field first.

What did the toss winner choose in NOT vs WAR?

Nottinghamshire chose to field first. Our pre-toss call was bat first — the captain went the other way.

How does the toss affect the NOT vs WAR match odds?

Meaningfully. Trent Bridge favours batting first (chases succeed only 40% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 4 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →