Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Prediction & Betting Tips

Two sides in trouble, one at home.

Our analysis lands on Nottinghamshire at 57 percent for this cross-pool fixture at Trent Bridge, with the market in line. Notts are 1-3 in the North Group, off a 6-wicket home win over Durham on 31 May (George Munsey 88 not out). Warwickshire are 0-4, bottom of the Central & West Group, with a 74 all out at Bristol on the opening night. Last 5 H2H: Warwickshire 3, Notts 2. Notts at 1.69 sits just under fair (1.76); the best Warwickshire price of 2.20 sits inside fair (2.31). Neither side is strong value.

Notts Looking to Build on the Durham Win

Nottinghamshire opened on 22 May at home and lost to Yorkshire by 7 wickets, bowled to 167/7 with Benny Howell 30 off 13 the standout. Three nights later they were 39 runs short at Old Trafford against a Lancashire 208/4. On 29 May at Derby they conceded 234/4 (Aneurin Donald 84 off 31) and lost by 23 runs despite Tom Moores 75 off 34 in the chase.

Then the corner. On 31 May at home against Durham, George Munsey produced an unbeaten 88 from 52 balls and Notts chased 157 with 16 balls to spare. First win of the campaign, the kind of innings that resets a top order. A 4-day break since has let them plan for this one.

Joe Clarke captains the side under head coach Peter Moores. Ben Duckett is back in the white-ball squad; the overseas pair is Mohammad Ali plus George Linde (Linde missed the opener on visa issues). The XI used against Yorkshire was the familiar white-ball group: Clarke, Duckett, Munsey, Haynes, Moores (wk), James, Howell, Pocklington, Stone, Pennington, Mohammad Ali.

Bears Searching for a First Win of the Campaign

Warwickshire sit bottom of the Central & West Group on 0 points from 4 matches. The opener at Bristol on 22 May was the low point: bowled out for 74 chasing 122, despite Tazeem Chaudry Ali\'s 4/25 with the ball. Somerset beat them by 7 wickets at home on 24 May, Worcestershire bowled them out for 141 on 29 May, and Northants chased 209 with 4 balls to spare on 31 May.

The pattern is recognisable. The bowling has bright spots (Tazeem\'s 4-for, decent Yates and Thompson contributions with the bat) but the batting collapses have come at the wrong moments. A 74 all out is the kind of number that follows a team around all season.

Ed Barnard captains across all formats from March 2026, after Alex Davies stepped down (Davies still keeps wicket). Head coach Ian Westwood. Beau Webster is the overseas player for the first half of the season. Hain and Mousley are the senior batting threats; Tazeem Chaudry Ali has carried the attack so far.

Key Matchups: Where the Battle Is Won

Joe Clarke vs the Warwickshire new ball: Clarke sets the tone for the Notts top order, and a strong powerplay at Trent Bridge under lights decides whether the home side post 180-plus. Bears have moved the ball in the early Blast games.

Sam Hain vs the Notts spinners: Hain is Warwickshire\'s most reliable batter, and finding the boundary against spin in the middle overs is what could shape the away innings. If he goes early, the Bears innings has nowhere to hide.

Tazeem Chaudry Ali in the middle overs: Tazeem\'s leg-spin took a 4-for in the opener and remains the Warwickshire wicket option. The middle-overs duel between him and Munsey or Moores could decide the chase, whichever way round the match unfolds.

Match Analysis: Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost

The powerplay sets the platform. Notts have Clarke and Duckett at the top, both Test-match openers in the English summer game, and the kind of pair that can put 60-plus on the board in the first six. If they get through Bears\' new ball, the home side post a total in the 180-plus band that the Warwickshire batting has not chased once this campaign.

For the Bears, the route in is the same one that worked at this venue in 2024 — early wickets with movement under lights. Keith Barker has the angle to trouble Notts left-handers, and Tazeem Chaudry Ali can apply pressure through the middle. The problem is the Warwickshire batting has yet to fire in 2026.

Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Prediction: Home Side to Make It Two in a Row

Our analysis lands on Notts at 57 percent, with the market in line. Medium confidence. Home record, the Durham-win momentum, and a Warwickshire side at 0-4 all stack toward the host. The H2H tilts the other way, but the form line is one-way. Notts at 1.69 is essentially at fair (1.76); the best Warwickshire price of 2.20 sits inside fair (2.31). Notts to win, no strong head-to-head bet.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire in the Vitality Blast?

Our analysis predicts Nottinghamshire to win at 57 percent, with Warwickshire at 43 percent. Confidence is medium. Notts are home, coming off their first win of the campaign (a 6-wicket chase of Durham on 31 May), and Warwickshire arrive winless after four defeats including a 74 all out at Bristol on the opening night.

What is the toss prediction for Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire?

Trent Bridge favours batting first, with 60 percent of Vitality Blast matches at this ground won by the side that sets a total. Captains here typically choose to bat, and the chase advantage at this venue is around minus 4 percent.

What are the best odds for Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire?

The best price for Notts is 1.69 and for Warwickshire 2.20. Notts at 1.69 sits just inside fair (1.76). The best Warwickshire price of 2.20 is the longest in the market but still inside fair (2.31), so not flagged as value.

How does the toss affect Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire?

Trent Bridge favours batting first, and the toss winner is likely to bat. Our analysis shifts about 4 points toward whichever side wins the toss and bats.

What is the head-to-head record between Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire?

Warwickshire have won three of the last five completed Vitality Blast meetings. Notts won the most recent, a record 7-wicket chase of 227 at Trent Bridge on 30 May 2025. The infamous result in this fixture was at Trent Bridge in July 2024, when Bears bowled Notts out for 57 — the lowest T20 score in Nottinghamshire history and the lowest ever at the ground.