Women's Super Smash 2025-26
Otago Sparks vs Canterbury Magicians — Prediction Correct ✅
OSW Otago Sparks
CMW Canterbury Magicians
Molyneux Park, Alexandra
Our pre-match predictionResult: Otago Sparks won by 6 wickets. OSW 146/4 vs CMW 145/6.
Our Prediction: Otago Sparks - Correct
Pre-match analysis published on 28 December 2025:
Pre-Match Probability: Otago Sparks 55% | Canterbury Magicians 45%
No Bet: Edge was -0.2% (below 2% threshold). Prediction correct.
Match Summary
Laura Harris delivered a stunning performance. Her 52 off just 17 balls included a 15-ball fifty - equalling the fastest in Women's Super Smash history (Marie Kelly's record from 2022). Canterbury posted 145/6 with Izzy Sharp scoring an unbeaten 65* off 47 balls. But Harris's explosive innings meant Otago chased it down with 31 balls to spare.
Analysis Review
Validated: Home advantage at Molyneux Park. Otago's familiarity with Alexandra conditions proved decisive - they won comfortably despite Suzie Bates' absence.
Validated: Otago's squad depth beyond Bates. Laura Harris stepped up in spectacular fashion, proving the team has match-winners beyond their injured star.
Overestimated: The impact of Suzie Bates' absence. We flagged it as too much uncertainty but Otago coped better than expected.
Outcome
No bet placed. Edge was -0.2% - below the 2% minimum threshold. The SKIP decision was correct process. Prediction was accurate but no value existed at 1.81 odds.
