Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26
Kerala vs Madhya Pradesh — Prediction Correct ✅
KER Kerala
MP Madhya Pradesh
Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Our pre-match predictionResult: Madhya Pradesh won by 47 runs (214/10 vs 167/10)
Our Pick: Madhya Pradesh @ 1.86 (+6.2% edge)
Outcome: Won (+0.86 units)
* 1 unit = 1% of bankroll
Pre-match analysis published on 29 December 2025:
Result: Kerala won by 2 wickets in a dramatic finish, chasing 256 with just 2 balls to spare. Our MP value pick did not land—Kerala's lower order held their nerve.
Match Summary
Madhya Pradesh 255/8 (50 overs) - Yash Dubey continued his outstanding form with 91, his third consecutive 90+ score this VHT. MP posted a competitive total but couldn't capitalise on the platform Dubey provided.
Kerala 257/8 (49.4 overs) - A thrilling chase that went down to the final over. Jalaj Saxena was Player of the Match with an all-round contribution. Kerala won with 2 wickets in hand and 2 balls remaining.
Key Performances
| Player | Team | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Jalaj Saxena | KER | POTM - all-round display |
| Yash Dubey | MP | 91 - third consecutive 90+ score |
Prediction Review
Our 60% confidence on MP did not convert. Yash Dubey delivered again (91), but Kerala's chase was clinical when it mattered. MP had Kerala at 8 down, but couldn't close it out. The game justified our close assessment—it came down to 2 wickets and 2 balls. MP's unbeaten run ends, while Kerala keep their knockout hopes alive.
Betting Outcome
We recommended MP at 1.86 with +6.2% edge. LOSS. The edge calculation was sound, but cricket variance struck again. A 2-wicket loss with 2 balls remaining shows how fine the margins are. MP remain a quality side—this was a deserved value bet that didn't land.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We recommend 1.5u for edges above 8%, 1u for 5-8%, and 0.5u for edges between 2-5%.
