The Hundred 2026
London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix Prediction & Betting Tips
LS London Spirit
BP Birmingham Phoenix
Lord's, Londonยท
๐ฏ 283/488 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข London Spirit predicted to win with 53.8% probability
- โข The bottom two meet: London Spirit 7th and Birmingham Phoenix 8th, both with 1 win from 6 and both on 4 points
- โข Their first meeting of the 2026 men's competition, with two fixtures left each
- โข Toss call: Field first โ Lord's carries no dependable toss record in our data for this competition, so the call comes from our measured short-format prior, which favours bowling
- โข The value sits on the underdog: Birmingham Phoenix at 2.28 against our fair 2.16
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
Flip the Coin โ See How Probabilities Shift
Bat first โ only 35% chase win rate at Lord's, London
How batting order moves the London Spirit number.
- A late absence in the Birmingham Phoenix seam attack, the department our number leans on
- Birmingham Phoenix batting first, which alone hands them the favourite tag
- A quick, true surface, which widens the advantage of whoever bats first
London Spirit to win, our model says 53.8%.
Our AI model makes the hosts narrow favourites at Lord's on 9 August 2026, and the bookmakers agree on the direction while pricing it noticeably shorter. That difference is the story here: this is the bottom two sides playing each other, and the table gives you nothing to separate them.
Two sides on identical records, split only by run rate
London Spirit sit 7th and Birmingham Phoenix 8th. Both have played 6, won 1, lost 5 and hold 4 points. The only thing dividing them in the standings is net run rate.
What that hides is that they have lost in very different ways. The London Spirit defeats have been narrow: by 7 runs to Manchester Super Giants on 23 July 2026, by 4 wickets with 2 balls to spare to Trent Rockets on 26 July 2026, by 5 wickets with 3 balls left to Southern Brave on 1 August 2026, and by 4 wickets with 6 balls left to MI London on 6 August 2026. Their one win, over MI London on 29 July 2026, came by 7 wickets with 11 balls in hand.
The Birmingham Phoenix defeats have been heavier: by 87 runs to Manchester Super Giants on 26 July 2026, by 45 runs to Sunrisers Leeds on 7 August 2026 and by 12 runs to Southern Brave on 30 July 2026. That is the run-rate gap in one paragraph, and a fair reason for the market to make the home side favourite.
So why does our model rate Birmingham Phoenix higher than the price does?
Because one result looks different from the rest. Birmingham Phoenix beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs on 24 July 2026, and Trent Rockets sit top of the table. That is the standout performance of their campaign.
Their squad reads better than 8th too. Rehan Ahmed and Saqib Mahmood are England internationals, Ben Dwarshuis is among the more effective overseas seamers in short-format cricket, and Will Smeed, Joe Clarke, Donovan Ferreira, Mitchell Owen, Jordan Thompson and Chris Wood fill out a deeper side than its position suggests.
Our model weighs a longer run of form than this season alone, and on that view it has Birmingham Phoenix as the stronger of the two. The market is pricing the last three weeks; we are pricing more, which is why our number rounds to 54% rather than the 58% the bookmakers imply.
What London Spirit have going for them at Lord's
Liam Livingstone captains a side better than its record. Jonny Bairstow, Dewald Brevis and Jamie Overton can each settle a short-format match in fifteen deliveries, Adam Zampa is among the best white-ball spinners in the competition, and James Coles knows the ground.
Home advantage is real, but their two most recent fixtures at Lord's both went against them, to Manchester Super Giants on 23 July 2026 and to MI London on 6 August 2026.
Key matchups that decide the evening
Adam Zampa against Will Smeed and Joe Clarke: the visitors' top order has to get through a wrist-spinner in the middle phase, and Zampa is the biggest single reason our number is not lower.
Saqib Mahmood against Jonny Bairstow: pace at the top against a batter who scores fastest playing through the line. Whoever wins this sets the tone of the innings.
Ben Dwarshuis at the death: London Spirit were beaten with wickets in hand on 26 July, on 1 August and again on 6 August 2026, so the closing overs are where their season has turned.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
This is their first meeting of the 2026 men's competition. Both have played 6 matches without facing the other, and each is the other's next fixture.
We are not publishing an all-time record between these two, because we could not source one we trust. That is an honest gap rather than a claim no history exists.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Lord's, London โ the home ground of London Spirit, and a venue that has leaned toward the side batting first in this competition rather than the side chasing. That is the split that applies here, not the one from longer formats at the same ground.
- Pitch: a true surface with pace and carry, where a competitive total is defendable and the chase is harder than a scoreboard suggests.
- Weather: a hot, dry and largely cloudless evening is forecast in London, with no rain for the match window. Stated qualitatively because forecast providers disagree on exact figures.
- Toss: we hold no dependable toss history at this ground for this competition, so our measured short-format prior decides it, and it favours bowling. Expect the coin winner to field. Our full pre-toss call for this match is on the dedicated toss page.
Match analysis: where this match will be won and lost
Two teams on 4 points with two fixtures left each are playing for a finish above the other, and that is rarely a quiet fixture.
The first front is the middle phase. Zampa is the most likely wicket-taker on the field, and the Birmingham Phoenix defeats on 26 July 2026 and 7 August 2026 were heavy enough to look like collapses.
The second is the finish, where London Spirit have repeatedly come up short. Losing from a winning position is not the same as being a bad team, but it is a reason to want a price rather than take a short one.
London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix prediction: the hosts win, the visitors carry the value
We make it London Spirit at 53.8%, so the pick is the home side. What we will not do is back them at 1.66, because that price implies a good deal more than our number does.
Birmingham Phoenix at 2.28 against our fair 2.16 is where our own maths points: a modest underdog position, not a big swing.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London Spirit | 53.8% | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.86 |
| Birmingham Phoenix | 46.2% | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.16 |
The edge is on the underdog. Birmingham Phoenix at 2.28 beats our fair 2.16 by roughly 5.3%. London Spirit at 1.66 sits below our fair 1.86, so backing the favourite means paying above our own valuation. Odds captured on 9 August 2026.
Why we disagree with the market: our model is 4.5 points below the market on London Spirit. Strip the bookmaker's margin out and the market lands near 58% on the hosts against our 53.8%. We agree on who is favourite and disagree on by how much. The gap comes from two things: Birmingham Phoenix beat Trent Rockets, the side top of the table, by 10 runs on 24 July 2026, and London Spirit have lost at this ground on 23 July 2026 and again on 6 August 2026, so the usual home premium has less behind it than 1.66 implies.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts London Spirit to win at Lord's on 9 August 2026, with a 53.8% win probability against 46.2% for Birmingham Phoenix. Both sides arrive on 4 points from 6 matches, having won 1 and lost 5.
What is the toss prediction for London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix?
Field first. Lord's carries no dependable toss record in our data for this competition, so the call comes from our measured short-format prior, which favours bowling. The toss matters more than usual here: our number moves by 6 points depending on who bats first.
What are the odds for London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix on 9 August 2026?
London Spirit are available at 1.66 and Birmingham Phoenix at 2.28, against our fair prices of 1.86 and 2.16. The value is on Birmingham Phoenix at roughly 5.3%. Prices are from a single book, captured on 9 August 2026.
What is the head-to-head record between London Spirit and Birmingham Phoenix?
The match at Lord's on 9 August 2026 is their first meeting of the 2026 men's competition. We do not publish an all-time record for this pairing because we could not source one we trust, so this preview uses each side's 2026 results instead.
Where do London Spirit and Birmingham Phoenix sit in The Hundred 2026 table?
London Spirit are 7th and Birmingham Phoenix 8th of eight teams. Both have played 6, won 1, lost 5 and hold 4 points, separated only by net run rate with two fixtures remaining each.
How does the toss affect London Spirit vs Birmingham Phoenix?
Substantially. If London Spirit bat first our number rises to 59.8%; if Birmingham Phoenix bat first it falls to 47.8%, which makes Birmingham Phoenix the more likely winner. That 6-point swing changes who the favourite is.
