The Hundred 2026
Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire Prediction & Betting Tips
SUN Sunrisers Leeds
WEL Welsh Fire
Headingley, Leedsยท
๐ฏ 283/488 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Sunrisers Leeds predicted to win with 59.8% probability
- โข The table separates nobody: both sides have played 6, won 4, lost 2, and hold 16 points
- โข The home side have won at this ground on 25 July, 28 July and 4 August this season
- โข Toss call: Field first โ this ground carries no toss record in our data, so the call comes from our measured short-format prior, which favours bowling
- โข Unusually flat scenario map: the batting order moves our number by a single point, so the pick does not hinge on the coin
Small edge โ the price sits just above our fair line. Worth noting, size accordingly.
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
Flip the Coin โ See How Probabilities Shift
Toss is neutral at Headingley, Leeds
How batting order moves the Sunrisers Leeds number.
- A late absence in the home top order. Our number leans on a settled line-up at a ground they know, and one withdrawal takes more off than the ground advantage puts on
- Rain. A shortened game levels two already close sides, and the forecast is the one variable that can move fastest on the morning
- A surface with more in it than usual. A green tinge at Headingley favours the side bowling first far more than our flat scenario map suggests
Sunrisers Leeds to win, our model says 59.8%.
Our AI model makes the hosts favourites at Headingley on 9 August 2026, and the market agrees on the direction while pricing it a shade shorter. What makes this one interesting is how little separates the sides: identical records and a ground where the batting order barely matters.
Why the table tells you nothing about this match
Both teams arrive having played 6 matches, won 4 and lost 2, on 16 points each. That is as level as a mid-season fixture gets, and it is why the price is not shorter.
So the case for the home side comes from somewhere other than the standings. Sunrisers Leeds have won at this ground three times this season: against Southern Brave on 25 July, Manchester Super Giants on 28 July and London Spirit on 4 August. This is their fourth home fixture, and the previous three all went the same way.
They also arrive off a win on the road, beating Birmingham Phoenix at Edgbaston on 7 August. A settled side winning away and then returning to a ground they have not lost at this season is the shape our number is built on, and it is why that number rounds to 60% rather than sitting closer to even.
Can Welsh Fire's top order break the pattern?
Phil Salt and Joe Root give the visitors two of the most recognisable names in the competition, and it is a top order built to take the game away early rather than grind. When it fires, the identical league record stops being a coincidence and starts looking like an underrating.
Their recent evidence cuts both ways: they beat Southern Brave at Sophia Gardens on 3 August, then lost to Manchester Super Giants at Emirates Old Trafford on 5 August. Two matches, two different sides of the same team.
With the ball they are well stocked. Marco Jansen brings height and awkward angles with the new ball, and Chris Woakes is as reliable a first-change option as this competition offers. If the hosts are going to be stopped, it is likeliest to happen in the first twenty-five deliveries.
Key matchups that decide the afternoon
Harry Brook against the new ball: a home batter of that quality at his own ground, facing an attack that has to bowl to him early. This is the single exchange most likely to settle the direction of the match.
Marco Jansen against the top order: the visitors' best chance of an early breakthrough, and the reason our number is not higher than it is. Left-arm angle at pace is awkward at any ground.
Brydon Carse and Matthew Potts at the death: the home seam pair have the harder job in a short-format finish, and the last twenty deliveries are where an even contest stops being even.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
We are not giving you an all-time record here, and it is worth saying why. Two public sources carrying a figure for this pairing disagree with each other, and the home side were known by a different name until this season, so it is not clear they are counting the same matches.
What both sides have done this season is solid, and that is what the sections above use instead.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Headingley, Leeds โ close to an even split between setting and chasing in this competition, rather than the strong bat-first ground it is in other formats. The number that applies here is not the one on a generic venue page.
- Pitch: a true surface where the new ball does enough early and the scoring rate climbs once it softens. Neither innings has an obvious structural advantage.
- Weather: a dry, mild afternoon is forecast in Leeds, with rain a low risk rather than a live one. Stated in those terms because forecast providers disagree on the exact figures this far out.
- Toss: we hold no dependable toss history at this ground, so our short-format prior decides it and it favours bowling. Expect the coin winner to field. See our toss analysis for SUN vs WEL, locked in before the coin lands.
Match analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The first twenty-five deliveries of each innings decide this. With no strong ground bias the early advantage rarely gets handed back, and both attacks are built to take it rather than contain.
The second front is the finish. Whichever side bats first, a format this short leaves almost no margin at the death, and that is where the home side's familiarity is worth something real.
The honest risk to our call is that the records really are identical and we are leaning on three home results to separate them. Three is a small number: enough to justify a favourite at this price, not enough to justify a big one.
Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire prediction: the hosts, narrowly
We make it Sunrisers Leeds at 59.8%, and the available 1.72 is worth taking. The reasoning is not that this is a mismatch, because the table says plainly it is not, but that a settled home side at a ground they have won at three times is worth slightly more than the market pays.
Size it as the small edge it is: a modest overlay on an even contest.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrisers Leeds | 59.8% | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.67 |
| Welsh Fire | 40.2% | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.49 |
A small overlay on the favourite, and nothing on the other side. The available 1.72 beats our fair 1.67 by roughly 2.9%, which is a modest position rather than a heavy one. Welsh Fire at 2.18 sit below our fair 2.49, so the value is one-way here. Odds captured on 9 August 2026.
Why we disagree with the market: our model is 3.5 points above the market on Sunrisers Leeds. Strip the bookmaker's margin out of the two prices and the market lands near 56% on the hosts against our 59.8%. We are not arguing about the favourite, only the distance. The gap comes from two things the price looks light on. The first is the home record at this specific ground this season โ three wins from three, on 25 July, 28 July and 4 August, against three different opponents. The second is that this venue behaves differently in this competition than its reputation suggests, so a price built on the ground's wider history understates a side that wins here.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to win at Headingley on 9 August 2026, with a 59.8% win probability against 40.2% for Welsh Fire. Both sides arrive on identical records of four wins and two losses from six matches.
What is the toss prediction for Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire?
Field first. Headingley carries no dependable toss record in our data, so the call comes from our measured short-format prior, which favours bowling. In practice the toss matters less here than usual: our number moves by only one point between the two batting orders.
What are the odds for Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire on 9 August 2026?
Sunrisers Leeds are available at 1.72 and Welsh Fire at 2.18. Our fair prices are 1.67 and 2.49, so the favourite carries a small overlay of about 2.9% and the underdog carries none. Prices are from a single book and were captured on 9 August 2026.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunrisers Leeds and Welsh Fire?
We do not publish one. Two public sources carrying an all-time figure for this pairing disagree with each other, and Sunrisers Leeds competed under a different name before the 2026 season, so it is unclear the two sources are counting the same matches. This preview uses each side's 2026 results instead.
How has Sunrisers Leeds performed at Headingley this season?
They have won all three of their home fixtures in the 2026 men's competition: against Southern Brave on 25 July, Manchester Super Giants on 28 July and London Spirit on 4 August. The match on 9 August is their fourth home game of the season.
How does the toss affect Sunrisers Leeds vs Welsh Fire?
Barely. If Sunrisers Leeds bat first our number rises to 60.8%; if Welsh Fire bat first it falls to 58.8%. A one-point swing either way means the batting order is not a reason to change the bet.
