OS Otago Sparks
WB Wellington Blaze
Womens Super Smash
Otago Sparks vs Wellington Blaze Match Prediction
Last updated: 13 January 2026
Otago Sparks host Wellington Blaze at University of Otago Oval on January 15 in a crucial Women's Super Smash 2025-26 clash. Wellington are without star all-rounder Amelia Kerr, who is playing in the WPL for Mumbai Indians. Despite this significant absence, the Blaze remain table-toppers with 5 wins from 7 matches. Otago enter with momentum after chasing down 168 against Auckland Hearts on January 12.
Team Context and Recent Form
Wellington Blaze lead the points table with 5 wins from 7 matches (23 points). They narrowly beat Northern Brave by 3 runs on January 11, with Jess Kerr stepping up magnificently, scoring 53 off 31 balls. The absence of Amelia Kerr (206 runs at 103.00�tournament leader) is significant, but the squad has depth. Georgia Plimmer has 162 runs at 27.00, while Xara Jetly leads the tournament wicket charts with 9 wickets. They beat Otago by 6 wickets in the reverse fixture on January 9.
Otago Sparks sit 3rd with 3 wins from 6 matches (15 points). After losing three straight, they bounced back emphatically on January 12, chasing 168 against Auckland Hearts with 10 balls to spare. Eva Gray (35* off 13 balls) was the match-winner, while Poppy Jay Watkins (50 off 36) anchored the chase. Emma Black remains their best bowler with 7 wickets at an economy of 5.18. Playing at home in Dunedin gives them an edge.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Plimmer | WB | Bat | 162 runs @ 27.00, SR 106.57 |
| Xara Jetly | WB | Bowl | 9 wkts (tournament leader) |
| Jess Kerr | WB | All | 53(31) vs Northern Brave, 6 wkts |
| Eva Gray | OS | Bat | 35*(13) match-winner vs Auckland |
| Emma Black | OS | Bowl | 7 wkts @ 11.85, Econ 5.18 |
Our Prediction
Wellington Blaze edge this at 57% probability. Despite losing Amelia Kerr, they beat Otago by 6 wickets just 6 days ago and showed resilience in a 3-run win over Northern Brave. Jess Kerr has stepped into the leadership void effectively. However, Otago's momentum after chasing 168 and home advantage make this closer than the market suggests. Weather could also be a factor�Dunedin has variable January conditions.
Betting Value
No betting value in this match. Wellington at 1.57 implies 63.7%�we assess them at 57%, giving negative edge of -6.7%. Otago at 2.38 offers only +0.98% edge, below our 2% minimum threshold. The market has priced Kerr's absence but perhaps slightly overvalues Wellington's remaining depth. SKIP for betting�enjoy the match as a neutral.
