The Hundred 2026
Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit Prediction & Betting Tips
SUN Sunrisers Leeds
LS London Spirit
Headingley, Leedsยท
๐ฏ 273/474 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Sunrisers Leeds predicted to win with 57.1% probability
- โข Zak Crawley leads the hosts, Liam Livingstone leads London Spirit, and Harry Brook against Dewald Brevis is the contest that decides short games
- โข Both sides arrive off a defeat: Sunrisers Leeds lost to Trent Rockets by 5 runs on 2 August, London Spirit lost to Southern Brave by 5 wickets on 1 August
- โข Toss call: Field first โ no reliable ground bias to lean on, so the measured competition-wide pattern decides it
- โข The hosts at 1.80 carry a 2.8% edge over our fair 1.75, which is a small-stakes call rather than a strong one
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
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Call heads or tails โHow batting order moves our Sunrisers Leeds price.
- If Harry Brook is unavailable, the hosts lose their highest-ceiling batter and the gap narrows by roughly 4 points
- If the ball swings under Leeds cloud in the first 25 balls, Jamie Overton and the London Spirit seamers close perhaps 3 points of it
- If rain shortens the game, a 100-ball match compresses further and the result drifts towards a coin toss
Our AI model gives Sunrisers Leeds a 57.1% chance of beating London Spirit at Headingley, and the market is barely a step away at 55.2%. That is a gap of under two points, which tells you this is a game the bookmakers have priced sensibly rather than one they have missed. Both captains arrive under pressure, and both sides lost their last time out.
Can Zak Crawley's hosts convert home advantage at Headingley?
Sunrisers Leeds have the deeper batting hand. Harry Brook is the highest-ceiling player on either team sheet, Zak Crawley captains and opens, and Dan Lawrence and Mitchell Marsh give the middle order two players who can change a chase inside twenty balls.
Their bowling suits these conditions. Brydon Carse and Matthew Potts hit the surface hard, Reece Topley offers left-arm variety with the new ball, and Nathan Ellis has the change-ups for the closing stretch. The hosts lost to Trent Rockets by 5 runs on 2 August, a defeat that says the attack is competitive rather than broken.
London Spirit lean on Livingstone and Brevis to travel well
London Spirit are the more volatile side, partly by design. Liam Livingstone captains and bowls spin, Dewald Brevis can win a game on his own, and Jonny Bairstow brings a different threat at the top. When those three fire the Spirit beat anyone, as they did against MI London by 7 wickets on 29 July.
The concern is consistency, not quality. They lost to Southern Brave by 5 wickets on 1 August and to Trent Rockets by 4 wickets on 26 July. Adam Zampa gives Livingstone a wicket-taking option through the middle, which is where this game is likely to be settled.
Key Matchups: where Leeds power meets Spirit spin
Harry Brook vs Adam Zampa: Zampa is London Spirit's control option through the middle overs, and Brook is the one batter capable of taking that spell away entirely. Whoever wins those balls probably wins the innings.
Brydon Carse vs Dewald Brevis: Brevis scores fast or falls trying, and Carse's pace into the pitch is the hosts' most direct answer to him.
Liam Livingstone vs Zak Crawley: Two captains who set the tone with the bat. Crawley opening against Livingstone's spin is the tactical decision each will have thought about first.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
These two have met several times since The Hundred began, but Sunrisers Leeds were rebranded from Northern Superchargers, so we will not put a number on an all-time count across that name change. Better to say nothing than publish a figure we cannot stand behind.
Recent evidence is solid. Sunrisers Leeds beat Manchester Super Giants by 8 wickets on 28 July and Southern Brave by 5 runs on 25 July. London Spirit beat MI London by 7 wickets on 29 July but lost to Manchester Super Giants by 7 runs on 23 July.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Headingley, Leeds โ a ground with short square boundaries and a surface that has generally rewarded batting in this competition, without turning games into pure run-fests.
- Pitch: Chasing and defending have been close to an even split here in The Hundred, which is why our scenario map moves by only a point either way.
- Weather: An early-evening start in Leeds in August, so cloud cover and a little help for the seamers early are both realistic.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ with no reliable ground bias to lean on, the measured competition-wide pattern favours bowling, and the captains have generally taken that option. See our SUN vs LS toss call, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: the phases that decide Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit
The first 25 balls set the terms. If Overton and the Spirit seamers find movement and remove Crawley or Brook early, the hosts' batting looks far more ordinary. If both survive that, Headingley's short square boundaries start to tell.
The middle is where our number comes from. Zampa and Livingstone give London Spirit two spinners who can hold a length, but the hosts have more batters capable of clearing the rope against spin. Across 100 balls that difference is worth a few runs an over, and a few runs an over is the whole game.
The last 25 balls favour Leeds slightly. Ellis has the death variations and Carse the pace, and the hosts' lower order goes deeper. In a format this short the side that handles the closing stretch usually wins.
Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit Prediction: why the hosts edge it
We make it Sunrisers Leeds at 57%, a shade above the market's 55.2%. Batting depth is the reason: more players who can win a short game from a standing start, and a bowling attack that covers both the new ball and the last 25.
The case against is Brevis and Livingstone, and it is a real one. London Spirit beat MI London by 7 wickets on 29 July, and a team with two match-winners of that kind is never the right price at long odds. Our scenario map moves by a single point either way, so there is no batting order worth waiting for. If you like the hosts, the question is the price, not the toss.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrisers Leeds | 57.1% | 55.2% | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| London Spirit | 42.9% | 44.8% | 2.20 | 2.33 |
The edge is on the hosts, it is small, and it lives only at the top of the board. Our fair price on Sunrisers Leeds is 1.75. The best available 1.80 is worth 2.8% over that, which is a small-stakes call and worth taking only if the price is still there when you look. At the market average of 1.71 there is nothing in it. London Spirit at 2.20 sit shorter than our fair 2.33, so the market has the underdog about right. Odds captured on 3 August 2026.
Our model is under two points above the market on Sunrisers Leeds. Where we see value is narrow and specific: the top price, not the average, and at small stakes. The bookmakers and our model agree on the favourite and very nearly on the number, which is what an efficiently priced game looks like.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit in The Hundred?
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to beat London Spirit at Headingley on 4 August 2026, with a 57.1% probability. Their batting depth, led by Harry Brook and captain Zak Crawley, is the main reason. London Spirit are given a 42.9% chance.
What is the toss prediction for Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit?
Our toss call for Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit at Headingley is to field first. The ground has no reliable chase-or-defend bias in this competition, so the call rests on the measured competition-wide pattern, which favours bowling. Confidence in this one is low.
What are the best odds for Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit?
The best available price on Sunrisers Leeds is 1.80 against our fair odds of 1.75, an edge of 2.8%. London Spirit's best price of 2.20 is shorter than our fair 2.33. At the market average of 1.71 on the hosts, there is no edge left.
Who captains Sunrisers Leeds and London Spirit?
Zak Crawley captains Sunrisers Leeds and Liam Livingstone captains London Spirit in The Hundred 2026. Both also bat in the top order, so each sets the tone for his side with bat as well as with tactics.
What is the pitch like at Headingley for The Hundred?
Headingley in Leeds has short square boundaries and a surface that has generally rewarded batting in The Hundred, with chasing and defending close to an even split. That balance is why our prediction for this match barely moves with the batting order.
How did Sunrisers Leeds and London Spirit last perform?
Sunrisers Leeds lost to Trent Rockets by 5 runs on 2 August 2026. London Spirit lost to Southern Brave by 5 wickets on 1 August 2026. Both sides therefore come into this Headingley fixture looking to bounce back from a defeat.
How does the toss affect Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit?
Barely. If Sunrisers Leeds bat first our prediction rises to 58.1%, and if London Spirit bat first it falls to 56.1%, a move of one point either way. That means you can back this match before the toss at Headingley without waiting to see the coin.
