The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips
BP Birmingham Phoenix
SUN Sunrisers Leeds
Edgbaston, Birminghamยท
๐ฏ 277/480 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Sunrisers Leeds predicted to win with 59.4% probability
- โข The batting order swings this game by 7 points each way at Edgbaston, so the toss is the real betting decision
- โข Zak Crawley's side arrive on the back of wins over Southern Brave, Manchester Super Giants and London Spirit; Joe Weatherley's hosts have lost four dated fixtures since 24 July
- โข Toss call: field first, matching the clear majority of T20 captains who chase in our data
- โข Sunrisers Leeds carry a marginal pre-toss edge at the listed price that grows to double digits if Birmingham Phoenix bat first
Small edge โ the price sits just above our fair line. Worth noting, size accordingly.
๐ฐ 15% Rakeback Boost at Gamdom
$5,000,000 Prize Pool
Sweet Holiday Chase ยท 15% rakeback with code maximus88
๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
Flip the Coin โ See How Probabilities Shift
Bowl first โ 63% chase win rate at Edgbaston, Birmingham
You called the toss. Now call the coin.
The toss vote here is free. CricketFlip is the real TON heads-or-tails game: Standard flips are 50/50 and pay 2ร if you win.
Call heads or tails โHow batting order moves our Sunrisers Leeds price.
- If Sunrisers Leeds bat first, our number compresses toward the coin and the listed price is an avoid
- If the Leeds price drifts out before the toss, the pre-toss edge stops being marginal
- A confirmed absence among the cleared core names on either side would move this by several points
- Rain shortening the match compresses both numbers toward even money
Our AI model makes Sunrisers Leeds 59.4% favourites at Edgbaston, and the market broadly agrees. What the flat number hides is the swing: whoever bats first moves this prediction seven points, which turns Friday's toss into the actual betting event. The hosts have had a rough fortnight; the visitors keep finding ways to win.
Can Joe Weatherley steady a sliding Birmingham Phoenix?
Birmingham Phoenix's season turned hard after a winning start. Our settled records show one home win, against Trent Rockets on 24 July 2026, and four defeats since, to Manchester Super Giants, Southern Brave, Welsh Fire and most recently Trent Rockets again by 7 wickets on 5 August.
Joe Weatherley captains, having taken the job in late July after an injury reshuffle, and the pieces around him are genuine. Rehan Ahmed's leg-spin is the control lever, Donovan Ferreira gives the middle order punch behind the stumps, Mitchell Owen hits a long ball, and Ben Dwarshuis brings left-arm angle up front.
The problem has been stringing those parts together on the night, and Edgbaston has offered no shelter so far.
Zak Crawley's Sunrisers Leeds arrive as the form side
Sunrisers Leeds have the sharper recent ledger: our settled records show wins over Southern Brave on 25 July 2026, Manchester Super Giants and London Spirit, against one narrow loss to Trent Rockets on 2 August.
Zak Crawley leads from the top of the order, with Harry Brook the wicket the whole ground will want. Dan Lawrence gives the middle overs invention, Mitchell Marsh adds power plus seam overs, and Brydon Carse brings genuine pace at the death.
It is a batting-heavy core with enough bowling depth to defend, and the model rates their balance clearly ahead of the hosts' current mix.
Key Matchups: Rehan Ahmed against Harry Brook's middle overs
Rehan Ahmed vs Harry Brook: The leg-spinner against the tournament's most watchable batter is the central duel. If Ahmed's ten to fifteen balls go for singles, Birmingham Phoenix stay in the game; if Brook lines him up, the chase rate at this ground does the rest.
Ben Dwarshuis vs Zak Crawley: Left-arm swing into a tall right-handed opener is the hosts' best early lever. Crawley's starts set Leeds' tempo, so the first twenty balls of his innings carry outsized weight.
Brydon Carse vs Birmingham Phoenix's death hitting: Ferreira and Owen are the hosts' late-innings engine. Carse's pace at the end is exactly the tool built to cap them, and those final overs could decide the ceiling this pitch allows.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
Sunrisers Leeds are a new name in the 2026 competition, so there is no meaningful head-to-head ledger to lean on under this identity. The honest read is each side's dated 2026 results: Leeds have beaten Southern Brave, Manchester Super Giants and London Spirit since 25 July, while Birmingham Phoenix's only win in our records came against Trent Rockets on 24 July 2026.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Edgbaston, Birmingham โ Birmingham Phoenix's home ground, and in our canonical venue data its Hundred matches have gone the chasing side's way 63% of the time.
- Pitch: A true surface that rewards stroke play; targets here age badly once the field spreads and the ball skids on under lights.
- Weather: An evening start means dew can slick the ball for the side bowling second, another nudge toward chasing.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ T20 captains field about 62.6% of the time in our data, and this ground's 63% chase record gives no reason to argue. The full Edgbaston, Birmingham toss analysis covers the field-first reasoning in depth.
Match Analysis: Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost
The middle forty balls decide it. Birmingham Phoenix's route to an upset runs through Rehan Ahmed squeezing Brook and Lawrence while wickets sit in hand; every dot ball there pushes the required rate toward the hosts' death bowling, which has been their most reliable phase.
Leeds' counter is simple depth. Crawley and Brook set platforms, and Marsh's ability to bat top four then bowl ten balls lets them carry an extra hitter. Against a Phoenix attack that has leaked late runs through its recent dated defeats, that surplus usually tells.
And hovering over all of it: whoever wins the toss will almost certainly field. The chasing side at Edgbaston starts ahead, which is exactly why our scenario map, not the flat 59%, is the number to act on.
Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction: why the toss decides the value
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to win with 59.4% probability, and the market sits within a whisker of the same number. At the best 1.70 the pre-toss edge is marginal; if Birmingham Phoenix are put in to bat, Leeds' fair price shortens and the same ticket becomes a roughly 13% edge. Back the visitors, but let the coin confirm the size of the bet.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Phoenix | 40.6% | 40.6% | 2.35 | 2.46 |
| Sunrisers Leeds | 59.4% | 59.5% | 1.70 | 1.68 |
Sunrisers Leeds hold a marginal edge that a chase would multiply. The best 1.70 sits just above our 1.68 fair price, a marginal pre-toss edge, while Birmingham Phoenix at 2.35 fall short of the 2.46 we require. The market broadly agrees with our numbers here; the upside is conditional, because a Leeds chase turns the same ticket into a roughly 13% edge. Odds captured on 6 August 2026 across 35 bookmakers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds in The Hundred?
Our AI model predicts Sunrisers Leeds to beat Birmingham Phoenix with 59.4% probability at Edgbaston on 7 August 2026. Leeds' run of wins against the hosts' slide in our settled records is the core of the case.
What is the toss prediction for Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Field first. T20 captains choose to chase about 62.6% of the time in our data, and Edgbaston's 63% chase record in our canonical venue data points the same way.
What are the best odds for Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds?
At the 6 August 2026 capture across 35 bookmakers, the best price on Sunrisers Leeds was 1.70 against our 1.68 fair odds, a marginal edge, while Birmingham Phoenix's best 2.35 sat below our fair 2.46.
How does the toss affect Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds at Edgbaston?
Heavily. Our prediction moves seven points each way with batting order: Sunrisers Leeds rise to 66.4% if Birmingham Phoenix bat first, and fall to 52.4% if Leeds bat first, so the chasing side inherits the advantage either way.
Who captains Birmingham Phoenix and Sunrisers Leeds in 2026?
Joe Weatherley captains Birmingham Phoenix, having taken over in late July 2026, and Zak Crawley captains Sunrisers Leeds. Both lead from the top of the batting order.
What time does Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds start?
The match starts at 6:30 PM local time at Edgbaston, Birmingham on Friday 7 August 2026, which is 11:00 PM IST and 17:30 UTC.
