RCB-W Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women
UP-W UP Warriorz
Women's Premier League
Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women vs UP Warriorz Match Prediction
Last updated: 12 January 2026
Team Context and Recent Form
Royal Challengers Bengaluru opened WPL 2026 with a statement victory over defending champions Mumbai Indians. Nadine de Klerk delivered one of the great all-round performances in WPL history - 4/26 with the ball followed by an unbeaten 63 off 44 balls to chase down 155 off the final delivery. Captain Smriti Mandhana remains one of the most prolific run-scorers in women's cricket, having crossed 10,000 international runs in 2025.
UP Warriorz suffered a narrow 10-run defeat to Gujarat Giants despite Phoebe Litchfield's brilliant 78 off 40 balls on WPL debut. The middle order collapsed from 73/1 to 74/4 in the space of four balls, exposing fragility that new captain Meg Lanning must address. The head-to-head stands at 3-3 across all WPL seasons, but UP won both 2025 meetings including a Super Over thriller.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nadine de Klerk | RCB-W | All-rounder | 63* + 4/26 vs MI |
| Smriti Mandhana | RCB-W | Captain/Opener | 646 WPL runs, SR 128 |
| Phoebe Litchfield | UP-W | Batter | 78 off 40 vs GG |
| Meg Lanning | UP-W | Captain | 952 WPL runs, 4x T20 WC winner |
| Sophie Ecclestone | UP-W | Spinner | 2/32 vs GG |
Venue and Toss
DY Patil Stadium has favoured teams batting first in WPL 2026 - 3 of 4 matches won by the side setting the target. Average first innings score is around 160-170. With evening dew expected, the toss winner will likely elect to bowl first to exploit conditions in the chase.
Our Prediction
RCB hold a slight edge at 55%. De Klerk's match-winning heroics give them momentum, and their bowling attack - led by Lauren Bell (1/14 from 4 overs vs MI) and Shreyanka Patil - looks more cohesive than UP's expensive unit. However, RCB are without Ellyse Perry (personal reasons) and Pooja Vastrakar (hamstring injury), reducing their all-round depth.
UP's middle-order vulnerability is a concern. Losing three wickets in four balls against Gujarat suggests fragility under pressure. Lanning's tactical nous and Litchfield's explosiveness make them dangerous, but they need more contributions from Deepti Sharma and Deandra Dottin.
Betting Value
RCB at 1.80 implies 55.6% probability. Our model gives RCB 55%, creating a -0.6% edge - the market actually favours RCB slightly more than we do. UP at 2.05 implies 48.8% against our 45%, also offering no value.
Neither side clears our 2% edge threshold. The market has priced this evenly-matched contest accurately - RCB's bowling depth and de Klerk's form balanced against UP's firepower with Lanning and Litchfield. RCB remain our pick in what should be a tight contest.
