The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets Prediction & Betting Tips
BP Birmingham Phoenix
TR Trent Rockets
Edgbaston, Birminghamยท
โก Key Takeaways
- โข Trent Rockets predicted to win with 54.5% probability, a rounded confidence of 55%
- โข Our model and the bookmaker consensus sit within a tenth of a point of each other, so the head-to-head price offers almost nothing
- โข Batting order flips the favourite: whoever chases at Edgbaston is the side our model prefers
- โข Trent Rockets arrive as the beaten 2025 finalists, and they won both meetings with Birmingham Phoenix last season
- โข Available prices are 2.20 on Birmingham Phoenix and 1.77 on Trent Rockets, against fair odds of 2.20 and 1.83
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
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Bowl first โ 63% chase win rate at Edgbaston, Birmingham
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Call heads or tails โTrent Rockets edge a market-tight contest.
Our AI model predicts Trent Rockets to beat Birmingham Phoenix at Edgbaston on 24 July 2026, but only by 54.5% to 45.5%. That is one of the closest calls of the opening week, and the bookmakers agree almost exactly. When the model and the market converge like this, the value moves somewhere else, and here it moves to the toss.
๐ฏ The Scenario Map
How our prediction shifts based on batting order. Plan your bet before the toss.
- An overcast Birmingham evening that helps the new ball would strengthen the case for batting first and cut the chasing side's edge by roughly 3%
- A dry, gripping surface slows the chase and pulls both scenarios back toward the base numbers
- Either side losing a frontline overseas quick before the toss moves the base prediction by around 4%
- A rain-shortened game compresses the chase and magnifies the toss further, pushing the chasing side beyond 55%
Can Birmingham Phoenix turn home advantage into a win?
Birmingham Phoenix begin 2026 with a squad built around players who already know this competition. Joe Clarke and Will Smeed have both scored heavily in The Hundred, Smeed as one of its quicker scorers, and Jacob Bethell adds an England-capped middle order option who can bowl. That top order keeps the Phoenix within a single point of the visitors.
The bowling is where the 2026 auction changed them most. Rehan Ahmed is the most productive wicket-taker among the players named in this fixture, and he arrives alongside two bowlers new to the competition: Mustafizur Rahman and Usman Tariq. Neither has played a Hundred match before, which cuts both ways. Batters have no film on them, and the Phoenix have no data on how they handle 100 balls.
Why Trent Rockets start as the market's pick
Trent Rockets were the beaten finalists in 2025, losing to Oval Invincibles by 26 runs at Lord's. That run to the final is the strongest recent form line either side brings into this game, and it is a large part of why the bookmakers make them favourites.
Their batting is deep and experienced. Ben Duckett has more Hundred runs than anyone else named in this match, Tom Banton has been a consistent presence across seasons, and Finn Allen and Tim David give the middle order genuine range. Mitchell Santner offers left-arm spin and lower-order runs. On paper it is the stronger batting unit, and the market has priced it that way.
Key Matchups: where the 100 balls are won
Rehan Ahmed vs Trent Rockets' middle order: Ahmed's leg spin is the Phoenix's most reliable wicket-taking option, and the Rockets stack left and right handers through the middle. If he takes his allocation in the middle 40 balls rather than at the death, he decides how far the visitors get.
Ben Duckett vs the new ball at Edgbaston: Duckett scores fastest when he can play through the line early. The Phoenix have two unfamiliar bowlers to throw at him, and how quickly he reads them will shape the first 25 balls of whichever innings he plays.
Will Smeed vs Mitchell Santner: Smeed's strike rate is the highest of any batter named here, and Santner's left-arm spin is the Rockets' most likely answer to it. This is the matchup that most often decides whether the Phoenix post or chase a competitive total.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
Birmingham Phoenix and Trent Rockets have met regularly since The Hundred began in 2021, and there has rarely been much between them. The most recent evidence favours the visitors: Trent Rockets won both meetings in the 2025 season, first at Edgbaston on 8 August 2025 by six wickets, then at Trent Bridge on 27 August 2025 by three wickets. Those two results are the reason the market leans toward the Rockets even though the Phoenix are at home.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Edgbaston, Birmingham โ Capacity 25,000. Birmingham Phoenix play their home matches here, and it is one of the loudest grounds on the circuit when the home side is chasing.
- Pitch: Hundred matches at Edgbaston have leaned toward the side batting second, and first-innings totals in the 100-ball format run lower than a full T20 crowd expects.
- Weather: A late July evening start in Birmingham. Any cloud cover would assist the new ball; a clear night keeps the surface true and favours the chase.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ the ground's Hundred record favours the chasing side, and captains in the shortest format field first far more often than they bat. Our toss prediction page for this match lays out the chase-rate context in full.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The powerplay sets the ceiling in a 100-ball game more than it does in a T20, because there are simply fewer balls to recover. Both sides open with batters who take that on. If the Phoenix lose two inside the first 25 balls, their middle order does not have the depth to rebuild and accelerate in the time left.
The middle phase is where Rehan Ahmed and Mitchell Santner decide things. Spin through the middle 40 balls is the most reliable way to slow a Hundred innings, and both sides have exactly one high-quality option. Whichever captain gets the better matchup for those balls usually controls the total.
The chase is the third factor and the most important one, and whichever side bats first is handing the other the better half of the night. Edgbaston's record in this competition points toward the side batting second, and our scenario map puts a seven-point swing on the batting order alone. That is a bigger effect than anything separating these two teams on paper.
Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets Prediction: Rockets by a fraction
Our model makes Trent Rockets 54.5% favourites, and their run to the 2025 final plus two wins over the Phoenix last season justify it. But this is a narrow call rather than a confident one, and the batting order matters more than the badge. If the Phoenix end up chasing, our model flips them into narrow favourites at 52.5%, and the sensible read is to wait for the toss before committing.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Phoenix | 45.5% | 45.6% | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Trent Rockets | 54.5% | 54.4% | 1.77 | 1.83 |
An efficiently priced match-winner market. Our model lands within a tenth of a point of the bookmaker consensus on both sides, which is as close to agreement as these two numbers get. Birmingham Phoenix at 2.20 sit level with our fair odds of 2.20, while Trent Rockets at 1.77 are shorter than their fair value of 1.83. The head-to-head market is not where the edge is on this fixture. The toss is: our scenario map moves the Phoenix from 38.5% to 52.5% purely on batting order, so the price worth watching is the one available after the coin lands. Odds captured on 19 July 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts Trent Rockets to win with 54.5% probability against Birmingham Phoenix at Edgbaston on 24 July 2026. Trent Rockets reached the 2025 final and won both meetings between these sides last season. It is a narrow call rather than a confident one.
What is the toss prediction for Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets?
Field first. Hundred matches at Edgbaston have leaned toward the side batting second, and captains in the shortest format choose to field far more often than they bat. The team winning the toss at Edgbaston on 24 July 2026 should put the opposition in.
What are the best odds for Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets?
Birmingham Phoenix are available at 2.20 and Trent Rockets at 1.77 for this Hundred 2026 fixture. Our fair odds are 2.20 and 1.83 respectively, so the Phoenix price sits level with fair value while the Rockets are shorter than fair. The match-winner market is efficiently priced.
How does the toss affect Birmingham Phoenix vs Trent Rockets?
It changes the favourite. If Trent Rockets bat first, Birmingham Phoenix rise to 52.5% chasing at Edgbaston. If Birmingham Phoenix bat first, they fall to 38.5% and Trent Rockets strengthen to 61.5%. That seven-point swing is larger than anything separating the two squads.
What is the pitch like at Edgbaston for The Hundred?
Edgbaston holds 25,000 and its Hundred matches have leaned toward the side batting second. First-innings totals in the 100-ball format at this ground run lower than the same crowd would expect from a T20 at the venue.
Have Birmingham Phoenix and Trent Rockets met recently?
Yes. Trent Rockets won both 2025 meetings with Birmingham Phoenix, by six wickets at Edgbaston on 8 August 2025 and by three wickets at Trent Bridge on 27 August 2025. The two sides have met regularly since The Hundred began in 2021 with little between them.
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