Northern Brave W vs Wellington Blaze W Prediction - Women's Super Smash 2025-26

Wellington Blaze are heavy favourites—and rightly so. The defending champions are 2-0, with Amelia Kerr in career-best form. Northern Brave have not played a competitive match yet this season. However, at 1.37 odds (73% implied), there is no betting value. Our 72% assessment means -1% edge. SKIP for betting.

Match Context

This is Match 6 of the Women's Super Smash 2025-26 at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. It is an afternoon match (12:40 NZDT). Weather shows 45% rain chance—a DLS-shortened game is possible.

Team News

Wellington Blaze: Captain Amelia Kerr is in sensational form. She scored 106* off 61 balls vs Auckland Hearts on Dec 29—her maiden T20 century. Georgia Plimmer (62) put on a 155-run opening partnership with Kerr—a Blaze record. Xara Jetly has 3 wickets in 2 matches. This is a stacked squad with multiple White Ferns internationals.

Northern Brave: Captain Jess Watkin leads a side that has not played a competitive T20 this season. Their opening match vs Auckland Hearts on Dec 26 was abandoned after just 2.2 overs due to rain. They lack match sharpness. Crucially, Chamari Athapaththu is NOT available this season—she was their star last year with 219 runs and 15 wickets. That is a massive loss.

Head-to-Head

Wellington have won the last 3 meetings against Northern Brave. In the Jan 2025 Eliminator, Wellington won by 23 runs (133/6 vs 110 all out). The psychological edge is firmly with the Blaze.

Why Wellington Will Likely Win (72%)

• Exceptional form: 2-0 this season with dominant performances. Kerr's 106* is an all-time great innings.
• Northern Brave rust: No match practice—their only game was washed out after 2.2 overs.
• Chamari absent: Northern Brave's best player from last season is not in the 2025-26 squad.
• H2H dominance: Won last 3 meetings. Northern Brave have a mental block against Wellington.
• Quality gap: Multiple White Ferns (Kerr, Plimmer, Jess Kerr) vs primarily domestic players.

Why No Betting Value

• Wellington overpriced: 1.37 odds = 73% implied. Our 72% assessment = -1% edge. No value.
• Northern Brave also no value: 3.04 odds = 32.9% implied. Our 28% assessment = -4.9% edge.
• Rain risk: 45% chance of showers adds variance. A washout voids bets.

Venue Analysis

Bay Oval is a high-scoring venue with an average of 140-150 for women's T20s. Teams winning the toss prefer to chase (70%). The coastal venue offers some pace assistance, but spinners have good economy.

Final Verdict

Wellington's form, Northern Brave's rust, and the H2H record all point one way. But the market has priced this correctly.

Wellington Blaze at 72% confidence is our pick. SKIP for betting—no value.

Value Note

Bookmakers have Wellington Blaze at 1.37 (73% implied). Our 72% assessment = -1% edge.

Northern Brave at 3.04 (32.9% implied). Our 28% assessment = -4.9% edge.

SKIP for betting. Market is fairly priced. Rain adds further variance—not worth the risk.