Punjab vs Madhya Pradesh Match Prediction

Madhya Pradesh are strong favourites as Punjab enter their VHT quarterfinal without captain Shubman Gill and pace spearhead Arshdeep Singh. Both are on India ODI duty against New Zealand. MP arrive in superb form after thrashing defending champions Karnataka by 7 wickets, with captain Venkatesh Iyer smashing an unbeaten 65 off just 33 balls.

Team Context and Recent Form

Punjab (6W-1L, Group C winners): Topped their group with a thrilling 1-run win over Mumbai on January 8. Prabhsimran Singh and Naman Dhir have been consistent, while Harnoor Singh scored 94 not out against Goa. However, losing Gill and Arshdeep to national duty is significant. Captain Abhishek Sharma has struggled with just 86 runs in three matches at average 28.66.

Madhya Pradesh (5W-2L, Group A runners-up): Qualified in style by demolishing Karnataka, chasing 208 in just 23.2 overs. Venkatesh Iyer is in devastating form - 65* off 33 balls with a strike rate of 197. Rajat Patidar is fit and available after his injury scare. Left-arm spinner Shivang Kumar took 5/45 against Karnataka, giving MP a potent bowling option.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Punjab are significantly weakened without Gill and Arshdeep. While they showed resilience beating Mumbai by 1 run, MP have the momentum and firepower. Venkatesh Iyer is in match-winning form, Patidar adds batting depth, and Shivang Kumar provides spin threat. Unless Prabhsimran or Harnoor produce something special, MP should advance to the semi-finals.

Madhya Pradesh at 58% confidence is our pick.

Betting Value

Punjab at 1.75 implies 57.1% probability. Our model gives Punjab 42%, creating a -15.1% edge - no value backing the favourites. Madhya Pradesh at 2.08 implies 48.1% against our 58%, delivering a +9.9% edge - strong value well above our 2% threshold.

Back Madhya Pradesh with 1.5 units. Iyer's form and Punjab's depleted squad make this excellent underdog value. MP to reach the semi-finals.