The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire Prediction & Betting Tips
BP Birmingham Phoenix
WEL Welsh Fire
Edgbaston, Birminghamยท
๐ฏ 269/467 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Birmingham Phoenix predicted to win with 50.6% probability, the tightest call on our board this week.
- โข Phoenix added Australian left-arm quick Ben Dwarshuis as a replacement signing for this season.
- โข Welsh Fire won the most recent meeting between these teams, at Edgbaston in 2025.
- โข Toss call: Field first, and batting order moves this match more than any team-sheet detail
- โข Phoenix at 2.05 beat a fair price of 1.98, so the value sits with the home side while that price lasts.
Small edge โ the price sits just above our fair line. Worth noting, size accordingly.
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Bowl first โ 63% chase win rate at Edgbaston, Birmingham
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Call heads or tails โHow the odds shift with batting order.
- If Phoenix bat first, our call flips to Welsh Fire and the 1.91 becomes the live price.
- If Ben Dwarshuis misses out, Phoenix lose their newest new-ball option and drop a couple of points.
- If the market shortens Phoenix below 1.98, the edge is gone and there is no bet at that price.
Birmingham Phoenix, and the price still pays. Our AI model predicts Birmingham Phoenix to win this Match 15 fixture with 50.6% probability, the narrowest margin we have published this week. Welsh Fire sit at 49.4%, and the bookmakers lean marginally the other way, which is where the value comes from. At Edgbaston, this is a genuine 51% call rather than a comfortable one.
Can Birmingham Phoenix turn home advantage into a narrow win?
Phoenix play at Edgbaston, the ground they know best, and their squad is built around players who can change a short game quickly. Rehan Ahmed gives them a leg-spinner who is also a genuine batting option, useful where a captain needs one bowler to cover two roles.
Donovan Ferreira keeps wicket and bats with intent, and Mitchell Owen is a batting all-rounder who bowls into the middle phase. The newest addition is Ben Dwarshuis, the Australian left-arm quick who joined as a replacement signing this season.
Dwarshuis matters more than a replacement signing usually would. Left-arm pace with the new ball changes the angle a right-handed top order must handle, and in a format this short an early breakthrough is worth more than it looks.
Welsh Fire arrive with the stronger recent record in this fixture
Welsh Fire hold the most valuable piece of history here: they beat Phoenix in the most recent meeting between these sides, at Edgbaston in 2025.
Their squad reads well too. Phil Salt is the kind of opener who can settle a 100-ball chase inside twenty deliveries, and Rachin Ravindra is a top-order batter who also turns his arm over.
The bowling is where Welsh Fire look strongest. Marco Jansen brings left-arm pace and awkward bounce from a considerable height, and Chris Woakes is a seam-bowling all-rounder with a long record in English conditions. A serious pair to face on a warm, dry afternoon.
Key matchups: where the new ball decides it
Phil Salt vs Ben Dwarshuis: the opening exchange that shapes the innings. Salt scores quickly enough to take the game away inside the first twenty-five balls, and Dwarshuis is the bowler Phoenix signed to prevent exactly that. Left-arm pace angling across a right-hander is the problem Salt must solve early.
Rehan Ahmed vs Rachin Ravindra: leg-spin against a batter who plays spin as well as anyone in this Welsh Fire side, and who bowls it himself. Whoever wins this phase controls the middle.
Marco Jansen vs Donovan Ferreira: Jansen's height and left-arm angle against a keeper-batter who attacks from the start. Ferreira taking him on could produce the decisive burst of runs in a match this evenly rated.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
Three meetings between these teams are individually documented, and they split in a way that favours neither side. Phoenix won when the sides met at Birmingham in 2021. Phoenix won again in Cardiff in 2024, by 5 wickets with 7 balls remaining, after Welsh Fire posted 146 for 8 and Phoenix replied with 149 for 5.
Welsh Fire won the most recent meeting, at Edgbaston in 2025, and that is the result closest to the current squads. We have deliberately not published an all-time record here, because meetings from two intervening seasons could not be confirmed against a primary source.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Edgbaston, Birmingham holds around 25,000 and is Birmingham Phoenix's home ground. A crowd behind the home side is a genuine factor in a format this short.
- Pitch: we have not published a surface read here, because no reliable pitch or scoring profile for this ground in this competition could be confirmed. We would rather say nothing than guess.
- Weather: dry and settled on 1 August 2026, with a 0% chance of rain across the match window, around 20ยฐC at the 2:30pm start and rising to about 22ยฐC, partly cloudy becoming mainly clear. Humidity sits at 52%.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ this is an afternoon fixture that finishes before evening, so there is no dew to chase, but captains in this format still field first far more often than they bat, and our model gives the chasing side the better of this particular match-up. We log every toss call publicly โ the Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire pick is on the toss page.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
Batting order matters more here than anything on either team sheet. Our base call gives Phoenix 50.6%, but that number moves seven points either way once the toss settles whichever side bats first. That swing is wider than the gap between these teams, which tells you how much of this contest is decided before a ball is bowled.
The second factor is the new ball. Both sides have invested in left-arm pace, Dwarshuis for Phoenix and Jansen for Welsh Fire. In a 100-ball match there is no recovery time: two down inside the first twenty-five balls usually means playing catch-up.
The third is spin through the middle. Rehan Ahmed is the more specialised option, while Ravindra gives Welsh Fire a part-time answer. That difference is where our model finds its slender margin.
Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire prediction: Phoenix by the narrowest margin
We are on Birmingham Phoenix at 50.6%. It is a home fixture, they have the more specialised spin option, and their newest signing addresses the phase where short-format matches are decided. Welsh Fire have the better attack on paper and won the last meeting, which is why this sits where it does rather than higher.
The reason to be interested is the price rather than the margin. A 50.6% call gives a fair price of 1.98, so anything above that is genuine value, and Phoenix are available at 2.05.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Phoenix | 50.6% | 48.2% | 2.05 | 1.98 |
| Welsh Fire | 49.4% | 51.8% | 1.91 | 2.02 |
Value sits with Birmingham Phoenix at 2.05. Our fair price for Phoenix is 1.98, so 2.05 represents an edge of roughly 3.7%. That is a real but modest edge, so it deserves a small commitment rather than a big one, and it only exists while the price holds at 2.05 or better. Welsh Fire at 1.91 are shorter than our fair price of 2.02, so there is no case for backing them at the current number. Odds captured on 31 July 2026.
Why We Disagree With the Market The best available prices make Welsh Fire a narrow favourite. Our model does not, and two specific things sit behind that. Phoenix are at home, and this is a 2:30pm start that finishes before evening, so there is no dew to reward the chasing side in the way an evening fixture would. Phoenix have also won two of the three documented meetings between these teams, including one at this ground. Neither factor is decisive, which is why our margin is narrow rather than large.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts Birmingham Phoenix to beat Welsh Fire with 50.6% probability in Match 15 of The Hundred 2026 at Edgbaston on 1 August 2026. Welsh Fire are rated at 49.4%, so this is one of the closest calls of the competition so far.
What is the toss prediction for Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire?
Our toss call for Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire at Edgbaston is to field first. This is a 2:30pm start that finishes before evening, so dew is not a factor, but captains in the 100-ball format choose to chase far more often than they set a target.
What are the best odds for Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire?
The best available price for Birmingham Phoenix is 2.05 against our fair price of 1.98, an edge of about 3.7%. Welsh Fire are available at 1.91 against a fair price of 2.02, which is shorter than fair value. Odds were captured on 31 July 2026 and can move before the 1 August start.
How does the toss affect Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire?
The toss is worth seven percentage points either way in this fixture. If Welsh Fire bat first, Birmingham Phoenix rise to 57.6%. If Birmingham Phoenix bat first, they fall to 43.6% and Welsh Fire become the pick at 56.4%.
Who won the last meeting between Birmingham Phoenix and Welsh Fire?
Welsh Fire won the most recent documented meeting between Birmingham Phoenix and Welsh Fire, at Edgbaston in 2025. Birmingham Phoenix won the two meetings before that, at Birmingham in 2021 and by 5 wickets in Cardiff in 2024.
What is the weather forecast for Birmingham Phoenix vs Welsh Fire at Edgbaston?
The forecast for Edgbaston on 1 August 2026 is dry, with a 0% chance of rain across the match window. Temperatures start around 20ยฐC and rise to about 22ยฐC, with partly cloudy skies becoming mainly clear and humidity at 52%.
