The Hundred 2026
Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips
TR Trent Rockets
SUN Sunrisers Leeds
Trent Bridge, Nottinghamยท
๐ฏ 269/469 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Trent Rockets predicted to win with 53.6% probability
- โข The Rockets won their last three, all of them chasing, the latest a six-wicket defeat of Manchester Super Giants on 31 July 2026
- โข Our model rates Trent Bridge neutral between setting and chasing, and a 2:30pm start means no dew, so the toss moves nothing here
- โข Toss read: expect the winner to field first, as most toss winners at this ground do
- โข Value sits with the Rockets at 1.95 or better, 4.3% above our fair line of 1.87
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
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Bowl first โ toss winners field 75% of the time at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
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Call heads or tails โHow batting order moves our price here.
- A late Rockets absence, especially Mitchell Santner or Matt Henry, would soften the bowling edge we price in and pull this toward even
- A dry, gripping surface would raise Abrar Ahmed's influence and close the gap by roughly 2-3%
- Any rain-shortened contest compresses the probabilities toward even, and the forecast dryness is the only thing keeping that risk low
Trent Rockets to win, but narrowly. Our AI model prices the hosts at 53.6% for Match 17 of The Hundred 2026 against Sunrisers Leeds at Trent Bridge on Sunday 2 August 2026, and the margin is the story: this is a meeting of the competition's two form sides, separated by almost nothing.
Why Trent Rockets arrive as the form side
The Rockets have won their last three, every one of them chasing. They ran down London Spirit's total by 4 wickets at Trent Bridge on 26 July 2026, dismantled Welsh Fire by 9 wickets on 29 July 2026, and beat Manchester Super Giants by 6 wickets on 31 July 2026. Their only defeat of the season came early, a 10-run loss to Birmingham Phoenix on 24 July 2026, and even that was a chase that nearly landed.
Sam Billings captains a batting order with real depth. Finn Allen and Ben Duckett give the powerplay two gears, Tom Banton and Aneurin Donald hold the middle together, and Tim David exists to make the last twenty balls uncomfortable for whoever bowls them. That order has now completed three chases in six days, which is exactly the profile you want at a ground where most toss winners bowl first.
The ball is the quieter strength. Mitchell Santner's control through the middle and Matt Henry's new-ball threat give Billings two proven international operators, and it is their overs that have made the recent chases feel shorter than the scoreboard suggested.
Sunrisers Leeds bring England's Test spine to Trent Bridge
The rebranded Leeds side, playing their first season as Sunrisers Leeds after five years as Northern Superchargers, have quietly built their own run. Since losing their opener to MI London by 7 wickets on 21 July 2026, they have beaten Southern Brave by 5 runs on 25 July 2026 and hammered Manchester Super Giants by 8 wickets on 28 July 2026.
Zak Crawley captains, and the top order around him is the side's identity: Harry Brook is the wicket every opponent plans for, Dan Lawrence supplies the improvisation, and Ryan Rickelton and Tom Alsop give them two wicketkeeper-batters to shuffle as the surface demands. Mitchell Marsh adds power and overs, Brydon Carse brings genuine pace, and Abrar Ahmed's leg-spin is the attack's point of difference.
The one caveat is balance. Both of these sides beat Manchester Super Giants inside the last five days, but the Rockets did it while winning a third consecutive chase; Leeds have alternated between excellent and ordinary a little more, and 46.4% reflects that finer margin rather than any weakness.
Key matchups: the new ball, the squeeze and the leg-spinner
Matt Henry vs Zak Crawley: Henry's full, seaming new-ball spells against a captain who wants to drive on the up is the opening exchange that shapes everything after it. If Crawley survives the first fifteen balls, Leeds' innings tends to breathe.
Mitchell Santner vs Harry Brook: Brook is the middle-overs accelerator, Santner the middle-overs brake. Whichever of them wins those fifty balls probably wins the match, because both attacks are at their weakest either side of that phase.
Abrar Ahmed vs the Rockets' left-handers: Allen, Duckett and David all like pace on the ball. Abrar's wrong'un into a big Trent Bridge afternoon is the one puzzle in this game that the Rockets did not face in their July wins.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
These franchises met in every season from 2021 to 2025, all of it while the Leeds side played as Northern Superchargers. The one meeting with a full primary record at this ground came in 2021, when Trent Rockets 134/8 edged Northern Superchargers 132 by two wickets at Trent Bridge. The 2026 rebrand resets the name, not the rivalry.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Trent Bridge, Nottingham โ one of England's longest-established international grounds, and in this competition our venue model rates it dead even between setting a total and chasing one.
- Pitch: True and fair, with enough carry to reward the quicks early; our venue model gives neither innings order an edge here.
- Weather: A dry, mild afternoon forecast for Sunday 2 August 2026, with rain risk negligible and no evening dew in a 2:30pm start.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first, because most toss winners here choose to chase and an afternoon start means there is no dew penalty for bowling second. Our toss prediction for Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds is timestamped publicly before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The powerplay is a fair fight: Allen and Duckett against Carse and the new ball one way, Crawley against Henry the other. The numbers behind our 53.6% say the real separation is later, in the middle fifty balls, where Santner's overs travel for less than Leeds' equivalent and where Brook has to take a risk against the one bowler best equipped to punish it.
At the death the Rockets hold the cleaner matchup. Tim David against any fifth bowling option is a mismatch, and Leeds' attack leans hard on Carse and Abrar having overs left for exactly that phase. If Crawley has to spend them early to stop a chase settling, the finish opens up for the hosts.
What keeps this at 54% rather than anything stronger, once rounded, is that Leeds' top order is probably the best batting unit the Rockets have faced this season. Brook and Crawley in the same powerplay is a different examination from anything Welsh Fire or Manchester Super Giants offered this week.
Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds prediction: Rockets, narrowly
Our AI model makes Trent Rockets 53.6% favourites, and the market broadly agrees with us. Wins on 26, 29 and 31 July 2026, all of them chasing, home conditions they clearly read well, and the stronger death-overs matchup carry the day against a Leeds side whose top three could flip this on any given afternoon. Back the Rockets at 1.95 or better; below our 1.87 fair line the position is the team, not the price.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Rockets | 53.6% | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.87 |
| Sunrisers Leeds | 46.4% | 48.7% | 2.05 | 2.16 |
Value sits with the Rockets while 1.95 lasts. That price is 4.3% above our 1.87 fair line, a genuine edge on the favourite in a market that otherwise has this match about right. Sunrisers Leeds at 2.05 are shorter than our 2.16 fair odds, so the better play on the Leeds side of the book is patience: this fixture's live angle is the Rockets' price, and the toss market covered on our toss page. Odds captured on 1 August 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts Trent Rockets to win with 53.6% probability against Sunrisers Leeds at Trent Bridge on Sunday 2 August 2026. The Rockets won on 26, 29 and 31 July 2026, all chasing, while Leeds sit at 46.4% on the strength of their top order.
What is the toss prediction for Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds?
Field first. Most toss winners at Trent Bridge in this competition choose to chase, and the 2:30pm start on Sunday 2 August 2026 removes any dew concern about bowling second. Our model's match probability does not shift with the toss at this ground.
What are the best odds for Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds?
The best available price is 1.95 on Trent Rockets and 2.05 on Sunrisers Leeds. Against our fair odds of 1.87 and 2.16, the Rockets at 1.95 carry a 4.3% edge, while the Leeds price sits below fair value.
How does the toss affect Trent Rockets vs Sunrisers Leeds?
It does not move our number. Our venue model rates Trent Bridge neutral between setting and chasing in this competition, and with no dew in an afternoon game both batting orders leave Trent Rockets at 53.6%. The toss decides roles here, not probability.
What is the pitch like at Trent Bridge for The Hundred?
True and even-paced, with early carry for the quicks, and our venue model gives neither batting first nor chasing an edge at this ground. A dry, mild afternoon is forecast for the Sunday 2 August 2026 fixture, so conditions should hold through both innings.
Have Trent Rockets and Sunrisers Leeds played each other before?
Yes, in every season from 2021 to 2025, when the Leeds franchise was named Northern Superchargers. The fully documented Trent Bridge meeting came in 2021, when Trent Rockets made 134/8 to beat Northern Superchargers 132 by two wickets. The 2026 season is the franchise's first under the Sunrisers Leeds name.
