Derbyshire vs Leicestershire Toss Prediction (DER vs LEI)

Monday, 13 July 2026 · 01:00 IST · County Ground, Derby · Cricket

Last updated: 13 July 2026

Toss prediction page launched 11 July 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our Derbyshire vs Leicestershire match preview on 2 June 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✓ Decision called

Our predicted decision

bat first

From the article: "Toss: A clear bat-first lean. The side batting first has won markedly more often here, so expect the toss winner to bat and set a total."

What happened

Leicestershire elected to bat

Stamped 13 Jul, 09:30 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

Derbyshire won by 7 wickets (with 33 balls remaining) ✓ match-winner prediction correct

🏟️ What the toss means at County Ground, Derby

Toss impact: HIGH bat-first ground — chases succeed only 35% of the time here

The toss went Leicestershire's way — they chose to bat, so Derbyshire chase. In this branch our model makes Derbyshire 50.7% — fair odds 1.97 (LEI 2.03) against a pre-toss baseline of 56.7%.

How we made this Derbyshire vs Leicestershire toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see the field-first scoring method.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for DER vs LEI: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full Derbyshire vs Leicestershire prediction →

DER vs LEI toss prediction FAQ

Who won the DER vs LEI toss?

Leicestershire won the DER vs LEI toss and chose to bat first.

What did the toss winner choose in DER vs LEI?

Leicestershire chose to bat first. Our pre-toss call was bat first — the captain did what we predicted.

How does the toss affect the DER vs LEI match odds?

Meaningfully. County Ground, Derby favours batting first (chases succeed only 35% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 6 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →