India vs Pakistan Toss Prediction (IND vs PAK)

Sunday, 15 February 2026 · 19:00 IST · R. Premadasa Stadium · T20 WC

Last updated: 7 May 2026

Toss prediction page launched 7 May 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our India vs Pakistan match preview on 6 February 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✓ Decision called

Our predicted decision

field first

From the article: "The team winning the toss should choose to chase. Teams batting second at R. Premadasa have won 57% of T20Is at this ground. Heavy dew after 8:30 PM local time makes batting significantly easier in the second innings"

What happened

Pakistan elected to field

Stamped 7 May, 20:01 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

India won the match ✓ match-winner prediction correct

🏟️ What the toss means at R. Premadasa Stadium

Toss impact: Moderate bat-first ground — chases succeed only 48% of the time here

The toss went Pakistan's way — they chose to field, so Pakistan chase. In this branch our model makes India 76.1% — fair odds 1.31 (PAK 4.18) against a pre-toss baseline of 75.1%.

How we made this India vs Pakistan toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see how we predict toss decisions.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for IND vs PAK: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full India vs Pakistan prediction →

IND vs PAK toss prediction FAQ

Who won the IND vs PAK toss?

Pakistan won the IND vs PAK toss and chose to field first.

What did the toss winner choose in IND vs PAK?

Pakistan chose to field first. Our pre-toss call was field first — the captain did what we predicted.

How does the toss affect the IND vs PAK match odds?

Meaningfully. R. Premadasa Stadium favours batting first (chases succeed only 48% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 1 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →