Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Toss Prediction (PBKS vs MI)

Thursday, 14 May 2026 · 19:30 IST · Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium · IPL

Last updated: 14 May 2026

Toss prediction page launched 13 May 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians match preview on 28 March 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✗ Decision missed

Our predicted decision

bat first

From the article: "The toss winner will most likely bat first. Dharamsala has favoured the team setting a total in nine of fourteen IPL matches, and the cool, dew-free night conditions remove the usual chasing advantage seen at lower-altitude venues."

What happened

Mumbai Indians elected to field

Stamped 14 May, 20:05 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

Punjab Kings won the match ✗ match-winner prediction wrong

🏟️ What the toss means at Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium

Toss impact: HIGH bat-first ground — chases succeed only 36% of the time here

The toss went Mumbai Indians's way — they chose to field, so Mumbai Indians chase. In this branch our model makes Punjab Kings 62.0% — fair odds 1.61 (MI 2.63) against a pre-toss baseline of 56.0%.

How we made this Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see our toss prediction model.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for PBKS vs MI: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians prediction →

PBKS vs MI toss prediction FAQ

Who won the PBKS vs MI toss?

Mumbai Indians won the PBKS vs MI toss and chose to field first.

What did the toss winner choose in PBKS vs MI?

Mumbai Indians chose to field first. Our pre-toss call was bat first — the captain went the other way.

How does the toss affect the PBKS vs MI match odds?

Meaningfully. Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium favours batting first (chases succeed only 36% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 6 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →