Gambia vs Zambia Match 11 Prediction & Betting Tips

Zambia to win in Abuja.

Our AI model predicts Zambia to beat Gambia with an 84% win probability in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja. The market makes Zambia shorter still, at 1.11. A price of 6.59 on Gambia sits above our fair odds of 6.13, so the outsider carries the value.

Zambia come in after a seven-wicket win over Lesotho

Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs at Oval 1 in Abuja on 20 October 2026. Uganda made 195 for 6 in their 20 overs. Zambia were then bowled out for 108 in 17.3 overs.

Joyeb Chand top-scored for Zambia with 38 off 28 balls against Uganda on 20 October.

Nigeria beat Zambia by nine wickets at Oval 1 (21 October 2026). Zambia had won the toss and batted, and made 142 for 9 in their 20 overs. Nigeria reached 146 for 1 in 14.5 overs.

Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls for Zambia against Nigeria on 21 October.

Zambia beat Lesotho by seven wickets at Oval 2 on 23 October 2026. Lesotho were bowled out for 58 in 13.4 overs. Zambia reached 61 for 3 in 7.4 overs.

Jakir Patel finished 22 not out off 17 balls in the Zambia chase against Lesotho on 23 October.

Gambia need a long batting effort to trouble Zambia

Nigeria beat Gambia by 160 runs at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026. Nigeria made 262 for 1 in their 20 overs. Gambia were bowled out for 102 in 17.2 overs.

Andre Jarju top-scored for Gambia with 39 off 38 balls against Nigeria on 20 October.

Mozambique beat Gambia by 28 runs at Oval 1 (21 October 2026). Mozambique made 148 for 6 in their 20 overs. Gambia batted out their 20 overs and finished on 120 for 8.

David Demba made 45 not out off 29 balls for Gambia against Mozambique on 21 October.

Uganda beat Gambia by 10 wickets at Oval 2 in the 23 October game. Gambia had won the toss and batted, and were bowled out for 27 in 8.2 overs. Uganda knocked off the runs in 1.4 overs.

Key Matchups: Zambia's batting against Gambia's bowlers

Ismail Kara vs the Gambia attack: Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls against Nigeria on 21 October 2026. Nigeria made 262 for 1 against Gambia at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026, so a start like Kara's against Nigeria would put Zambia well ahead.

David Demba vs the Zambia attack: David Demba made 45 not out off 29 balls against Mozambique on 21 October 2026. Zambia bowled Lesotho out for 58 at Oval 2 on 23 October 2026, so Gambia need Demba to bat through the middle overs.

Andre Jarju vs the new ball: Andre Jarju made 39 off 38 balls against Nigeria on 20 October 2026. Gambia need a longer stay from him against Zambia.

Joyeb Chand vs Gambia's opening bowlers: Joyeb Chand made 38 off 28 balls against Uganda on 20 October 2026, in a Zambia total of 108.

Match Analysis: where Gambia vs Zambia is won and lost

Gambia's batting decides most of this. Gambia were bowled out for 102 against Nigeria (20 October) and for 27 against Uganda (23 October 2026), both at Oval 2.

Zambia's bowlers arrive in form. They bowled Lesotho out for 58 in 13.4 overs at Oval 2 on 23 October 2026.

Zambia's batting has been less steady. They were bowled out for 108 against Uganda (20 October 2026). Against Nigeria on 21 October 2026 they made 142 for 9, and Ismail Kara made 82 of those runs.

Our toss call is bat first, at 78%, so the side that wins the toss in Abuja is likely to bat.

Gambia vs Zambia Prediction: Zambia are 84% favourites

We back Zambia at 84%, after Ismail Kara's 82 against Nigeria (21 October) and a seven-wicket win over Lesotho (23 October 2026). Gambia's chance rests on David Demba and Andre Jarju batting deep, as Demba did against Mozambique on 21 October 2026.

Gambia were bowled out inside their 20 overs in two of their three defeats in Abuja, for 102 against Nigeria and 27 against Uganda. Zambia last took the field when Lesotho were bowled out for 58.

On price, the value sits with Gambia, while Zambia stay our pick. We expect the toss winner to bat first.