Tasmania vs Victoria Match 11 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Tasmania predicted to win with 58% probability
Tasmania
Victoria 42%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Tasmania predicted to win with 58% probability
- • Tasmania beat New South Wales by 57 runs on the DLS method in Sydney (13 October 2026)
- • South Australia beat Victoria by 70 runs at Junction Oval, Melbourne (12 October 2026)
- • Field first is our toss call, at 66%, for this game in Hobart
- • Tasmania at 1.74 carry a marginal edge against our fair odds of 1.73
Tasmania to beat Victoria in Hobart.
Our AI model predicts Tasmania to beat Victoria with a 58% win probability in the Australian One-Day Cup at Bellerive Oval, Hobart. The market also has Tasmania as favourites, and their price of 1.74 sits just above our fair odds of 1.73.
Tasmania arrive with two wins from their three games
Tasmania opened their season with a nine-wicket win over Western Australia at the WACA Ground in Perth on 20 September 2026. Western Australia were all out for 115 in 30.2 overs, with Riley Meredith taking 4 for 11 in eight overs. Tasmania then reached 117 for 1 in 16.2 overs, and Caleb Jewell finished on 41 not out off 43 balls.
South Australia beat Tasmania by seven runs at Karen Rolton Oval in Adelaide on 23 September 2026. South Australia made 383 for 7 in their 50 overs. In reply, Tasmania made 376 for 8, with Jordan Silk scoring 142 off 106 balls and Tim Ward 61 off 45.
Rain cut their latest game to 30 overs at Cricket Central in Sydney (13 October 2026). Tasmania were all out for 203 in 29.1 overs, with Will Prestwidge making 71 off 56 balls. New South Wales, set 216, were all out for 158 in 26 overs, and Tasmania won by 57 runs on the DLS method.
Can Victoria's batting recover against Tasmania?
Victoria began with a three-wicket win over Queensland at Allan Border Field in Brisbane on 19 September 2026. Queensland made 335 for 7 in their 50 overs. Victoria reached 339 for 7 in 49.5 overs, as Liam Blackford made 149 not out off 113 balls and Will Sutherland 100 off 106.
New South Wales beat Victoria by 47 runs on the DLS method at Junction Oval in Melbourne (25 September 2026). New South Wales were all out for 257 in 48.5 overs, with Harry Hoekstra taking five wickets. Victoria were then all out for 212 in 44.5 overs.
South Australia beat Victoria by 70 runs at Junction Oval in their latest game, on 12 October 2026. South Australia were bowled out for 311 in 49.3 overs. In reply, Victoria made 241 in 43.5 overs, with Oliver Peake making 73 off 74 balls and Liam Blackford 50 off 69.
Key Matchups: Jordan Silk against the Victoria new ball
Jordan Silk vs the Victoria attack: Jordan Silk made 142 off 106 balls against South Australia in Adelaide (23 September 2026), when Tasmania lost by seven runs. If he bats deep again, Tasmania have the platform for a big total at home.
Liam Blackford vs Riley Meredith: Liam Blackford made 149 not out off 113 balls against Queensland in Brisbane (19 September 2026), and 50 off 69 against South Australia at Junction Oval on 12 October 2026. Riley Meredith took 4 for 11 in eight overs against Western Australia in Perth (20 September 2026).
Will Prestwidge vs the Victoria middle overs: Will Prestwidge made 71 off 56 balls against New South Wales in Sydney on 13 October 2026, in a game cut to 30 overs. His quick scoring gives Tasmania a way to push on through the middle of the innings.
Oliver Peake vs the Tasmania attack: Oliver Peake made 73 off 74 balls against South Australia at Junction Oval on 12 October 2026. Victoria need him, or Will Sutherland, to support Liam Blackford through the middle overs.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Tasmania beat Victoria at Bellerive Oval, Hobart on 13 February 2025, in the 2024-25 One-Day Cup. Tasmania beat Victoria again at Allan Border Field, Brisbane on 19 September 2025, in the 2025-26 One-Day Cup, and took a bonus point. This game is the sides' first meeting of the 2026-27 season.
Against common opponents this season, Tasmania beat New South Wales in Sydney (13 October) while Victoria lost to them in Melbourne (25 September). South Australia beat both: Tasmania by seven runs in Adelaide (23 September) and Victoria by 70 runs in Melbourne (12 October 2026).
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Bellerive Oval, Hobart. Tasmania's home ground hosts this One-Day Cup game.
- Pitch: Tasmania beat Victoria in a One-Day Cup game at Bellerive Oval on 13 February 2025.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — toss winners chose to bowl in nine of the first ten games of this One-Day Cup season, and we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first here at 66%. See our TAS vs VIC toss call, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where Tasmania vs Victoria is won and lost
The Victoria top order decides most of this. In the 19 September 2026 game in Brisbane, Victoria reached 339 for 7 with 149 not out from Liam Blackford and 100 from Will Sutherland. In their next two games, Victoria made 212 and 241 and lost both.
Tasmania's attack has bowled sides out cheaply this season. Western Australia managed 115 in Perth (20 September), and New South Wales 158 in Sydney (13 October 2026). The exception came in Adelaide (23 September), when South Australia made 383 for 7, and Tasmania's batting came within seven runs of it.
With toss winners bowling in nine of the first ten games this season, the side that wins the toss here is likely to field.
Tasmania vs Victoria Prediction: Tasmania are 58% favourites
We back Tasmania at 57.9%, at home, after wins in Perth (20 September) and Sydney (13 October 2026) this season. Victoria's chance rests on Liam Blackford or Will Sutherland batting long, as they did against Queensland in Brisbane (19 September 2026).
On price, the marginal edge sits with Tasmania, and the odds box below sets out the numbers.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tasmania | 57.9% | 55% | 1.74 | 1.73 |
| Victoria | 42.1% | 45% | 2.10 | 2.38 |
Marginal value on Tasmania. At 1.74, Tasmania sit just above our fair odds of 1.73, an edge of under 1% on our numbers. Victoria at 2.10 sit below our fair 2.38, so the underdog's price is short. Odds captured on 23 October 2026.
Australian One-Day Cup
Tasmania vs Victoriaodds
24 Oct 2026 · 05:00 IST
Match winner: Tasmania 1.74 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Victoria 2.10 at Dafabet; checked 08:35–08:40 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1TAS | 2VIC | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Tasmania ▲1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▲2.10 | Payout95.2% |
 | 1 · Tasmania 1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▼2.05 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Tasmania 1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▼2.05 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Tasmania 1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▼2.05 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Tasmania 1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▼2.05 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Tasmania 1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▼2.05 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Tasmania 1.74 | 2 · Victoria ▼2.05 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · Tasmania1.74 | 2 · Victoria2.10 | Payout– |
1X2: Tasmania 1.75, Tie 50.00, Victoria 2.06 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 08:35–08:40 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1TAS | XTie | 2VIC | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Tasmania ▲1.75 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Victoria 2.06 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Tasmania ▲1.75 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Victoria 2.06 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Tasmania ▲1.75 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Victoria 2.06 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Tasmania ▲1.75 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Victoria 2.06 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Tasmania ▲1.75 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Victoria 2.06 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Tasmania ▲1.75 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Victoria 2.06 | Payout92.9% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Tasmania vs Victoria in the One-Day Cup?
Our AI model predicts Tasmania to beat Victoria, with a 57.9% win probability, at Bellerive Oval, Hobart. Tasmania beat New South Wales by 57 runs on the DLS method in Sydney on 13 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Tasmania vs Victoria?
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66% for Tasmania vs Victoria at Bellerive Oval. Toss winners chose to bowl in nine of the first ten games of this One-Day Cup season.
What are the odds for Tasmania vs Victoria?
At the time of writing, 23 October 2026, Tasmania are 1.74 and Victoria 2.10. Our fair odds are 1.73 and 2.38, so Tasmania at 1.74 carry a marginal edge on our numbers, while the Victoria price is short.
Who are the key players for Tasmania and Victoria?
For Tasmania, Jordan Silk made 142 off 106 balls against South Australia on 23 September 2026. For Victoria, Liam Blackford made 149 not out off 113 balls against Queensland on 19 September 2026.
How have Tasmania fared against Victoria in recent one-day games?
Tasmania beat Victoria at Bellerive Oval, Hobart on 13 February 2025 and at Allan Border Field, Brisbane on 19 September 2025, both in the One-Day Cup.
Where is Tasmania vs Victoria played?
Tasmania vs Victoria, the 11th match of the 2026-27 Australian One-Day Cup, is played at Bellerive Oval, Hobart, Tasmania's home ground. Tasmania beat Victoria in a One-Day Cup game there on 13 February 2025.
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