The Hundred 2026
MI London vs London Spirit Prediction & Betting Tips
MI MI London
LS London Spirit
The Kia Oval, Londonยท
๐ฏ 264/457 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข MI London predicted to win with 59% probability
- โข MI London have won two of three, including a seven-wicket win at this ground on 21 July 2026
- โข London Spirit have lost both matches, but by 7 runs and 4 wickets, so neither was a hammering
- โข Toss call: Field first, and the edge on MI London only survives in the branch where they chase
- โข The Kia Oval is forecast to hit 34.9 degrees Celsius with no rain, cooling to 27.8 by 21:00
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
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Bowl first โ 62% chase win rate at The Kia Oval
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Call heads or tails โHow this match shifts with batting order.
- If Liam Livingstone bats through the middle overs, London Spirit stop losing these games late
- If MI London are put in, our number falls to 52% and the price stops being attractive
- If the surface is as flat as the heat suggests, chasing gets easier and our 59% looks light
Our AI model predicts MI London to win with 59% probability, and this time the price agrees less than it should. MI London are 1.79 against a fair figure of 1.70. They have won two of three, including a seven-wicket win at this ground on 21 July 2026.
MI London have the record and the home ground
MI London opened their 2026 campaign here on 21 July 2026 by bowling Sunrisers Leeds out for 143 and knocking the runs off with seven wickets and sixteen balls to spare. That is the most complete performance either of these sides has produced this month, and it happened on this square.
They then lost to Welsh Fire by 15 runs in Cardiff on 25 July 2026, finishing on 152 for 6 against 167 for 5, with James Vince top-scoring on 66 from 38. Two days later they beat Southern Brave by three wickets at the Utilita Bowl. Two wins from three, and the one defeat came away from home.
London Spirit are winless, but they are not being outplayed
London Spirit have lost both of their matches. Manchester Super Giants beat them by 7 runs at Lord's on 23 July 2026, and Trent Rockets beat them by 4 wickets at Trent Bridge on 26 July 2026. Read only the record and they look like a side in trouble.
Read the margins and something else appears. Seven runs and four wickets are results decided in the last few balls, not sides being brushed aside. A team losing narrowly twice is usually one selection or one partnership away from the other side of the ledger, which is exactly why our model has them at 41% rather than something lower.
Key matchups that will decide MI London vs London Spirit
Trent Boult with the new ball vs Jonny Bairstow: Boult swinging the first ten balls at a batter who scores quickly from the start is the game's opening question. Whoever wins it sets the tone for the powerplay.
Liam Livingstone vs the MI London middle overs: Livingstone captains this London Spirit side and is the batter most able to turn two narrow defeats into a win. Sam Curran and Will Jacks have to break that phase up.
Nicholas Pooran vs the chase: if MI London are batting second, Pooran is the reason a target of any size stays reachable. Jamie Overton and Dewald Brevis need to remove him before the last twenty-five balls.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
Published head-to-head records for this fixture disagree with one another, and MI London carry a rebranded franchise history that some databases count and others do not, so we do not print a number. What is checkable is what both sides have done this month, and that is set out above: MI London two wins from three, London Spirit two narrow defeats from two.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
The Kia Oval, London is MI London's home ground and the scene of their seven-wicket win over Sunrisers Leeds on 21 July 2026. It is a large, true surface where a hundred-ball innings tends to be decided by whether the middle overs are controlled.
- Pitch: the one completed match here this season saw 143 all out defended badly rather than a total defended well, so the early evidence points to batting rather than a bowlers' surface.
- Weather: a high of 34.9 degrees Celsius and a low of 20.4, with no precipitation forecast, a rain probability of zero and maximum wind of 18.4 kilometres per hour. It is 33.9 degrees at the start, 30.7 by 20:00 and 27.8 by 21:00, so the evening cools materially across the match.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ the Hundred sample at this ground is too small to give a reliable venue rate, so the call rests on the format-wide tendency of chasing sides doing well, reinforced by a surface that should ease as the heat drops. We log every toss call publicly. Our MI vs LS toss prediction shows why this venue leans one way.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The middle twenty-five balls decide it. Both of London Spirit's defeats were lost in that phase, and MI London's win here was built on squeezing Sunrisers Leeds out for 143 rather than on any batting fireworks. Whichever side controls overs through the middle of the innings will be the one still in front at the end.
Heat is the second factor and it works one way. At 33.9 degrees at the start and 27.8 by nine o'clock, the side batting second gets the cooler, easier half of the evening. That is the mechanical reason our number for MI London rises to 66% when they chase and falls to 52% when they set.
The third factor is that London Spirit have not yet found a total. Two matches, two narrow losses, and no innings that put the opposition under real pressure. If that changes here, the margins in this preview close quickly.
MI London vs London Spirit prediction: MI London, with the toss deciding the price
We are going with MI London at 59%. They have the better record this month, they are at home, and they have already produced the most convincing performance either side has managed, on this ground.
The honest caveat is that the attractive price and the prediction are not the same thing. At 1.79 against our fair 1.70 there is a real edge, but the scenario map shows it living almost entirely in the branch where MI London chase.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI London | 59% | 53.9% | 1.79 | 1.70 |
| London Spirit | 41% | 46.2% | 2.07 | 2.43 |
MI London at 1.79 carry a 5.3% edge, and here is why we disagree with the market. We have them at 59% where the available price implies 53.9%, a gap of five points on the same favourite. Three things drive it. They are the only one of these two sides to have won a match here this season, and they did it by seven wickets with sixteen balls unused. London Spirit's two defeats came by 7 runs and 4 wickets, which our model reads as a side that is close rather than one that is off the pace, so the gap between them is smaller than the record suggests and MI London's share of it is larger. And an evening cooling from 33.9 to 27.8 degrees favours whoever bats second, which is the branch our number likes most. Odds captured on 28 July 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win MI London vs London Spirit in The Hundred?
Our AI model predicts MI London to beat London Spirit with 59% probability at The Kia Oval on 29 July 2026. MI London have won two of their three matches, including a seven-wicket win at this ground on 21 July 2026, while London Spirit have lost both of theirs.
What is the toss prediction for MI London vs London Spirit?
Our toss call for MI London vs London Spirit on 29 July 2026 is to field first. The Hundred sample at The Kia Oval is too small for a reliable venue rate, so the call rests on the format-wide pattern of chasing sides doing well, reinforced by an evening that cools from 33.9 to 27.8 degrees Celsius.
What are the odds for MI London vs London Spirit?
MI London are available at 1.79 and London Spirit at 2.07 on 29 July 2026. Our fair prices are 1.70 and 2.43, so MI London carry a 5.3% edge at the available price. If London Spirit bat first, our fair price for MI London shortens to 1.52 and that edge widens to 17.8%.
How does the toss affect MI London vs London Spirit?
Batting order swings our number by seven points either way. If London Spirit bat first, MI London rise to 66%. If MI London bat first, they fall to 52% and London Spirit climb to 48%, which is close to an even match.
What is the pitch like at The Kia Oval in The Hundred?
The one completed men's Hundred match at The Kia Oval this season saw Sunrisers Leeds bowled out for 143 on 21 July 2026 and MI London chase it with seven wickets and sixteen balls to spare, so the early evidence points towards batting rather than a bowlers' surface.
Will weather affect MI London vs London Spirit on 29 July 2026?
Rain is not expected at The Kia Oval on 29 July 2026. The forecast is a high of 34.9 degrees Celsius, a low of 20.4, no precipitation and maximum wind of 18.4 kilometres per hour. Heat is the condition to watch, because the evening cools by six degrees across the match.
