Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women Match 1 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Sydney Thunder Women predicted to win with 51.6% probability
Sydney Thunder Women
Melbourne Renegades Women 48%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Sydney Thunder Women predicted to win with 51.6% probability
- • Melbourne Renegades Women won both WBBL|11 meetings, by 4 wickets at Junction Oval (11 November 2025) and by 8 wickets at Drummoyne Oval (23 November 2025)
- • Hayley Matthews is back for the Renegades after missing WBBL|11, and Heather Knight returns for the Thunder
- • We expect the toss winner to bowl first (63%)
- • Both sides are 1.90, so the match-winner market is fairly priced against our fair odds of 1.94 and 2.07
Sydney Thunder Women edge a level WBBL opener.
Our AI model gives Sydney Thunder Women a 51.6% chance of beating Melbourne Renegades Women in Match 1 of the Women's Big Bash League 2026-27, at Junction Oval, Melbourne, on 29 October 2026 at 10:10 am IST (04:40 UTC). That makes our fair odds 1.94 for the Thunder and 2.07 for the Renegades. The bookmakers price the game level at 1.90 each, so this opener is finely balanced.
Hayley Matthews returns to a Renegades side that beat the Thunder twice
Melbourne Renegades Women get Hayley Matthews back for WBBL|12. The West Indies all-rounder missed WBBL|11 after withdrawing for shoulder surgery, according to Cricket Australia's squad round-up. Deandra Dottin, the Renegades' other West Indies player, has also re-signed.
Georgia Wareham hurt the Thunder in both meetings last season. She made 58 off 32 balls and took 2 for 25 in 4 overs against Sydney Thunder Women in Melbourne on 11 November 2025. In the return game at Drummoyne Oval on 23 November 2025, Georgia Wareham took 3 for 12 in 4 overs as the Thunder were bowled out for 64.
In the T20 Spring Challenge in Sydney, the Renegades beat Melbourne Stars Women by 1 run on 14 October 2026, making 180 for 4 and holding the Stars to 179 for 6.
Can Phoebe Litchfield's Thunder turn their new signings into wins?
Phoebe Litchfield leads Sydney Thunder Women for a second season. Heather Knight returns for her fifth season with the club, after retiring from international cricket earlier in 2026. Knight made 30 off 20 balls against Melbourne Renegades Women in the 11 November 2025 meeting.
The Thunder have added pace and power. England fast bowler Lauren Bell is confirmed for the whole season, and South African all-rounder Nadine de Klerk joins from Brisbane Heat.
Their Spring Challenge ended in the semi-finals. Sydney Thunder Women beat Melbourne Stars Women by 7 wickets on 12 October 2026. In the semi-final on 20 October 2026 they won the toss, batted and made 152 for 9, but Sydney Sixers Women chased it down with three balls to spare and won by 4 wickets.
Key Matchups: Georgia Wareham against the Thunder, Heather Knight against the Renegades
Georgia Wareham vs the Thunder's batting: Georgia Wareham's 3 for 12 at Drummoyne Oval (23 November 2025) helped bowl the Thunder out for 64. Her 2 for 25 (11 November 2025) came in the game she also top-scored in.
Heather Knight vs the Renegades' attack: Heather Knight made 30 off 20 balls against Melbourne Renegades Women in that 11 November 2025 game. She returns to a Thunder batting line-up that also includes Phoebe Litchfield and Georgia Voll.
Georgia Voll vs the Renegades' batting: Georgia Voll took 2 for 24 in 4 overs against Melbourne Renegades Women (11 November 2025).
Nicole Faltum and Sophie Molineux vs the Thunder's bowlers: Nicole Faltum made 37 not out off 26 balls to finish the 11 November 2025 chase. Sophie Molineux made 29 not out off 22 balls in the Renegades' 8-wicket win at Drummoyne Oval on 23 November 2025. She also took 1 for 8 in 3 overs against Sydney Thunder Women that day.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Melbourne Renegades Women won both of their WBBL|11 meetings with Sydney Thunder Women. At Junction Oval on 11 November 2025, the Renegades won the toss and bowled. Sydney Thunder Women made 148 for 7 in 20 overs. Melbourne Renegades Women replied with 151 for 6 in 18.1 overs and won by 4 wickets.
The return game, the 21st Match of WBBL|11, was at Drummoyne Oval, Sydney (23 November 2025). The Renegades won the toss and bowled again. Sydney Thunder Women were all out for 64 in 17 overs. Melbourne Renegades Women made 68 for 2 in 11.1 overs and won by 8 wickets.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Junction Oval, Melbourne opens WBBL|12 with this game. Melbourne Stars Women play Hobart Hurricanes Women at the same ground at 08:10 UTC.
- Pitch: In the 11 November 2025 meeting at Junction Oval, Melbourne Renegades Women chased down Sydney Thunder Women's 148 for 7, finishing on 151 for 6 in 18.1 overs.
- Start: 10:10 am IST (04:40 UTC), an afternoon start in Melbourne.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we expect the toss winner to bowl at this afternoon start, at 63%. Melbourne Renegades Women won the toss and bowled in both WBBL|11 meetings with Sydney Thunder Women, at Junction Oval and at Drummoyne Oval. We have published our pre-toss call for MR-W vs ST-W on the toss prediction page.
Match Analysis: Where Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women will be won and lost
The Renegades' bowling won both meetings last season. Georgia Wareham took 2 for 25 in Melbourne and 3 for 12 at Drummoyne Oval, where the Thunder were bowled out for 64. The Thunder's answer this season is a deeper attack, with Lauren Bell and Nadine de Klerk joining.
Both sides have a star back. Hayley Matthews was not part of the Renegades' WBBL|11 side, and Heather Knight is back with the Thunder. The Thunder also have Phoebe Litchfield and Georgia Voll in their batting.
Our AI model makes Sydney Thunder Women narrow favourites at 51.6%, close to the level price.
Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women prediction: Thunder by a whisker at a fair price
Our AI model picks Sydney Thunder Women to win at 51.6%, with Melbourne Renegades Women at 48.4%. The Thunder would need a price above 1.94 to offer value, and the Renegades a price above 2.07.
At 1.90 for both sides, neither price reaches those marks. The live angle is the toss, where we expect the toss winner to bowl first, at 63%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Renegades Women | 48.4% | 50% | 1.90 | 2.07 |
| Sydney Thunder Women | 51.6% | 50% | 1.90 | 1.94 |
The match-winner market is fairly priced. The Thunder's 1.90 sits below our fair odds of 1.94, and the Renegades' 1.90 sits below their fair 2.07. The market has the game level at 50% each, against our 51.6% for the Thunder, a gap of 1.6 points.
Women's Big Bash League
Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Womenodds
29 Oct 2026 · 10:10 IST
Match winner: Melbourne Renegades Women 1.90 at Dafabet; Sydney Thunder Women 1.90 at Dafabet; checked 07:55–07:57 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1MR-W | 2ST-W | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.90 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.90 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women1.90 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women1.90 | Payout– |
1X2: Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89, Tie 25.00, Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 07:55 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1MR-W | XTie | 2ST-W | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Melbourne Renegades Women 1.89 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Sydney Thunder Women 1.89 | Payout91.2% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women in the Women's Big Bash League?
Our AI model picks Sydney Thunder Women to beat Melbourne Renegades Women at 51.6% in Match 1 of the Women's Big Bash League 2026-27 at Junction Oval on 29 October 2026. The bookmakers price the game level at 1.90 each.
What is the toss prediction for Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women?
We expect the toss winner to bowl first at 63% for Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women on 29 October 2026. Melbourne Renegades Women won the toss and chose to bowl in both WBBL|11 meetings between the sides.
What are the odds for Melbourne Renegades Women vs Sydney Thunder Women?
Melbourne Renegades Women and Sydney Thunder Women are both 1.90 for their 29 October 2026 game. Our fair odds are 1.94 for the Thunder and 2.07 for the Renegades, so the match-winner market is fairly priced.
What happened when Melbourne Renegades Women and Sydney Thunder Women met in WBBL|11?
Melbourne Renegades Women won both WBBL|11 meetings with Sydney Thunder Women. They won by 4 wickets at Junction Oval on 11 November 2025, then bowled the Thunder out for 64 at Drummoyne Oval on 23 November 2025 and won by 8 wickets.
Is Hayley Matthews playing for Melbourne Renegades Women in WBBL|12?
Hayley Matthews returns to Melbourne Renegades Women for WBBL|12, after missing WBBL|11 when she withdrew for shoulder surgery. Deandra Dottin has also re-signed with the Renegades.
Who captains Sydney Thunder Women in WBBL|12?
Phoebe Litchfield captains Sydney Thunder Women in WBBL|12, her second year in the role. Heather Knight returns for her fifth season with the Thunder.
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