Sri Lanka vs England Match 6 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
England predicted to win with 65% probability
England
Sri Lanka 35%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 70%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • England predicted to win with 65% probability
- • Sri Lanka made 430 for 8 to beat England by 2 wickets at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026
- • Pakistan and Sri Lanka are already set to meet in the final on 31 October 2026
- • Field first is our toss call, at 70%, for this game in Lahore
- • The match-winner market is fairly priced, so the toss is the angle
England are our pick at 65%.
Our AI model predicts England to beat Sri Lanka in Lahore on Thursday 29 October 2026, with a 65.1% win probability. England have lost all three of their games in this tri-series, including a 2-wicket defeat to Sri Lanka on 22 October, yet the market rates them a little higher than we do. Pakistan and Sri Lanka meet in the final on 31 October.
Sri Lanka arrive with two wins from three and a final place
Sri Lanka beat England by 2 wickets at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026, with 1 ball left. England made 429 for 4 in that game. Sri Lanka replied with 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs.
Pavan Rathnayake made 130 off 106 balls in that reply against England (22 October). Avishka Fernando made 97 off 83 balls against England on 22 October 2026. Dasun Shanaka struck 97 off 50 balls in the same 22 October chase.
Sri Lanka then bowled Pakistan out for 110 in 25.3 overs at the Gaddafi Stadium on 27 October 2026. Dilshan Madushanka took 5 for 34 in 8.3 overs against Pakistan that day. Kamindu Mendis then made 62 not out off 60 balls as Sri Lanka won by 8 wickets on 27 October.
Their one defeat came in the opening game at Rawalpindi, where Pakistan beat them by 37 runs on 18 October 2026. Pavan Rathnayake made 79 off 74 balls against Pakistan in that game.
England have lost all three tri-series games despite Harry Brook's 202
Harry Brook made 202 off 116 balls against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026, and England still lost. Joe Root made 69 off 66 balls in that innings (22 October). Will Jacks added 66 not out off 30 balls against Sri Lanka on 22 October 2026.
Pakistan beat England by 87 runs at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026, bowling them out for 215 in 38.4 overs. Pakistan won again, by 1 wicket with 17 balls left, at the Gaddafi Stadium on 25 October 2026.
England were all out for 241 in 46.4 overs on 25 October, and Ben Duckett made 105 off 111 balls in that innings against Pakistan. Jamie Overton took 3 for 43 in 10 overs in Pakistan's reply on 25 October 2026.
England's form against Sri Lanka before this tour was better. They won a three-match ODI series 2-1 in England in September 2026.
Key Matchups: Dilshan Madushanka against Harry Brook
Dilshan Madushanka vs Harry Brook: Dilshan Madushanka took 5 for 34 against Pakistan at the Gaddafi Stadium on 27 October 2026. Harry Brook made 202 off 116 balls against Sri Lanka on 22 October 2026, so this is the contest that can swing the game.
Jamie Overton vs Pavan Rathnayake: Jamie Overton took 3 for 43 against Pakistan in Lahore on 25 October 2026. Pavan Rathnayake made 130 off 106 balls against England on 22 October 2026.
Dunith Wellalage vs Joe Root: Dunith Wellalage took 2 for 56 in 10 overs against England on 22 October 2026. Joe Root made 69 off 66 balls in England's 429 for 4 that day.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Sri Lanka beat England by 2 wickets at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 22 October 2026, reaching 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs. England made 429 for 4 in that game, and Sri Lanka passed it with 1 ball left.
In September 2026 England won a three-match ODI series 2-1 in England. England beat Sri Lanka by 89 runs at Chester-le-Street on 22 September and by 223 runs at the Kennington Oval on 27 September. Sri Lanka won by 16 runs at Headingley on 24 September 2026.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore staged the 4th and 5th games of this tri-series. England batted first on 25 October 2026, were all out for 241 and lost to Pakistan by 1 wicket. On 27 October 2026 Pakistan batted first at the same ground, were all out for 110 and lost to Sri Lanka by 8 wickets.
- Pitch: Both sides batting first in Lahore during this tri-series were bowled out, for 241 and for 110.
- Start: 13:30 IST (08:00 UTC), a day game.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 70%. Sri Lanka chose to bowl after winning the toss on 18, 22 and 27 October, England on 20 October and Pakistan on 25 October 2026. See our toss analysis for SL vs ENG, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where Sri Lanka vs England is won and lost
Runs came easily in Rawalpindi and much less easily in Lahore. England made 429 for 4 at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026. In Lahore, the sides batting first were all out for 241 (25 October) and 110 (27 October).
That makes the new ball the key phase, and Sri Lanka bowled Pakistan out for 110 in Lahore on 27 October 2026. For England, Jamie Overton took 3 for 43 against Pakistan in Lahore on 25 October 2026.
England's batting is the stronger half of their game, with Harry Brook and Ben Duckett both making hundreds in this tri-series. If England bat with that freedom again, they remain favourites in our numbers.
Sri Lanka vs England Prediction: England are 65% favourites
Our AI model gives England a 65.1% chance of beating Sri Lanka in Lahore. England beat Sri Lanka twice in their September 2026 series in England, and their batting has produced 429 for 4 in this tri-series.
The match-winner market is fairly priced, with England at 1.45 below our fair 1.54 and Sri Lanka at 2.72 below our fair 2.87. The toss is the angle, and we expect the toss winner to bowl first, at 70%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sri Lanka | 34.9% | 33.7% | 2.72 | 2.87 |
| England | 65.1% | 66.3% | 1.45 | 1.54 |
Fairly priced on both sides. England at 1.45 sit below our fair odds of 1.54, and Sri Lanka at 2.72 sit below our fair 2.87, so the market has this match about right. Our model is 1.2 points below the market on England, so the market broadly agrees with us. The toss is the angle for this game. Odds captured on 27 October 2026.
Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026
Sri Lanka vs Englandodds
29 Oct 2026 · 13:30 IST
Match winner: Sri Lanka 2.72, England 1.45 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 03:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1SL | 2ENG | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.72 | 2 · England ▲1.45 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.72 | 2 · England ▲1.45 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.72 | 2 · England ▲1.45 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.72 | 2 · England ▲1.45 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.72 | 2 · England ▲1.45 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.72 | 2 · England ▲1.45 | Payout95.0% |
1X2: Sri Lanka 2.73, Tie 50.00, England 1.46 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 03:45 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1SL | XTie | 2ENG | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.73 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▲1.46 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.73 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▲1.46 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.73 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▲1.46 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.73 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▲1.46 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.73 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▲1.46 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Sri Lanka ▼2.73 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · England ▲1.46 | Payout93.4% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sri Lanka vs England in the Pakistan ODI tri-series?
Our AI model predicts England to beat Sri Lanka at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on 29 October 2026, with a 65.1% win probability. Sri Lanka beat England by 2 wickets at Rawalpindi on 22 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Sri Lanka vs England?
Our toss call for Sri Lanka vs England in Lahore on 29 October 2026 is field first, at 70%. Every toss winner in the Pakistan ODI tri-series so far has chosen to bowl.
What are the odds for Sri Lanka vs England?
England are 1.45 and Sri Lanka are 2.72 for their tri-series game on 29 October 2026. Our fair odds are 1.54 for England and 2.87 for Sri Lanka, so both prices sit below fair.
Who is in the Pakistan ODI tri-series final?
Pakistan and Sri Lanka meet in the final of the Pakistan ODI tri-series at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on 31 October 2026.
What happened when Sri Lanka and England met on 22 October 2026?
Sri Lanka beat England by 2 wickets at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 22 October 2026. England made 429 for 4, with 202 from Harry Brook. Sri Lanka then made 430 for 8 in 49.5 overs.
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