New Zealand vs India 4th T20I Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
India predicted to win with 65.8% probability
India
New Zealand 34%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • India predicted to win with 65.8% probability
- • India beat New Zealand at Hagley Oval on 22 and 24 October 2026, then in Wellington three days later
- • Abhishek Sharma made 113 off 38 balls against New Zealand in the 27 October game
- • We expect the toss winner to field first in Auckland (74%)
- • India at 1.54 are the value side, just above our fair odds of 1.52
India to beat New Zealand at Eden Park.
Our AI model gives India a 65.8% chance of beating New Zealand in the 4th T20I at Eden Park, Auckland, on 30 October 2026, at 12:30 pm IST (07:00 UTC). India won at Hagley Oval on 22 and 24 October, then won by 6 wickets in Wellington on 27 October 2026. At 1.54, India sit just above our fair odds of 1.52, so the favourite is also the value side.
New Zealand have made big totals and still lost
New Zealand have batted first in this series and scored heavily. They made 225 for 4 at Hagley Oval on 22 October 2026, and India still won by 4 wickets with two balls to spare.
Glenn Phillips led that innings with 82 not out off 40 balls against India (22 October 2026). Finn Allen added 45 off 24 balls against India in the same game. On 24 October 2026, Glenn Phillips made 70 off 43 balls against India, and Bevon Jacobs made 58 off 46 balls in the same game.
In Wellington the runs came from Daryl Mitchell. He made 89 not out off 52 balls against India on 27 October 2026, and New Zealand reached 198 for 3. India made 199 for 4 in 13.2 overs and won by 6 wickets.
The bowling has had its moments. Mitchell Santner took 4 for 21 in four overs against India on 24 October 2026, and Michael Bracewell took 2 for 37 against India in the 22 October game. Kyle Jamieson, who took 2 for 45 against India in Wellington, is available for Canterbury in the Ford Trophy on 31 October.
Why India's batting keeps finding a way home
The Wellington chase was the quickest of the three. Abhishek Sharma made 113 off 38 balls against New Zealand on 27 October 2026 and was player of the match. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi made 45 off 19 balls alongside him in that game.
The two games in Christchurch were closer, and India's runs came from all through the order. Sanju Samson made 67 off 33 balls against New Zealand on 22 October 2026, and Shreyas Iyer added 42 off 28 balls in that chase.
The finishing came from further down. Naman Dhir made 42 not out off 15 balls against New Zealand at Hagley Oval (22 October 2026). In the 24 October game, Tilak Varma made 51 not out off 26 balls and India got home with one ball to spare.
Key Matchups: Phillips against Arshdeep, Santner against the middle order
Glenn Phillips vs Arshdeep Singh: Glenn Phillips is the batter India most need to remove early. On 24 October 2026 he was caught by Naman Dhir off the bowling of Arshdeep Singh for 70, and Arshdeep Singh finished that game with 2 for 33.
Mitchell Santner vs India's middle order: Mitchell Santner's 4 for 21 against India came in the 24 October game, and his left-arm spin is the best answer New Zealand have found in the middle overs. India's middle order has to see him through without losing a cluster of wickets.
Abhishek Sharma vs New Zealand's new ball: Abhishek Sharma's 113 off 38 balls against New Zealand on 27 October 2026 turned New Zealand's 198 for 3 into a stroll. New Zealand need him out early, or the chase is over before the middle overs start.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
India beat New Zealand by 7 wickets in the 2nd T20I of India's 2018/19 tour of New Zealand, at Eden Park on 8 February 2019. New Zealand made 158 for 8 in that game, and India reached 162 for 3 in 18.5 overs.
The next two T20Is between the sides at the ground went the same way. On 24 January 2020 India made 204 for 4 in 19 overs in reply to New Zealand's 203 for 5 and won by 6 wickets. On 26 January 2020 India won by 7 wickets, reaching 135 for 3 in 17.3 overs after New Zealand made 132 for 5.
In this series India won by 4 wickets at Hagley Oval on 22 and 24 October 2026, and by 6 wickets at Hnry Stadium on 27 October 2026.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Eden Park, Auckland has produced big totals in recent T20Is. New Zealand made 207 for 5 against West Indies there on 6 November 2025 and won by 3 runs.
- Start: 12:30 pm IST (07:00 UTC), a night match under floodlights.
- Recent scores: Pakistan made 207 for 1 in 16 overs in reply to New Zealand's 204 on 21 March 2025. South Africa made 136 for 9 there on 20 March 2026, and New Zealand knocked off the runs in 16.2 overs.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we put the chance that the toss winner chooses to field at 74%. India won the toss and chose to field on 22, 24 and 27 October 2026. See the toss prediction for NZ vs IND, locked in before the toss happens.
Match Analysis: New Zealand need wickets before India's finishers arrive
A big total alone has not been enough for New Zealand. Their 225 for 4 on 22 October 2026 was their highest of the three games, and India still got there with two balls left.
Their route is wickets in the middle overs. Mitchell Santner showed what that looks like in the 24 October game, and India still had Tilak Varma and Naman Dhir to finish the job. New Zealand need to reach India's lower order with more runs left to get.
New Zealand vs India prediction: India the pick at Eden Park
Our AI model makes India 65.8% favourites for the 4th T20I in Auckland, with fair odds of 1.52. India's 1.54 sits just above that, so the pick and the value point the same way. New Zealand at 2.46 are below their fair odds of 2.92.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 34.2% | 38.5% | 2.46 | 2.92 |
| India | 65.8% | 61.5% | 1.54 | 1.52 |
Value sits with India, by a small margin. India's 1.54 is above our fair odds of 1.52, an edge of about 1%, and a price of 1.55 is available on India. New Zealand's 2.46 is below our fair 2.92, so the favourite is both our pick and the value side. Odds captured on 27 October 2026.
Our model is 4.3 points above the market on India. Here's why. India won both games against New Zealand at Hagley Oval batting second, with Naman Dhir 42 not out on 22 October 2026 and Tilak Varma 51 not out on 24 October 2026. At the Auckland ground, India ran down New Zealand's 203 for 5 on 24 January 2020 and their 132 for 5 on 26 January 2020.
India tour of New Zealand 2026
New Zealand vs Indiaodds
30 Oct 2026 · 12:30 IST
Match winner: New Zealand 2.47 at 1xBet; India 1.55 at 1xBet; checked 20:05–20:10 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1NZ | 2IND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.46 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.46 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.46 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.46 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.46 | 2 · India 1.54 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.47 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout95.5% |
| Highest | 1 · New Zealand2.47 | 2 · India1.55 | Payout– |
1X2: New Zealand 2.48, Tie 25.00, India 1.55 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 20:05–20:10 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1NZ | XTie | 2IND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · New Zealand 2.48 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout92.2% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.48 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout92.2% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.48 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout92.2% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.48 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout92.2% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.48 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout92.2% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.48 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.55 | Payout92.2% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match387.5 | 1.91PlanBet | 1.75WinWin |
| New Zealand189.5 | 1.92PlanBet | 1.74WinWin |
| India197.5 | 1.921xBet | 1.74Melbet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win New Zealand vs India in the 4th T20I?
Our AI model predicts India to beat New Zealand, with a 65.8% win probability, in the 4th T20I at Eden Park, Auckland (30 October 2026). India beat New Zealand on 22, 24 and 27 October 2026 in the first three games of the series.
What is the toss prediction for New Zealand vs India?
We expect the toss winner to field first in New Zealand vs India in Auckland, at 74%. India won the toss and chose to field in the 22, 24 and 27 October games, and the 4th T20I starts at 12:30 pm IST (07:00 UTC) on 30 October 2026.
What are the odds for New Zealand vs India?
At the time of writing, 27 October 2026, New Zealand were priced at 2.46 and India at 1.54, against our fair odds of 2.92 and 1.52. A price of 1.55 is available on India, also above our fair price.
What happened in the 3rd T20I between New Zealand and India?
India won the 3rd T20I by 6 wickets at Hnry Stadium, Wellington (27 October 2026). New Zealand made 198 for 3, with Daryl Mitchell 89 not out off 52 balls, and India reached 199 for 4 in 13.2 overs, with Abhishek Sharma making 113 off 38 balls.
How have New Zealand and India done in T20Is at Eden Park?
India beat New Zealand by 6 wickets at Eden Park on 24 January 2020, in reply to New Zealand's 203 for 5, and by 7 wickets there on 26 January 2020. India also won the 2nd T20I of their 2018/19 tour at the ground, by 7 wickets on 8 February 2019.
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