Asian Games 2026
Pakistan vs Hong Kong Prediction & Betting Tips
PAK Pakistan
HK Hong Kong
Korogi Sports Park, Nisshin·
🎯 331/561 predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • Pakistan predicted to win with 82.8% probability
- • Pakistan have sent a new-look squad under Sahibzada Farhan, while Hong Kong bring a settled side led by Yasim Murtaza
- • Hong Kong lost to Malaysia by 8 wickets (24 September), then beat Oman by 41 runs a day later
- • Toss call: bowl first, from the pattern in T20 internationals; Hong Kong chose to bat after winning the toss in both group games here
- • Rain is forecast for Nisshin on match day, and a shortened game is Hong Kong's best route to an upset
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Call heads or tails →Pakistan are our pick at 82.8%.
Our AI model gives Pakistan an 82.8% chance of beating Hong Kong in the first quarter-final of the Asian Games 2026 men's cricket at Korogi Sports Park, Nisshin (28 September). Pakistan beat Hong Kong in the quarter-finals of the last Asian Games as well, and they have won both T20 internationals between the sides.
Can Hong Kong's settled side trouble a new-look Pakistan?
Hong Kong reached the quarter-finals as runners-up in Group B, behind Malaysia. Their opening game (24 September) went badly: they chose to bat, made 81 for 9 in their 20 overs, and Malaysia knocked off the runs in 12 overs to win by 8 wickets with 48 balls to spare.
They recovered a day later. Batting first again, Hong Kong made 121 for 8 and held Oman to 80 for 6, a 41-run win that sent them through. On a ground where runs have been scarce, that total was enough with plenty to spare.
Yasim Murtaza captains a settled Hong Kong squad. Babar Hayat, Nizakat Khan and Anshuman Rath lead the batting, and the attack leans on spin from Murtaza's left-arm and Ehsan Khan's off-breaks.
Why Pakistan start their Asian Games as clear favourites
Pakistan received a bye straight into the quarter-finals, so this is their first match of these Games. Sahibzada Farhan captains the side, with Abdul Samad as vice-captain.
This is a new-look Pakistan side. Olympics.com described the Games squad that way, several of Pakistan's best-known T20 players are not in it, and when it was named on 10 June the ICC noted four players yet to win a T20 international cap.
There is still international experience at the top. Farhan and Saim Ayub both played for Pakistan at the T20 World Cup in February, Usman Khan is the squad's wicketkeeper, and Abrar Ahmed brings leg-spin. That core is why the market still makes Pakistan clear favourites against an associate side.
Key Matchups: Pakistan's spin against Hong Kong's middle order
Abrar Ahmed vs Hong Kong's middle order: Hong Kong were 81 for 9 against Malaysia. Abrar's leg-spin through the middle overs is where Pakistan can turn a slow start into a collapse, on a ground where Hong Kong's 121 for 8 was a winning score.
Sahibzada Farhan and Saim Ayub vs Yasim Murtaza: Pakistan's batting leans on them. Murtaza bowls left-arm spin, and if he can hold Pakistan back in the powerplay, Hong Kong stay in the game.
Nizakat Khan and Babar Hayat vs Pakistan's new ball: After 81 for 9 against Malaysia, Hong Kong need a steadier start from their top order. Nizakat also bowls leg-spin, so his day matters with both bat and ball.
Ehsan Khan vs Pakistan's middle order: Ehsan's off-spin gives Hong Kong a second slow bowler. Against a Pakistan middle order with less international cricket behind it than usual, tight overs in the middle could build pressure.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Pakistan and Hong Kong have met twice in men's T20 internationals, and Pakistan won both. At the Asia Cup in Sharjah on 2 September 2022, Pakistan made 193 for 2 and bowled Hong Kong out for 38, winning by 155 runs.
The second meeting was the quarter-final at the last Asian Games, in Hangzhou on 3 October 2023. Pakistan were bowled out for 160 but dismissed Hong Kong for 92 in 18.5 overs, winning by 68 runs. The 28 September match makes it two Asian Games quarter-finals in a row between them.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Korogi Sports Park, Nisshin is the cricket venue for these Asian Games, and every match of the men's and women's events is played there.
- Pitch: Runs have been hard to come by. Hong Kong's 121 for 8 beat Oman by 41 runs, and Malaysia needed only 84 for 2 to beat Hong Kong a day earlier.
- Weather: Rain is forecast for match day, and rain wiped out both matches at the ground on 26 September, so a shortened game is possible.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — the toss winner in T20 internationals bowls first more often than not, though Hong Kong chose to bat after winning the toss in both of their group games here. Our pre-toss call for this match is on the dedicated page, with the venue chase math laid out.
Match Analysis: Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost
The first six overs decide a lot. Hong Kong were held to 81 for 9 by Malaysia, and Pakistan's attack is stronger than Malaysia's. If Hong Kong lose early wickets again, the game moves quickly towards Pakistan.
Hong Kong's route to an upset is a total Pakistan have to work for. Their 121 for 8 was enough against Oman on this surface, and their spinners need the middle overs to go their way against a Pakistan batting order with less experience than usual.
Rain is the other variable. A shortened match gives the underdog more chances, and with rain forecast for Nisshin, how many overs are possible may matter as much as either team's plan.
Pakistan vs Hong Kong Prediction: Pakistan to reach the semi-finals
Our prediction is Pakistan at 82.8%, or about 83% rounded. They beat Hong Kong comfortably in both previous meetings, and even a new-look squad has the international experience of Farhan, Saim Ayub and Abrar Ahmed at its core.
The semi-finals are on 1 October, and India meet Afghanistan in the second quarter-final later the same day at the same ground. Here, the toss call is bowl first, and the scenario map above shows our number holds whichever side bats first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 82.8% | 82.8% | 1.16 | 1.21 |
| Hong Kong | 17.2% | 17.2% | 5.60 | 5.81 |
The market has this about right. Our 82.8% for Pakistan matches the market's price, so the available odds of 1.16 on Pakistan and 5.60 on Hong Kong both sit a little under our fair odds of 1.21 and 5.81. With the favourite fairly priced, the live angle is the toss and the batting order, covered in the scenario map above. Odds captured on 27 September 2026.
Where We See Value: not in the price of the favourite, which matches our 82.8% for Pakistan, but in reading the toss and the conditions. A rain-shortened game would narrow the gap, and our toss call is to bowl first.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pakistan vs Hong Kong in the Asian Games 2026 quarter-final?
Our AI model predicts Pakistan to beat Hong Kong with 82.8% probability in the first men's quarter-final at Korogi Sports Park, Nisshin, on 28 September 2026. Pakistan won both previous T20 internationals between the sides, including the 2023 Asian Games quarter-final.
What is the toss prediction for Pakistan vs Hong Kong?
Our toss call for Pakistan's quarter-final against Hong Kong on 28 September 2026 is to bowl first, based on how often toss winners field first in T20 internationals. Hong Kong won the toss and batted in both of their group games at Korogi Sports Park (24 and 25 September).
What are the odds for Pakistan vs Hong Kong?
The available odds for the quarter-final between Pakistan and Hong Kong are 1.16 on Pakistan and 5.60 on Hong Kong, against our fair odds of 1.21 and 5.81. With Pakistan at 82.8%, the match-winner market is efficiently priced, and the toss is the more interesting angle.
Who captains Pakistan and Hong Kong at the 2026 Asian Games?
Sahibzada Farhan captains Pakistan's men at the 2026 Asian Games, with Abdul Samad as vice-captain, and Yasim Murtaza captains Hong Kong. Pakistan's squad for the quarter-final (28 September) includes Saim Ayub, Usman Khan and Abrar Ahmed.
How did Hong Kong reach the Asian Games quarter-finals?
Hong Kong finished second in Group B behind Malaysia. They lost to Malaysia by 8 wickets on 24 September 2026 after making 81 for 9, then beat Oman by 41 runs a day later with 121 for 8.
What is the head-to-head record between Pakistan and Hong Kong in T20 internationals?
Pakistan have won both men's T20 internationals against Hong Kong: by 155 runs at the 2022 Asia Cup in Sharjah, and by 68 runs in the 2023 Asian Games quarter-final in Hangzhou.
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