PAK Pakistan
USA United States
ICC T20 World Cup 2026
Pakistan vs United States Match Prediction
Last updated: 9 February 2026
Prediction Summary — Pakistan vs United States
Twenty months ago at Grand Prairie Stadium in Dallas, Saurabh Netravalkar defended 18 runs in a Super Over to hand USA one of cricket's most improbable upsets — a victory over Pakistan that still echoes through the sport. Now these sides meet again under very different circumstances. Pakistan arrive in Colombo riding a devastating four-match winning streak, including a ruthless 3-0 demolition of Australia, while USA are nursing a defeat to India and a potential injury to fast bowler Ali Khan. The ghosts of Dallas will loom large, but this is a transformed Pakistan side under new captain Salman Ali Agha, and they'll be desperate to ensure there's no sequel.
Pakistan Preview — Form, Strengths & Key Players
Pakistan's recent form is the kind that makes the rest of the tournament nervous. Three consecutive wins over Australia — by 22 runs, 90 runs, and a record-breaking 111 runs — in Lahore showed a team operating at full throttle. They carried that momentum into the World Cup, scraping past Netherlands by 3 wickets in a chase that was cruising before a characteristic middle-order wobble.
The batting order is headlined by Babar Azam, who returns to T20I cricket with 4,520 runs at an average of 39.30 and a strike rate of 128.15 across 140 matches. Saim Ayub has emerged as a genuine dual-threat — his batting strike rate of 133.58 is complemented by useful left-arm spin that proved effective against the Dutch. The bowling attack remains Pakistan's trump card: Shaheen Shah Afridi (61 T20I wickets at an economy of 8.19) provides the new-ball threat, while leg-spinner Abrar Ahmed (44 wickets, economy 6.73) offers control through the middle overs. Faheem Ashraf's match-winning cameo against Netherlands — both with bat and ball — demonstrated the squad depth captain Salman Ali Agha can call upon.
T20 Record: 64 matches, 33 wins (52% win rate) · Recent Form: W-W-W-W
United States Preview — Form, Strengths & Key Players
USA's tournament began with a defeat to India at the Wankhede Stadium, but there were encouraging signs — particularly with the ball. Shadley Van Schalkwyk led a disciplined bowling effort that had India under early pressure, and Harmeet Singh (24 T20I wickets, economy 6.97) confirmed his status as one of the most reliable spinners outside the Test-playing nations. The major concern is the fitness of Ali Khan, who limped off with a groin injury during the India match and faces a race to be fit.
The batting is powered by an explosive top order. Andries Gous, who was USA's leading run-scorer at the 2024 World Cup with 219 runs, brings a strike rate of 139.78 from 24 T20I innings. Captain Monank Patel (920 runs in 44 T20Is, SR 137.10) provides experience and calm at the top, while Saiteja Mukkamalla — currently ranked 24th in the ICC T20I batting rankings, nine places above Babar Azam — offers genuine class with a strike rate of 146.22. The question is whether this batting lineup can convert starts against a bowling attack of Pakistan's calibre, having failed to do so against India.
T20 Record: 34 matches, 19 wins (56% win rate) · Recent Form: L (vs IND)
Key Players to Watch
Shaheen Shah Afridi vs Andries Gous: The powerplay contest that could define this match. Shaheen's ability to generate steep bounce and movement with the new ball will test Gous's aggressive intent — if Pakistan strike early, USA's batting depth may be exposed.
Babar Azam vs Saurabh Netravalkar: The intriguing rematch of that Dallas Super Over. Netravalkar (22 wickets in 21 T20Is, economy 7.54) will want to prove that 2024 was no fluke, while Babar will be determined to reassert his dominance. Netravalkar had a forgettable outing against India and needs a response.
Abrar Ahmed vs Monank Patel: A critical middle-overs battle. Abrar's leg-spin has been Pakistan's most economical option (6.73 RPO), and Patel's ability to rotate strike and build innings against quality spin will determine whether USA can post or chase a competitive total.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
These teams have met just once in T20I cricket — the now-legendary 2024 World Cup encounter in Dallas that ended with USA winning via Super Over after the match was tied. Saurabh Netravalkar bowled the Super Over of his life, successfully defending 18 runs against a shellshocked Pakistan lineup. That result sent shockwaves through the cricket world and contributed to Pakistan's early elimination from the tournament.
While the psychological edge of that upset may give USA belief, the context has changed significantly: Pakistan have rebuilt under new leadership and are playing with a confidence forged by their domination of Australia.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Sinhalese Sports Club, Colombo — Capacity: 10,000. A traditionally batting-friendly surface with increasing assistance for spinners as the match progresses.
- Pitch: True bounce, favours stroke-making early. Spin becomes a factor in the second innings as the surface dries.
- T20 Record: 2 matches played, both won by the chasing team (100% chase success rate).
- Weather: Evening dew in Colombo further favours bowling second.
- Toss: Captain winning the toss should elect to field. Both T20s at this ground have been won by the chasing side.
Pakistan have subcontinental experience that USA simply cannot match. The conditions in Colombo — with spin becoming increasingly important — play directly into Pakistan's hands given their dual spin options in Abrar Ahmed and Mohammad Nawaz.
Match Analysis
This match comes down to two fundamental questions: can USA's batting handle Pakistan's pace-spin combination, and can USA's bowlers contain a Pakistan lineup that recently smashed Australia around Lahore?
In the powerplay, Pakistan hold a significant advantage. Shaheen and the pace battery will test USA's aggressive openers with bounce and movement that they rarely face in their regular schedule against associate nations. USA's recent competitive cricket has been dominated by fixtures against Bermuda, Bahamas, and Oman — Pakistan represent a massive step up in quality.
The middle overs are where Pakistan could tighten the noose. Abrar Ahmed and Mohammad Nawaz offer the kind of spin pressure that choked sides throughout Pakistan's home season. USA's middle order — Aaron Jones (492 runs in 26 T20Is) and Milind Kumar — will need to show composure against bowling they haven't regularly encountered.
If Ali Khan is ruled out, USA lose their most experienced pace option, further tilting the balance. Even at full strength, the bowling attack would struggle to consistently threaten Pakistan's top order on a Colombo surface that has historically favoured batsmen in the first innings.
The one wildcard: USA's 2024 upset proves they can perform under immense pressure against Pakistan specifically. The mental barrier of beating Pakistan has already been broken, and that belief shouldn't be underestimated.
Our Verdict
Pakistan should win this comfortably. The gulf in quality — particularly in bowling, batting depth, and subcontinental experience — is substantial. Pakistan's 3-0 demolition of Australia showed a team at the peak of their powers, and they'll view this match as a chance to put the 2024 Dallas embarrassment firmly behind them.
We predict Pakistan with an 85.8% win probability. The main risk is Pakistan's well-documented tendency for the unexpected — their middle-order collapse against the Netherlands is a reminder that no Pakistan lead is ever truly safe. If USA can restrict Pakistan below 150 and their top three fire, an upset isn't impossible. But the rankings, the form, and the conditions all point the same direction.
Value call: The market has Pakistan at an implied probability of 88.2%, closely aligned with our model's 85.8%. There is no significant edge on either side. Back Pakistan if odds drift above 1.17, or consider USA only at odds above 7.50 as a speculative play.
📊 Odds Analysis
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 85.8% | 88.2% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| United States | 14.2% | 17.5% | 7.00 | 7.04 |
No significant value edge detected. Our model aligns closely with the market — the slight 2.4% divergence suggests the market may be marginally underrating USA's recent win streak, albeit mostly against associate nations. 34 bookmakers surveyed, Pinnacle at PAK 1.15 / USA 5.60.
For a deep dive into how we rate every team in this tournament, see our T20 World Cup 2026 winner prediction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pakistan vs USA in the T20 World Cup 2026?
We predict Pakistan to win with an 85.8% probability. Pakistan's devastating recent form — including a 3-0 sweep of Australia — their superior bowling attack led by Shaheen Shah Afridi, and their subcontinental experience give them a commanding advantage over USA in Colombo.
Can USA upset Pakistan again like in 2024?
While USA proved in Dallas that they can beat Pakistan, the circumstances are very different. Pakistan are in far better form, the match is on a subcontinental pitch that suits Pakistan's spinners, and USA may be without injured pacer Ali Khan. An upset is possible but unlikely at 14.2% probability.
What happened when Pakistan and USA last played?
The two teams met at the 2024 T20 World Cup in Dallas, Texas on June 6, 2024. After the match was tied, USA won a dramatic Super Over bowled by Saurabh Netravalkar, who successfully defended 18 runs. It remains one of the biggest upsets in T20 World Cup history.
Is Ali Khan fit for the Pakistan match?
Ali Khan sustained a groin injury during USA's opening match against India and limped off the field. His fitness remains uncertain ahead of the Pakistan clash. If he misses out, USA lose a key experienced pace bowler, further reducing their already slim chances.
What are the best odds for Pakistan vs USA?
The best available odds for Pakistan are 1.18, with the market average at 1.14 across 34 bookmakers. For USA, the best odds are 7.00. We see no value edge — back Pakistan only if odds rise above 1.17.
