Queensland vs Tasmania Match 14 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Pick: Tasmania to win, at 52.7%.
Tasmania
Queensland 47%
Toss Prediction
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 66%.
Toss preview ›QLD vs TAS Playing 11
Each team is confirmed when its XI is announced at the toss.
Queensland
Expected captainMitchell Swepson
- Jack Clayton
- Hugh Weibgen
- Hugo Burdon
- Lachlan Hearne
- Max Bryant
- Jimmy Peirson (wk)
- Hayden Kerr
- Ollie Patterson
- Mitchell Swepson (c)
- Tom Straker
- Tom Whitney
Based on the last XI in this series and today's squad.
Updated 15 Nov, 08:50 IST
Tasmania
Expected captainJordan Silk
- Caleb Jewell
- Mitchell Owen
- Will Prestwidge
- Jake Doran (wk)
- Jordan Silk (c)
- Tim David
- Nikhil Chaudhary
- Aidan O’Connor
- Thomas Stewart Rogers
- Raf MacMillan
- Jack Montgomery
Based on the last XI in this series and today's squad.
Updated 15 Nov, 08:50 IST
Key Takeaways
- • Pick: Tasmania to win, at 52.7%.
- • Toss call: Field first, at 66%. We log every toss call publicly — the Queensland vs Tasmania pick is on the toss page.
- • Key fact: Tasmania won two of their four One-Day Cup games from 20 September to 24 October 2026.
- • Value: Tasmania's fair odds are 1.90, and Melbet had them at 1.89 at 07:06 IST (15 November).
We back Tasmania, at 52.7%.
Tasmania won two of their four One-Day Cup games from 20 September to 24 October 2026.
Queensland beat Tasmania by 10 wickets in the Sheffield Shield at the Gabba, in the four-day game that began on 11 November 2026.
The 50-over game in Brisbane starts at 5:30 am IST (00:00 UTC), and rain is forecast to build through the afternoon.
Which team is stronger, Queensland or Tasmania?
Tasmania, narrowly, on 2026-27 one-day form.
Tasmania opened with a 9-wicket win in Perth, bowling Western Australia out for 115 (20 September 2026). Riley Meredith took 4 for 11 in 8 overs for Tasmania that day.
Jordan Silk made 142 off 106 balls for Tasmania against South Australia at Karen Rolton Oval in Adelaide (23 September 2026). Tasmania made 376 for 8 and lost by 7 runs.
Tasmania then beat New South Wales by 57 runs (DLS method) in a 30-over game in Sydney (13 October 2026). Will Prestwidge made 71 off 56 balls for Tasmania in that win.
Victoria beat Tasmania by 138 runs (DLS method) at Bellerive Oval in Hobart (24 October 2026), with Caleb Jewell 47 not out for Tasmania.
Queensland have one win from four.
They made 335 for 7 and still lost to Victoria by 3 wickets at Allan Border Field in Brisbane (19 September 2026).
Hugh Weibgen made 125 off 89 balls for Queensland against New South Wales in Brisbane (22 September 2026), but Queensland's 358 all out was chased down with 6 balls left.
Hugh Weibgen made 103 off 85 balls for Queensland when they beat Western Australia by 15 runs at the WACA Ground in Perth (13 October 2026).
South Australia then made 397 for 7 and beat Queensland by 126 runs in Adelaide (17 October 2026), despite 121 off 104 balls from Lachlan Hearne for Queensland.
Queensland's 13-player squad, named on 14 November 2026, has Marnus Labuschagne as captain.
Key matchups: Marnus Labuschagne against Riley Meredith, Jordan Silk against Mitchell Swepson
Marnus Labuschagne against Riley Meredith. Marnus Labuschagne made 105 off 91 balls for Queensland against Tasmania at Allan Border Field (9 October 2025) and 126 off 137 against South Australia in Brisbane (21 February 2026).
Riley Meredith took 4 for 11 for Tasmania against Western Australia at the WACA Ground (20 September 2026).
If Meredith removes Labuschagne early, Queensland lose their captain.
Jordan Silk against Mitchell Swepson. Jordan Silk made 85 not out off 61 balls for Tasmania against Queensland at Allan Border Field (9 October 2025), and 142 against South Australia in Adelaide (23 September 2026).
Mitchell Swepson took 7 for 28 for Queensland against South Australia at the Gabba (21 February 2026) and 4 for 40 against Tasmania in Hobart (3 December 2024).
How Silk handles Swepson could decide the size of Tasmania's total or chase.
Queensland vs Tasmania head to head
Queensland, One-Day Cup since 2024
1
Tasmania, One-Day Cup since 2024
1
Level at one win each in the One-Day Cup since September 2024, with one no result. Newest first.
Outside the One-Day Cup, Queensland beat Tasmania by 10 wickets in the Sheffield Shield at the Gabba, in a four-day game that began on 11 November 2026.
Queensland vs Tasmania pitch report: The Gabba, Brisbane
A bowling ground in the One-Day Cup. Western Australia bowled Queensland out for 131 at the Gabba (23 February 2025), and Queensland bowled South Australia out for 135 there (21 February 2026).
Every One-Day Cup game at the Gabba since September 2024, newest first
Queensland 260 all out · South Australia 135 all out in 26.1 overs, Queensland won by 125 runs.
Queensland 131 all out · Western Australia 132 for 4 in 26 overs, won by 6 wickets.
About 28°C at the start, with the chance of rain rising from 4% to 51% by 8:30 am IST and 94% by 11:30 am IST. Forecast read 15 November, 07:04 IST.
Both toss winners in those games, Western Australia (23 February 2025) and South Australia (21 February 2026), chose to bowl.
Queensland vs Tasmania prediction: we back Tasmania at 53%
We back Tasmania, 52.7%, with the market at 50.7%.
One-day form is the first reason.
Tasmania beat Western Australia by 9 wickets (20 September 2026) and New South Wales by 57 runs (13 October 2026). Queensland's only win in four One-Day Cup games from 19 September to 17 October 2026 came by 15 runs at the WACA Ground (13 October 2026).
The Sheffield Shield pulls the other way.
Queensland bowled Tasmania out for 133 and 233 in the Sheffield Shield in Brisbane and won by 10 wickets, in the four-day game that began on 11 November 2026.
Tasmania also won the sides' One-Day Cup meeting at Allan Border Field, making 317 for 5 to beat Queensland's 311 all out (9 October 2025).
Melbet had Tasmania at 1.89 at 07:06 IST (15 November), just under our fair 1.90. Dafabet's 1.94 on Queensland sits under our 2.11.
What decides Queensland vs Tasmania
- The rain. Rain is forecast to build through the afternoon in Brisbane, which would put a shortened chase in play.
- The toss. We expect the toss winner to bowl, at 66%. Tasmania won the toss and bowled at Allan Border Field (9 October 2025).
- Marnus Labuschagne. He made 126 off 137 balls for Queensland against South Australia in Brisbane (21 February 2026).
- Jordan Silk. He made 142 off 106 balls for Tasmania against South Australia (23 September 2026).
Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queensland | 47.3% | 49.3% | 1.94 | 2.11 |
| Tasmania | 52.7% | 50.7% | 1.89 | 1.90 |
Tasmania's price, 1.89, sits just under our fair odds of 1.90. Dafabet had Queensland at 1.94 and Melbet had Tasmania at 1.89 at 07:06 IST (15 November).
At 1.94, Queensland sit under our 2.11. The toss is the other angle, with our call to bowl first at 66%. Odds captured on 15 November 2026.
Why we disagree with the market. Our model is 2.0 points above the market on Tasmania.
One-day form is the reason. Tasmania won two of their four One-Day Cup games from 20 September to 24 October 2026, and Queensland lost three of four from 19 September to 17 October 2026.
Australian One-Day Cup
Queensland vs Tasmania odds
16 Nov 2026 · 05:30 IST
Match winner: Queensland 1.94 at Dafabet; Tasmania 1.89 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet, SpinBetter; checked 09:20–09:21 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1QLD | 2TAS | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Queensland 1.94 | 2 · Tasmania ▲1.86 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Queensland 1.88 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · Queensland1.94 | 2 · Tasmania1.89 | Payout– |
1X2: Queensland 1.88, Tie 50.00, Tasmania 1.89 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet, SpinBetter; checked 09:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1QLD | XTie | 2TAS | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
| 1 · Queensland 1.88 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Tasmania 1.89 | Payout92.9% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match533.5 | 1.91WinWin | 1.75PlanBet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Queensland vs Tasmania in the One-Day Cup?
Tasmania. Our AI model gives them a 52.7% chance against Queensland in Brisbane. Tasmania won two of their four One-Day Cup games from 20 September to 24 October 2026, including a 57-run win (DLS method) over New South Wales in Sydney (13 October 2026).
What is the toss prediction for Queensland vs Tasmania?
Field first, at 66%. Western Australia (23 February 2025) and South Australia (21 February 2026) won the toss at the Gabba and chose to bowl, and Tasmania won the toss and bowled against Queensland at Allan Border Field (9 October 2025). Rain is forecast to build through the afternoon.
What are the odds for Queensland vs Tasmania?
At 07:06 IST on 15 November, Dafabet had Queensland at 1.94 and Melbet had Tasmania at 1.89. Our fair odds are 1.90 for Tasmania and 2.11 for Queensland, so both prices sit under our numbers for this One-Day Cup game in Brisbane.
Is the Gabba a batting or bowling pitch?
A bowling ground in the One-Day Cup. Western Australia bowled Queensland out for 131 at the Gabba (23 February 2025), and Queensland bowled South Australia out for 135 in Brisbane (21 February 2026), when Mitchell Swepson took 7 for 28 for Queensland.
When did Queensland and Tasmania last play in the One-Day Cup?
At Allan Border Field in Brisbane (9 October 2025), when Tasmania made 317 for 5 and beat Queensland by 5 wickets. Outside the One-Day Cup, Queensland beat Tasmania by 10 wickets in the Sheffield Shield in Brisbane, in a four-day game that began on 11 November 2026.
What time does Queensland vs Tasmania start?
At 5:30 am IST (00:00 UTC) on 16 November 2026. It is a 50-over One-Day Cup game of the 2026-27 season between Queensland and Tasmania at the Gabba in Brisbane. Our toss call for it is field first, at 66%, with rain forecast to build through the afternoon.
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