ICC T20 World Cup 2026
West Indies vs Nepal Prediction & Betting Tips
WI West Indies
NEP Nepal
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai·
🎯 19/23 T20 WC predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • West Indies predicted to win with 86.9% probability — but that's lower than the market's ~90%
- • Nepal stunned West Indies 2-1 in a T20I series just five months ago in Sharjah — they've beaten this exact opponent before
- • Wankhede's short boundaries and 197 average first-innings T20I score favour West Indies' explosive power hitters
- • Nepal must win to keep their Super 8s hopes alive — 0-2 with the worst NRR in Group C (-1.854)
- • Marginal value exists on Nepal at odds above 7.63 — the market has overpriced West Indies
🎰 15% Rakeback Boost at Gamdom
Our AI model predicts West Indies to beat Nepal with 86.9% probability in this Group C clash at Wankhede Stadium — but notably, that's 3.4% lower than what the betting market implies. Nepal beat this exact West Indies squad 2-1 in September, and while that T20I series in Sharjah feels like a lifetime ago given the tournament form of both sides, it's a reminder that upsets are never impossible in T20 cricket.
Can West Indies' Power Hitters Maintain Their Devastating Form?
West Indies have been the most destructive batting unit in Group C. Shimron Hetmyer set the tone with a blistering 64 off 37 balls against Scotland — smashing six sixes in a devastating display. Sherfane Rutherford then delivered the performance of the tournament so far: an unbeaten 76 off 45 balls with seven sixes against England, powering WI to 196/6.
The bowling has been equally clinical. Romario Shepherd's 5/20 against Scotland — including the first hat-trick of the 2026 T20 World Cup — announced West Indies as serious contenders. Gudakesh Motie's left-arm spin added 3/33 against England. Captain Shai Hope has a well-balanced 15-member squad at his disposal, mixing raw pace from Jayden Seales and Shamar Joseph with the spin of Motie and Akeal Hosein.
With 4 points and a net run rate of +1.625, West Indies are virtually guaranteed a Super 8s place. This match is about maintaining momentum — and potentially boosting NRR against a struggling opponent. The two-time T20 World Cup champions (2012, 2016) look hungry for a deep tournament run, as we explored in our New Zealand vs South Africa prediction.
Nepal's Fight for Survival — Can Lamichhane Conjure One More Shock?
Nepal's campaign has been painful. A four-run loss to England in their opener showed they can compete, but the 24-player training camp group that produced this squad hasn't delivered results. The Italy loss was the real blow — bundled out for 123, then watching the Mosca brothers chase it down without losing a wicket. Nepal's -1.854 NRR — the worst in the Group C standings — means they need wins, not just close losses.
The core of Rohit Paudel's squad remains dangerous in isolation. Sandeep Lamichhane brings 129 T20I wickets and a 6.03 economy rate in his career — but this tournament has been tough: 1/25 against England and 0/31 against Italy. Kushal Bhurtel provides explosive top-order batting, while Dipendra Singh Airee's all-round skills offer flexibility. Karan KC (106 T20I wickets) gives Nepal a genuine second bowling threat.
The glimmer of hope? Nepal beat West Indies 2-1 in a T20I series in September 2025 in Sharjah — winning the first two matches by 19 and 90 runs respectively. That series featured several of the same players. If Nepal's batters can post 160+, their spinners could make things interesting on a Wankhede surface that's been in use throughout the tournament.
Key Matchups: Caribbean Firepower vs Himalayan Spin
Shimron Hetmyer vs Sandeep Lamichhane: Hetmyer's ability to clear boundaries against spin makes this the must-watch duel. Lamichhane's leg-spin has troubled better batters than Hetmyer, but on a flat Wankhede surface with short boundaries, the advantage tilts heavily towards the left-hander. Lamichhane needs to find his best form — his tournament figures of 1/56 in two matches are well below his career standards.
Romario Shepherd vs Nepal's middle order: Shepherd's pace and bounce could be devastating against Nepal's middle-order batters who struggled against Italy's medium pace. His 5/20 against Scotland showed what happens when a bowling lineup can accelerate through the tail — and Nepal's batting depth beyond their top five is a genuine concern.
Gudakesh Motie vs Kushal Bhurtel: Motie's left-arm spin (4 tournament wickets at an economy of 6.56) against Bhurtel's aggressive approach could be the key middle-overs battle. If Bhurtel falls early to Motie, Nepal's already fragile batting loses its most explosive component.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
West Indies and Nepal have met just three times in T20I cricket — all in a bilateral series in Sharjah in September 2025. Nepal won the first two matches convincingly (by 19 runs and 90 runs), before West Indies salvaged pride with a 10-wicket victory in the dead rubber. It's a tiny sample but a meaningful one: Nepal have actually beaten this West Indies team more often than they've lost to them. Whether that Sharjah success can translate to Wankhede is the big question.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai — Capacity: 33,000. One of world cricket's most iconic grounds, hosting multiple T20 World Cup matches including the England vs Nepal and England vs West Indies fixtures earlier in the tournament.
- Pitch: Batting-friendly surface. Average first-innings T20I score of ~197, with India posting 247/9 against England here in 2025. Short straight boundaries favour power hitters — a clear West Indies advantage.
- Weather: Clear skies expected in Mumbai with temperatures around 30°C and moderate humidity. No rain threat. Dew unlikely in the morning slot (11:00 AM start).
- Toss: Teams chasing have won 56% of T20 matches at Wankhede. Our model shows 11.4% toss impact — moderate. Expect the toss winner to choose to field in this morning match.
Three Factors That Will Decide West Indies vs Nepal
Nepal's powerplay survival. West Indies' pace trio of Shepherd, Seales, and Joseph generated consistent pace and bounce against Scotland and England. If Nepal lose early wickets in the powerplay — as they did against Italy (8/1 in the second over) — the game could be over inside 15 overs. Nepal need their top three to see off the new ball and build a platform, something they failed to do in either of their first two matches.
West Indies' acceleration through the middle overs. This is where WI's depth becomes terrifying. Brandon King, Rovman Powell, Hetmyer, and Rutherford all have the ability to score at 10+ runs per over against spin. Nepal's best chance of restricting WI is through Lamichhane and Airee in overs 7-15, but the Caribbean batters have shown they can hit through the line against quality spin all tournament.
Nepal's belief vs WI's complacency. The one wildcard. Nepal have nothing to lose — they're already staring at elimination. West Indies, with qualification all but sealed, might not bring the same intensity. Nepal's September series victory proves they can compete against this team. If Paudel wins the toss and bowls, Nepal might fancy their chances of restricting WI on a surface that's seen plenty of cricket this tournament.
West Indies vs Nepal Prediction: Comfortable Win for the Caribbean
Our AI model gives West Indies an 86.9% win probability — and the case for a convincing victory is strong. The depth of West Indies' batting lineup, the variety of their bowling attack, and their tournament momentum all point towards a third consecutive win. Nepal's campaign has been admirable in moments, but they've been outclassed in results. See our T20 World Cup winner prediction for the full tournament outlook.
The 3.4% gap between our model (86.9%) and the market (~90%) reflects our acknowledgment of Nepal's recent H2H advantage. Value exists on Nepal above odds of 7.63 for those willing to back the underdog — but realistically, West Indies should win this comfortably.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 86.9% | ~90.3% | ~1.11 | 1.15 |
| Nepal | 13.1% | ~9.7% | ~10.30 | 7.63 |
Marginal value on Nepal. Our model prices Nepal 3.4% higher than the market consensus. If you can find Nepal at odds above 7.63, there's a positive expected value window — though West Indies remain overwhelming favourites. The market has West Indies too short; our model respects Nepal's recent head-to-head dominance more than bookmakers do.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win West Indies vs Nepal in the T20 World Cup 2026?
Our AI model predicts West Indies to win with 86.9% probability. West Indies have won both Group C matches so far, beating Scotland by 35 runs and England by 30 runs, and their explosive batting lineup makes them heavy favourites.
What is the toss prediction for West Indies vs Nepal?
The toss winner should choose to field first. At Wankhede Stadium, chasing teams have won 56% of T20I matches, and our model shows an 11.4% toss impact factor. The morning start time (11:00 AM IST) reduces dew concerns, but chasing remains the preferred option.
What are the best odds for West Indies vs Nepal?
West Indies are priced around 1.11 with most bookmakers, implying ~90% probability. Our model's fair odds are 1.15 for West Indies and 7.63 for Nepal. Value exists on Nepal at odds above 7.63, though West Indies are the clear prediction.
Have West Indies and Nepal played T20I matches before?
Yes — they've met three times, all in a bilateral series in Sharjah in September 2025. Nepal won the series 2-1, including a stunning 90-run victory in the second match. It's a small sample but demonstrates Nepal can compete against West Indies.
What is the pitch like at Wankhede Stadium for T20 cricket?
Wankhede is one of the most batting-friendly T20 venues in the world, with an average first-innings score of approximately 197 in T20 internationals. India posted 247/9 against England here in 2025 — the highest T20I total at the ground. Short straight boundaries favour power hitters.
Can Nepal qualify for the Super 8s from Group C?
Nepal's chances are extremely slim. With 0 points and -1.854 NRR after two matches, they need to win all three remaining games and rely on other results going their way. Even a win against West Indies would only keep them mathematically alive.
What time does West Indies vs Nepal start?
The match starts at 11:00 AM IST (5:30 AM GMT / 12:30 AM EST on February 14) at Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai. It's the first of three Group C matches on February 15.
