New Zealand vs Pakistan Toss Prediction (NZ vs PAK)

Saturday, 21 February 2026 · 19:00 IST · R.Premadasa Stadium · T20 WC 2026

Last updated: 7 May 2026

Toss prediction page launched 7 May 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our New Zealand vs Pakistan match preview on 18 February 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✗ Decision missed

Our predicted decision

field first

From the article: "Field first at the toss — dew expected in the second innings, and chasing teams hold a clear historical advantage at this venue"

What happened

Pakistan elected to bat

Stamped 7 May, 20:01 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

New Zealand won the match

🏟️ What the toss means at R.Premadasa Stadium

Toss impact: Moderate bat-first ground — chases succeed only 48% of the time here

The toss went Pakistan's way — they chose to bat, so New Zealand chase. In this branch our model makes New Zealand 53.5% — fair odds 1.87 (PAK 2.15) against a pre-toss baseline of 54.5%.

How we made this New Zealand vs Pakistan toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see how the toss call is built.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for NZ vs PAK: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full New Zealand vs Pakistan prediction →

NZ vs PAK toss prediction FAQ

Who won the NZ vs PAK toss?

Pakistan won the NZ vs PAK toss and chose to bat first.

What did the toss winner choose in NZ vs PAK?

Pakistan chose to bat first. Our pre-toss call was field first — the captain went the other way.

How does the toss affect the NZ vs PAK match odds?

Meaningfully. R.Premadasa Stadium favours batting first (chases succeed only 48% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 1 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →