The Hundred 2026
Birmingham Phoenix vs MI London Prediction & Betting Tips
BP Birmingham Phoenix
MI MI London
Edgbaston, Birminghamยท
๐ฏ 289/495 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข MI London predicted to win with 68.5% probability at Edgbaston
- โข The dated record runs the other way, and every one of those meetings was played when the London side was still called Oval Invincibles
- โข The Phoenix beat this franchise at Edgbaston in 2021, in 2023 and again in 2025
- โข Field first. Edgbaston leans toward the chasing team in this format
- โข MI London at 1.53 against a fair price of 1.46 gives a 4.8% edge, the only positive number on the card
Small edge โ the price sits just above our fair line. Worth noting, size accordingly.
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
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Bowl first โ 63% chase win rate at Edgbaston, Birmingham
How batting order moves our number.
- If Trent Boult and Sam Curran are both rested once qualification is settled elsewhere, MI London drop by roughly 5%
- If the Phoenix post an above-par total at Edgbaston, the chase advantage shrinks sharply
- A slower, drier surface than forecast would favour Rehan Ahmed and lift the Phoenix by around 3%
MI London are the pick at Edgbaston.
Our AI model gives MI London a 68.5% chance of winning Match 32 of The Hundred 2026, and the bookmakers broadly agree at 67.14% once the margin is stripped out. What makes the fixture interesting is that the history of this rivalry says the opposite.
Birmingham Phoenix are playing for pride and little else
The Phoenix arrive with their season already decided. They cannot reach the top three, so this is a match for the home crowd and nothing more.
Their recent scorecards share a pattern. On 1 August 2026 at Edgbaston they made 137 for 9 and Welsh Fire replied with 138 for 3 to win. On 5 August 2026 at Trent Bridge they managed 111 for 6 and Trent Rockets answered with 116 for 3. On 7 August 2026, back at Edgbaston, Sunrisers Leeds posted 169 for 7 and the Phoenix folded to 124 for 8. On 9 August 2026 at Lord's, London Spirit beat them again. Three of those four are batting failures at or below par. Will Smeed and Joe Clarke give the top order real power and Mitchell Owen can turn a chase in ten balls, but the middle has not held. Ben Dwarshuis and Saqib Mahmood remain a serious new-ball pair, and Rehan Ahmed is the bowler most likely to trouble the visitors.
Can the London side finish the job they still need?
MI London come into their final group match still competing for a top-three place, with their fate resting partly on results elsewhere. That matters for selection: they have every reason to win and none to rest anyone.
Their August has been the more convincing. On 2 August 2026 at The Oval they made 183 for 6 and bowled Manchester Super Giants out for 138, the most complete performance either side has produced. On 6 August 2026 at Lord's they made 164 for 6 to beat London Spirit's 160 for 5. On 8 August 2026 they were beaten by Trent Rockets, 147 for 7 proving 20 short as the Rockets reached 148 for 4. The squad reads better on paper: Nicholas Pooran and Will Jacks are among the competition's most destructive batters, Ollie Pope and Jason Roy add depth, and Sikandar Raza gives a genuine all-round option. Trent Boult with a new ball under lights is the most valuable asset on either side, and Sam Curran covers both disciplines.
Key matchups: where 100 balls get decided
Trent Boult vs Will Smeed: Smeed scores quickly through the off side and Boult swings the new ball back into the right-hander. The first ten balls of the Phoenix innings will tell you a great deal about the next ninety.
Rehan Ahmed vs Nicholas Pooran: The Phoenix want their leg-spinner bowling at Pooran rather than at left-handers who can work him with the turn. Engineering that match-up is the tactical question of the night.
Ben Dwarshuis and Saqib Mahmood vs the visiting top order: Jason Roy and Will Jacks attack from ball one. If the Phoenix pace pair get the ball moving early, a target in the 140s stops looking comfortable.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
Our archive holds five previous meetings between these franchises, every one played when the London side carried its former name, Oval Invincibles. The record below therefore belongs to the franchise rather than to a team called MI London.
The dated results: the Phoenix won by 6 wickets at Edgbaston on 4 August 2021; by 10 runs at Kennington Oval on 23 August 2022; by 41 runs at Edgbaston on 13 August 2023; and by 4 wickets at Edgbaston on 12 August 2025. The single reply came on 23 July 2024, when Oval Invincibles won by 8 wickets in London. The venue split is the sharper detail: three of those five were played at Edgbaston, and the Phoenix won each of the three listed above. A small sample from a much-changed squad, but the one line of evidence pointing away from our prediction.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Edgbaston, Birmingham โ Capacity: 25,000. One of England's biggest grounds, where the 100-ball format produces modest totals rather than the run-fests its boundaries suggest.
- Pitch: True surface with pace on the ball. First-innings totals in this competition here run lower than the boundary sizes suggest, so par is more modest than it looks.
- Weather: Hot and dry. Birmingham is forecast to reach 33.6ยฐC with a 0% chance of rain, and evening humidity sits between 23% and 28% with a light breeze.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first, because results at this ground in this format lean toward the chasing side and nothing in the forecast discourages a chase. One caveat: dew usually rewards the chasing team in an evening game, and at this humidity there will be very little of it, so the edge rests on the ground's record rather than a wet ball. Our full Edgbaston, Birmingham toss read โ captain's likely choice, dew, chase-rate context โ is on the dedicated page.
Match Analysis: where this one will be won and lost
The first ten balls of each innings decide it. On a surface offering pace, Boult and Dwarshuis can take the game away from whichever side bats first before it properly starts.
The middle phase belongs to spin. Rehan Ahmed and Sikandar Raza will bowl the stretch where a 100-ball innings accelerates or stalls, and the side losing fewer wickets there will set or chase the better total. The case for an upset is real but narrow: the Phoenix are at home, their Edgbaston wins over this franchise came in 2021, 2023 and 2025, and a team with nothing to lose is an awkward opponent for one that still needs points. If they bat first and clear par comfortably, our model has this close to level.
Birmingham Phoenix vs MI London prediction: the visitors at 68.5%
We are backing MI London. The squad is deeper, the recent scorecards are better, and the market agrees closely enough that there is no argument to have with it. We land just under 69% on the visitors, barely more than a point above the bookmakers' 67.14%, which is about as aligned as our model and the market ever get.
The head-to-head is why this is not a bigger number. A dated record that runs the Phoenix's way, with Edgbaston wins in 2021, 2023 and 2025, should stop anyone treating a favourite as a formality. It is a small sample against a franchise since rebuilt and renamed, and we have weighed it as such rather than ignored it.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Phoenix | 31.5% | 32.86% | 2.77 | 3.17 |
| MI London | 68.5% | 67.14% | 1.53 | 1.46 |
The edge is on the favourite. MI London at a best available 1.53 against our fair price of 1.46 is a 4.8% edge, modest but real and the only positive number on this card. The Phoenix at 2.77 against a fair 3.17 are shorter than our model rates them. For a second angle, the toss is the live market, and our call is that the winner bowls. Odds captured on 11 August 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Birmingham Phoenix vs MI London in The Hundred 2026?
Our AI model predicts MI London to beat Birmingham Phoenix at Edgbaston on 12 August 2026, with a 68.5% win probability against 31.5%. Squad depth and their 45-run win over Manchester Super Giants on 2 August 2026 are the main reasons.
What is the toss prediction for this Edgbaston fixture?
Field first. Results in The Hundred at Edgbaston lean toward the side batting second, so we expect the toss winner in Birmingham Phoenix vs MI London to bowl. With humidity forecast between 23% and 28%, dew will add little to that advantage.
What are the best odds for Birmingham Phoenix vs MI London?
The best available price on MI London is 1.53 against our fair odds of 1.46, a 4.8% edge. Birmingham Phoenix are 2.77 against a fair price of 3.17. Odds captured on 11 August 2026.
How does the toss change the prediction at Edgbaston?
It moves our number by 7 points either way. If Birmingham Phoenix bat first, MI London rise to 75.5%; if the London side bats first, they fall to 61.5%. Edgbaston's record in this format favours the chasing team, which is why we expect the toss winner to field.
What is the head-to-head record between these two franchises?
Our archive holds five meetings, all played while MI London were named Oval Invincibles. Birmingham Phoenix won at Edgbaston in 2021, in 2023 and in 2025, and at Kennington Oval in 2022; Oval Invincibles won in London in July 2024.
What is the pitch like at Edgbaston for The Hundred?
Edgbaston holds 25,000 and offers a true surface with pace on the ball. First-innings totals in this competition at the ground are modest by 100-ball standards, and results lean toward the chasing team.
