Chhattisgarh vs Maharashtra Match Prediction

Maharashtra are overwhelming favourites after demolishing table-topping Mumbai by 128 runs on January 3. Chhattisgarh remain winless with three straight losses. But the market has overreacted - and there is value on the underdog.

Team Context and Recent Form

Maharashtra (W3-L2, 12 pts, 3rd in Group C): Riding a wave of confidence after their statement win over Mumbai. Arshin Kulkarni smashed 114 against Mumbai while Prithvi Shaw contributed 71 in a devastating opening partnership. Captain Ruturaj Gaikwad has been exceptional throughout - 257 runs in 5 innings at an average of 64.25, including a stunning 124 off 113 balls against Uttarakhand on December 31. This is one of the strongest batting lineups in the tournament, with Rahul Tripathi and Ankit Bawne providing middle-order depth.

Chhattisgarh (W0-L3+, 0 pts, bottom of Group C): A difficult campaign so far. Collapsed to 14/4 against Mumbai before captain Amandeep Khare rescued them with a patient 63 off 103 balls. Khare has scored three consecutive half-centuries this tournament - he is fighting hard, but lacks support from his teammates. The top order featuring Sanheet Desai and Ashutosh Singh has been consistently unreliable. Lost to Goa by 6 wickets, Punjab by 9 wickets, and Mumbai by 9 wickets in succession.

Head-to-Head

First meeting this season in VHT. The class gap is evident - Maharashtra beat the same Mumbai team that crushed Chhattisgarh by 9 wickets. The transitive comparison favours Maharashtra heavily.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Maharashtra are the likely winners at 78%. Their batting trio of Gaikwad, Shaw, and Kulkarni is formidable. Chhattisgarh have shown consistent fragility at the top of the order. Unless Khare produces another rescue act and the bowlers strike early to rattle Maharashtra's openers, the favourites should cruise to victory.

Maharashtra at 78% is our assessment. But we are betting Chhattisgarh.

Betting Value

VALUE on Chhattisgarh @ 7.85. Market implies 12.7% for Chhattisgarh - we have them at 22%. That is +9.3% edge. Maharashtra at 1.05 implies 95.2% - the market is treating this as a near-certainty, which it is not.

This is a high-variance underdog play. Chhattisgarh will lose more often than win. But at 7.85 odds, long-term EV is positive if our 22% assessment is accurate. Khare has shown fight. Upsets happen in List-A cricket. Fair odds: Maharashtra 1.28, Chhattisgarh 4.55.

Stake: 50 INR (0.5 units) - minimum stake due to high variance.