Tamil Nadu vs Tripura Match Prediction

Tripura are favourites in what looks like a classic value opportunity against a struggling Tamil Nadu. TN sit 6th in Group A with just 4 points from 5 matches, having lost their last 4 games. Tripura are 5th with 8 points, double their opponents. Vijay Shankar, who left Tamil Nadu for Tripura this season, adds a compelling revenge narrative to this fixture.

Team Context and Recent Form

Tamil Nadu (W1-L4, 4 pts, 6th): A team in freefall. Lost to Rajasthan by 10 runs on January 4, chasing just 226. Narayan Jagadeesan scored 74 and Varun Chakravarthy took 4/25, but it was not enough. Before that, a 9-wicket thrashing by Jharkhand where Jagadeesan fell for a duck. Sai Sudharsan is OUT with a rib fracture sustained December 26 - a massive blow to batting depth.

Tripura (W2-L3, 8 pts, 5th): Lost to Karnataka by 80 runs on January 3 but showed fight - Swapnil Singh scored a career-best 100 and Rajat Dey made 66 after the top 5 fell for 59. Beat Rajasthan by 66 runs earlier, where captain Manisankar Murasingh was Player of the Match (25 runs, 3/30). Vijay Shankar has been excellent - 91 runs vs MP and 4/30 vs Rajasthan.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Tripura have the edge through superior form, bowling depth, and the Vijay Shankar factor. TN have lost 4 straight and are missing their best batter in Sudharsan. The market has TN as heavy favourites based on reputation, but current form tells a different story. Murasingh and Shankar give Tripura genuine match-winning all-round options.

Tripura at 58% confidence is our pick.

Betting Value

Current odds of 2.55 imply just 39.2% for Tripura - a significant underestimation of their chances. TN at 1.45 (68.97% implied) is classic name-value mispricing given their current crisis. STRONG VALUE on Tripura at these odds - edge of +18.8%. Fair odds based on our analysis: TN 2.38, Tripura 1.72. Stake recommendation: 1.5 units given the exceptional edge.