Kerala vs Puducherry Match Prediction

Team Context and Recent Form

Kerala (W3-L2) sit comfortably in Elite Group A after a crushing 8-wicket win over Jharkhand on January 3. Chasing a daunting 312, Sanju Samson and captain Rohan Kunnummal put on a sensational 212-run opening partnership. Samson struck 101 off 95 balls while Kunnummal blazed 124 off 78 balls with 11 sixes. Kerala romped home in just 42.3 overs. Their two losses came against Karnataka (8 wickets) and Madhya Pradesh (47 runs when bowled out for 167).

Puducherry (W1-L4) have struggled throughout the tournament but secured their first win on January 3, beating Madhya Pradesh by 4 wickets. Captain Aman Khan was Player of the Match with 59* and 3/5. The significance: Puducherry beat the same MP side that defeated Kerala in Round 3, creating an interesting triangle of results. However, their other losses were heavy - 101 runs to Tamil Nadu, 7 wickets to Tripura, 133 runs to Jharkhand, and 67 runs to Karnataka.

A notable stat: Aman Khan holds the unwanted world record for the most expensive List A bowling spell ever - 0/123 in 10 overs against Jharkhand on December 29. He is volatile but capable of match-winning performances, as he showed against MP.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Kerala are the likely winners at around 76% probability. Their batting is far superior with the Samson-Kunnummal opening pair in devastating form. Both hit centuries in the last match, and Kerala chased 312 with ease. Puducherry have shown fight - they beat MP who beat Kerala - but lack consistency. Mohammed Azharuddeen adds firepower in the middle order, while Baba Aparajith provides all-round value.

Betting Value

VALUE pick: Puducherry @ 8.08 (+11.6% edge)

This is an underdog value bet. We assess Puducherry at 24% to win, but the market implies just 12.4%. At these odds, we only need them to win 1 in 8 to break even - and we think they win closer to 1 in 4. Aman Khan is volatile but dangerous. Jayant Yadav provides experience, and P. Sivaraman (69 vs MP) showed batting quality. Stake: 150 (1.5 units) based on strong edge. Expect to lose more often than win, but this is +EV long-term.