Goa vs Punjab Match Prediction

Punjab are heavy favourites but the market has overpriced them massively. At 1.09 (91.7% implied), the bookmakers expect Punjab to win 9 times out of 10. Our model gives them 72% - still strong favourites, but nowhere near that level of certainty. This creates +12.6% edge on Goa at 6.50.

Team Context and Recent Form

Punjab (W4-L1, 16 pts, 1st): Demolished Sikkim by 10 wickets on January 3. Arshdeep Singh took 5/34 as Sikkim collapsed to 75 all out. Prabhsimran Singh smashed 53* off 26 balls in a chase completed in 6.2 overs. Captain Abhishek Sharma leads a star-studded squad, with Shubman Gill expected to return after missing the Sikkim match due to food poisoning.

Goa (W3-L2, 12 pts, 4th): Lost their last two matches - to Uttarakhand by 7 wickets on January 3, and to Mumbai by 87 runs before that. Captain Deepraj Gaonkar has been their best performer this tournament - 71 off 48 balls AND 5/50 vs Himachal Pradesh. Snehal Kauthankar scored 105 vs Uttarakhand but could not prevent defeat. The bowling attack conceded 274/3 to Uttarakhand - Punjab will score more.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Punjab are the likely winners. Arshdeep Singh alone is better than Goas entire bowling attack. If Shubman Gill plays, the batting looks even more formidable alongside Prabhsimran and Abhishek Sharma. Goa have lost back-to-back games and conceded 274/3 in their last match - Punjab will exploit that weakness.

Punjab at 72% confidence to win.

Betting Value

Punjab at 1.09 (91.7% implied) has -19.7% edge - terrible value. The market has priced them as near-certainties, which they are not. Goa at 6.50 (15.4% implied) against our 28% probability gives +12.6% edge. This is a VALUE pick on the underdog. Goa will probably lose, but at these odds the bet is +EV long-term. Fair odds: Punjab 1.39, Goa 3.57. Back Goa @ 6.50 with 1.5 units.