Karnataka vs Rajasthan Match Prediction

Karnataka face Rajasthan in an Elite Group A clash at the Narendra Modi Stadium B in Ahmedabad on 6 January 2026. Defending champions Karnataka sit top of the group with a perfect W5-L0 record (20 points), while Rajasthan have struggled with a W1-L4 record. On paper, this looks like a mismatch. The betting market agrees, pricing Karnataka at 1.09. But the market has overcorrected, creating value on the underdog.

Team Context and Recent Form

Karnataka have been utterly dominant this tournament. Devdutt Padikkal is in the form of his life with 500+ runs and 4 centuries in 5 matches, including scores of 147 vs Jharkhand, 124 vs Kerala, 113 vs Puducherry, and 108 vs Tripura. The left-hander has been unstoppable at the top of the order, averaging over 100 this tournament. KL Rahul is available for this fixture before joining the India squad for the New Zealand ODI series, adding international class to an already stacked batting lineup. He scored 35 off 28 balls in his first VHT appearance this season against Tripura. Karun Nair (130* vs Kerala) and captain Mayank Agarwal provide further depth. Karnataka famously chased down 413 against Jharkhand in Round 1, demonstrating their batting firepower.

Rajasthan have had a difficult tournament, losing to Madhya Pradesh (by 99 runs) and Jharkhand (by 73 runs) before finally recording their first win against Tamil Nadu on January 3. Deepak Hooda scored 70 in that victory, showing he can deliver when needed. Manav Suthar, the left-arm spinner, took 3 wickets to support the batting effort and also contributed 43 runs with the bat. While Rajasthan are clear underdogs, they showed fight against Tamil Nadu and have nothing to lose against the tournament favourites. Sometimes, playing without pressure produces the best performances.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Karnataka are the likely winners with a 78% probability. Their batting firepower with Padikkal, Rahul, Nair, and Agarwal is formidable, and they have already beaten Jharkhand (who thrashed Rajasthan by 73 runs). However, cricket is inherently unpredictable, and even dominant teams lose roughly 20-25% of their matches. Rajasthan's recent win against Tamil Nadu shows they can compete when the pressure is off.

Betting Value

VALUE BET: Rajasthan @ 6.15. Karnataka at 1.09 implies a 91.7% win probability, which is excessive for any cricket match. Our model gives Karnataka 78%, meaning the market has overpriced them by nearly 14 percentage points. Rajasthan at 6.15 implies just 16.3% against our 22% assessment, offering a +5.7% edge. This is a classic underdog value play. Rajasthan will probably lose, but the odds more than compensate for the risk. Fair odds for Rajasthan would be around 4.55, making 6.15 excellent value. Stake recommendation: 1 unit.