Himachal Pradesh vs Mumbai Match Prediction

Mumbai remain favourites despite key injuries, but the margin is narrower than usual. Shreyas Iyer returns from a two-month spleen injury layoff to captain the side in this crucial Group C fixture. However, regular skipper Shardul Thakur is ruled out with a calf injury, and star batter Sarfaraz Khan is doubtful with quadriceps pain.

Team Context and Recent Form

Mumbai (W4-L1, 16 pts, 2nd): Suffered a heavy 128-run defeat to Maharashtra on January 3 - their first loss of the tournament. Sarfaraz Khan missed that match with quadriceps pain after his sensational 157 off 75 balls (14 sixes) against Goa on December 31. Musheer Khan has been steady with 55 and 60 in recent outings. The major blow is Shardul Thakur's calf injury - he took 11 wickets this tournament and will miss the remaining matches.

Himachal Pradesh (W2-L3, 8 pts, 6th): Lost a thriller to Chhattisgarh on January 3, failing to defend 320. Pukhraj Mann has been outstanding - 134 off 121 balls against Chhattisgarh, plus 126 vs Goa, 110 vs Maharashtra, and 76 vs Punjab. Innesh Mahajan contributed 95 in the Chhattisgarh match. The problem is bowling - conceding 321 in 49.4 overs despite posting 320 exposes a fundamental weakness that Mumbai's batting depth will target.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

Mumbai's batting remains formidable even without Sarfaraz - Shreyas Iyer, Musheer Khan, and Ajinkya Rahane provide depth that HP cannot match. The head-to-head record heavily favours Mumbai (innings victory in November's Ranji Trophy). HP's bowling has leaked runs consistently - if they couldn't defend 320 against Chhattisgarh, Mumbai's lineup will punish them. The only concern is Mumbai's weakened bowling attack without Thakur, but HP's batting outside Pukhraj Mann is inconsistent.

Mumbai at 75% confidence is our pick.

Betting Value

Current odds of 1.22 imply 82% for Mumbai - our model gives them 75%. No value on the favourite. Himachal Pradesh at 3.83 implies 26.1% - our model gives them 25%. The market has priced Mumbai's injuries correctly. Fair odds based on our analysis: Mumbai 1.33, Himachal Pradesh 4.00. This is a prediction-only tip with no betting value on either side. If you find Mumbai drifting above 1.33 or HP above 4.00, reconsider.