Gujarat vs Odisha Match Prediction

Two Group D rivals meet at Alur on 6 January 2026 with contrasting fortunes. Odisha sit 3rd with 12 points and a strong NRR of +0.975, while Gujarat languish in 6th with 8 points and need wins to stay in the knockout race.

Team Context and Recent Form

Odisha have been in exceptional batting form this tournament. On 24 December, opener Swastik Samal smashed 212 off 169 balls against Saurashtra - the 5th highest individual score in Vijay Hazare Trophy history. Though Odisha lost that game (Saurashtra chased 346), it demonstrated their batting firepower. More impressively, they beat Delhi by 79 runs on 31 December, posting 272/8 before bowling Delhi out for 193. Govind Poddar has emerged as their key all-rounder, winning Player of the Match against Andhra with 89 runs and 3/36.

Gujarat have had a mixed campaign. Their highlight was Axar Patel's maiden List A century - a stunning 130 off 111 balls against Andhra on 3 January, complemented by 2/27 with the ball. However, they lost to Delhi by just 7 runs after collapsing from 213/4 to 247 all out. Gujarat's over-reliance on Axar is concerning - when he fails, the batting depth looks fragile.

Key Players to Watch

Our Prediction

We give Odisha a 58% probability to win. The logic is straightforward: Odisha are higher in the table, have a significantly better NRR (+0.975 vs +0.178), and crucially beat Delhi who beat Gujarat. Their batting has posted 345, 305, and 272 in recent matches - they have the firepower to outscore Gujarat. Captain Biplab Samantray provides experience, while Samal and Poddar offer match-winning potential.

Betting Value

Bookmakers price Gujarat at 1.70 (58.8% implied) and Odisha at 2.02 (49.5% implied). The market has Gujarat as favourites despite being 6th in the table with two fewer wins than Odisha. This is a clear mispricing. Our model gives Odisha 58%, creating +8.5% edge. BET: Odisha @ 2.02, stake 1 unit.

Value Note: Classic underdog value. Odisha's superior form, table position, and NRR suggest the market is overrating Gujarat based on star names like Axar Patel. Back the team performing better, not the team with bigger names.