Indian Premier League
Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans Match Result & Analysis
RR Rajasthan Royals
GT Gujarat Titans
Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur
Our pre-match prediction 🎯 22/54 IPL predictions correctGujarat Titans won by 77 runs
We predicted Rajasthan Royals at 53%
How our prediction shifts based on batting order. Plan your bet before the toss.
- If Vaibhav Sooryavanshi extends his record strike rate (238 across 9 matches), Rajasthan shift 4 to 6 points further into favourites.
- If Riyan Parag's hamstring rules him out late and Rajasthan are forced to reshape the captaincy and middle order, our edge narrows by 2 to 3 points.
- If Jos Buttler reads the slow-spin pitch the way he did at this venue in his Royals years, Gujarat add 2 to 3 points.
- If Mohammed Siraj — Gujarat's standout pace bowler — adds another four-wicket haul, the entire scenario flips.
Two sides level on 12 points meet on Saturday 9 May 2026 in Jaipur with playoff implications carved between them. Rajasthan Royals sit 4th on net run rate plus 0.510; Gujarat Titans 5th on minus 0.147. Both have the same 6-4 record across 10 matches and pace attacks built around marquee international signings. Our AI model predicts Rajasthan to win at 53 percent — a slim home edge on a venue that produces some of the most chase-heavy outcomes in the IPL.
This is the second meeting between the sides in IPL 2026; the first was at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad on 4 April 2026, where Rajasthan won by 6 runs in their season opener. Across all 9 matches the franchises have ever played, between 2022 and 2026, Gujarat lead Rajasthan 6-3. At Sawai Man Singh, they have met three times across all 3 venue meetings ever played, between 2023 and 2025, with Gujarat winning two. Rajasthan's only home win against Gujarat came on 28 April 2025, when 14-year-old Vaibhav Sooryavanshi reached 100 off 35 balls and finished on 101 not out off 38 to chase 209.
Rajasthan's Form: Sooryavanshi the Variable, Spin the Foundation
Rajasthan arrive on the back of a 7-wicket home loss to Delhi on 1 May 2026, where they posted 225 for 6 batting first and watched Delhi chase 226 in 19.1 overs. Before that they beat Punjab by 6 wickets at Mullanpur on 28 April. Before that they lost a 5-wicket thriller at home to Sunrisers on 25 April — the match in which Vaibhav Sooryavanshi scored 103 off 37 balls. Earlier on 22 April they beat Lucknow by 40 runs in Lucknow, dismissing the hosts for 119 after posting 159 for 6.
The batting card revolves around the youngest player. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi has 400 runs in 9 matches at average 44.44 and strike rate 238.09 — the best strike rate among any IPL batter who has scored 300 or more runs in any season ever. He has one century, two fifties, 34 fours and 37 sixes. The 103 off 37 vs Sunrisers is the third-fastest century in IPL history. Yashasvi Jaiswal anchors the other end: 312 runs in 10 matches at 159, three fifties. Dhruv Jurel keeps wicket and bats at 3, with 290 runs at 151. Captain Riyan Parag has 207 runs at 23, with one fifty (90 his best); he is recovering from a hamstring tweak but is expected available.
The bowling has Jofra Archer as the lead. Fifteen wickets in 10 matches at average 21.27, economy 8.62 — and he has now passed Shane Watson as the franchise's all-time leading wicket-taker. Ravi Bishnoi adds the leg-spin: 11 wickets in 9 matches at economy 9.88, with a 4-fer best of 4 for 41. On the slow-spin Jaipur pitch, Bishnoi and Ravindra Jadeja dictate the middle overs.
Gujarat's Quality Top Three and Three-Win Run
Gujarat arrive on a strong recent run. On 26 April they chased 158 vs Chennai to win by 8 wickets. On 30 April they chased 155 against Royal Challengers to win by 4 wickets with 25 balls remaining. On 3 May at Ahmedabad they chased 163 to beat Punjab by 4 wickets with one ball remaining. Three chases, three wins. Before that the run was loss-loss — a 99-run hammering by Mumbai on 20 April and a 5-wicket loss to Royal Challengers on 24 April.
The top order is the strength. Captain Shubman Gill has 378 runs in 9 matches at strike rate 154.92. Sai Sudharsan has 328 runs in 9 matches at 162, with one century. Jos Buttler — signed to Gujarat at the 2025 mega auction for INR 15.75 crore — has 309 runs in 9 matches at 156. Buttler keeps wicket and brings deep IPL experience to a venue he played his Royals years at.
The bowling is the season's surprise. Mohammed Siraj has been Gujarat's standout pacer this season, with a four-wicket best of 4 for 17 against Sunrisers. Prasidh Krishna — the 2025 Purple Cap holder with 25 wickets at average 19.52 last season — has 12 wickets in 7 matches this campaign. Rashid Khan returned from a back injury and has 5 wickets including a 3 for 17 against Delhi. The Siraj-Rabada-Krishna triumvirate is one of the deepest pace attacks in the league.
Key Matchups
Vaibhav Sooryavanshi vs Mohammed Siraj at the top. The 15-year-old going at 238 against the league's most accurate powerplay pacer. If Siraj removes Sooryavanshi in the first three overs, Gujarat strangle the entire match. If Sooryavanshi survives the new ball, any score in the mid-160s looks very gettable.
Jos Buttler vs Ravi Bishnoi. Buttler against quality leg-spin on a slow-spin track is one of the highest-grade match-ups in the league. Bishnoi's wrong-un against the Buttler pull is the over to watch.
Captaincy under pressure. Riyan Parag's first season as Royals captain after the Sanju Samson trade to Chennai. Shubman Gill leads a Gujarat side trying to find playoff momentum. Both will manage the toss-conditional bowling changes carefully on a venue where each over costs less than nine runs on average.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
All-time IPL: Gujarat lead Rajasthan 6-3 across all 9 matches ever played, between 2022 and 2026. Gujarat dominated early with three wins in 2022 including the IPL final.
At Sawai Man Singh Stadium specifically, the two sides have met three times across all 3 venue meetings ever played, between 2023 and 2025. Gujarat have won two — by 9 wickets in May 2023 chasing 118, and by 3 wickets in 2024. Rajasthan won the most recent on 28 April 2025 by 8 wickets, chasing 209 in 15.5 overs with Vaibhav Sooryavanshi reaching 100 off 35 balls and finishing on 101 not out off 38.
In the IPL 2026 first leg at Narendra Modi Stadium on 4 April 2026, Rajasthan won by 6 runs — their season opener and first match of the campaign. The model balances the long-term Gujarat dominance with the recent reverse-fixture form and the Rajasthan home advantage to land at 53/47.
Sawai Man Singh Stadium, Jaipur · 30,000 capacity
Full Guide →63m – 80m boundaries
162
Avg 1st Innings
65%
Chase Win Rate
62%
Toss → Field
Minimal dew impact tonight. Toss advantage is reduced. Conditions relatively neutral.
Sawai Mansingh Stadium Jaipur has hosted 57+ IPL matches. The average score at Sawai Mansingh Stadium is 162, yet the 30,000-capacity ground has a 65% chase win rate — the highest score in IPL here is 219/5 (PBKS vs RR, 2025).
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Sawai Man Singh Stadium, Jaipur — Capacity 30,000. Established 1969. One of the lower-scoring IPL venues historically. Average first innings score is in the mid-to-high 160s; second innings around 154.
- Pitch: slow-spin red-soil surface with a slow outfield. Pace economy 8.6, spin economy 8.2 — both well below the IPL median. Spinners hold the middle overs.
- Boundaries: one of the longest straight boundaries in the IPL. Square boundaries at 63 metres. Hitting straight against the spinners is harder here than at any other venue.
- Weather: around 35 degrees at toss with low humidity. No rain risk. Moderate dew expected after the 17th over.
- Toss: the highest chase rate on the IPL circuit. Toss-winning captains have heavily favoured fielding at this ground. Both captains will almost certainly bowl on toss win.
Match Analysis: Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost
The shape of this match comes down to three factors.
Spinners in the middle overs. This venue rewards quality spin more than any other ground in the IPL. Rajasthan have Ravi Bishnoi and Ravindra Jadeja with home conditions in their favour. Gujarat counter with Rashid Khan and Washington Sundar. Whichever team's spin pair takes more middle-overs wickets controls the run rate. Spin economy at this venue is 8.2 — the over Rashid bowls to Sooryavanshi will likely decide the match.
The toss and the chase. A high chase rate above 60 percent and moderate dew gives the team batting second a seven-point edge over the pre-toss line. Both captains will bowl on toss win. The cleaner trade sits in the conditional market — wait for the coin and back the chasing side at improved odds.
The Sooryavanshi factor. A 15-year-old going at strike rate 238 in his first full IPL season is a genuine outlier. He is the variable that bookmakers cannot price properly. If Siraj removes him in the powerplay, Rajasthan are very gettable. If Sooryavanshi gets to 30, Rajasthan post above-par batting first or chase comfortably batting second.
Rajasthan vs Gujarat Prediction: Why We Lean Rajasthan but Wait for the Toss
Pre-toss: Rajasthan 53 percent, Gujarat 47 percent. Best Rajasthan 1.80 sits 4.8 percent below our fair price of 1.89. Best Gujarat 2.06 sits 3.3 percent below our fair 2.13. Neither price has positive value pre-toss.
The honest version of this prediction: Rajasthan have the home edge, the spin attack matched to conditions, and the most volatile batter in the league. Gujarat enter on a strong run of form and a deeper pace attack. The model lands marginally on Rajasthan, the market agrees, and neither posted price is generous. Watch the toss: if Gujarat bat first, Rajasthan at 1.80 carries an 8 percent edge — well above our value threshold and the cleanest play in the match.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajasthan Royals | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | 1.89 |
| Gujarat Titans | 47% | 47% | 2.06 | 2.13 |
Value Assessment: Both prices below fair, no clean pre-toss back. Rajasthan 1.80 sits 4.8 percent below our fair 1.89. Gujarat 2.06 sits 3.3 percent below fair 2.13. The market has both teams squeezed slightly tighter than the model would price.
In the conditional market: back Rajasthan if Gujarat win the toss and bat first, where probability lifts to 60 percent and 1.80 carries an 8 percent edge — well above our value threshold and the strongest play available in this fixture.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans on 9 May 2026?
Our AI model predicts Rajasthan Royals to win with 53 percent probability against Gujarat's 47 percent. The market sits at the same 53/47 split. Both teams are level on 12 points and split only by net run rate. The cleaner trade is the toss-conditional market.
What are the best odds for the RR vs GT match?
Across 13 sportsbooks at the time of writing, the best price on Rajasthan Royals is 1.80 and the best on Gujarat Titans is 2.06. Our fair odds are Rajasthan 1.89 and Gujarat 2.13. Both prices sit slightly below our fair lines — neither has clean pre-toss value. The conditional market is where the edge lies.
What is the toss prediction for RR vs GT at Sawai Man Singh Stadium?
The Jaipur surface has the highest chase rate on the IPL circuit, with chasing teams winning over 60 percent of matches. Toss-winning captains have heavily favoured fielding at this ground. Both captains will almost certainly bowl on toss win. The toss is worth roughly seven points of win probability either direction — the largest swing of any IPL venue.
What is the pitch like at Sawai Man Singh Stadium?
The Jaipur pitch is a slow-spin red-soil surface with a slow outfield. Pace economy 8.6, spin economy 8.2 — both well below the IPL median. The straight boundary is among the longest in the league; square boundaries 63 metres. Spinners dominate the middle overs and hitting straight is harder than at any other IPL venue.
How does the head-to-head record affect the prediction?
Gujarat lead Rajasthan 6-3 across all 9 IPL matches ever played, between 2022 and 2026. At Sawai Man Singh specifically, Gujarat lead 2-1 across all 3 venue meetings between 2023 and 2025. But Rajasthan won the IPL 2026 first leg by 6 runs at Ahmedabad on 4 April. Recent form and home advantage weigh against the long-term Gujarat dominance.
Who is Vaibhav Sooryavanshi and why does he matter?
Vaibhav Sooryavanshi is a 15-year-old opener for Rajasthan Royals who has scored 400 runs in 9 IPL 2026 matches at strike rate 238.09 — the best strike rate among any IPL batter to score 300 or more runs in any season. His 103 off 37 balls against Sunrisers on 25 April 2026 is the third-fastest century in IPL history. He is the most volatile batting variable in the match.
