Women's National Cricket League
Victoria Women vs South Australia Women Prediction & Betting Tips
VIC-W Victoria Women
SOA-W South Australia Women
Junction Oval, Melbourne·
🎯 338/570 predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • South Australia Women predicted to win with 53% probability
- • Victoria won the previous meeting by 2 wickets, with 3 balls left, in a day-night game on 29 September
- • Tahlia McGrath made 154 off 137 balls in that game, and Annabel Sutherland answered with 107 and 3 for 60
- • Our toss pick: bowl first, with rain and drizzle in the Melbourne forecast
- • Both prices sit just under our fair odds (1.81 against 1.88, 2.05 against 2.14), so the toss is the sharper angle
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Call heads or tails →South Australia Women start as narrow favourites.
Our AI model predicts South Australia Women to beat Victoria Women with 53% probability at Junction Oval, Melbourne on Thursday 1 October 2026. Victoria won the previous meeting there by 2 wickets with 3 balls left, running down South Australia's 290 for 7. South Australia won both meetings between these sides in the 2025-26 WNCL, though, and the prices make this close to an even contest.
Can South Australia Women build on Tahlia McGrath's 154?
South Australia were in trouble early in the last meeting. They were 60 for 4 after 12.4 overs and 97 for 5 after 20.5 overs, with the top order gone.
Tahlia McGrath then made 154 off 137 balls, with 17 fours and 3 sixes. Jemma Barsby batted with her for a long spell and made 50 off 71 balls, and the pair took South Australia to 264 before Annabel Sutherland bowled Barsby. The innings finished on 290 for 7 from 50 overs.
McGrath's bowling mattered too. She took 2 for 55 from her 10 overs, including Georgia Wareham for 88. Megan Schutt added 2 for 49 from 10 overs, and Emma de Broughe made 23 off 36 balls at the top of the order.
Victoria Women need Annabel Sutherland at her best again
Annabel Sutherland was player of the match on 29 September. She took 3 for 60 from her 10 overs, including McGrath in the final over, then made 107 off 96 balls with 13 fours.
Georgia Wareham gave her the support Victoria needed with 88 off 89 balls and 11 fours. Victoria were 65 for 3 after 14.3 overs and did not lose a fourth wicket until 229, when McGrath bowled Wareham.
The finish was nervy. Victoria went from 229 for 3 to 288 for 8 in the chase, and Kim Garth's 17 off 11 balls helped them over the line. They reached 293 for 8 in 49.3 overs, with Rhys McKenna's 22 off 37 balls at the top of the order.
Key Matchups: Annabel Sutherland against Tahlia McGrath
Annabel Sutherland vs Tahlia McGrath: These two decided the last meeting. McGrath scored 154 and bowled Wareham; Sutherland scored 107 and dismissed McGrath in the final over. Whichever of them has the bigger day this time is likely to settle the result.
Megan Schutt vs Annabel Sutherland: Schutt took 2 for 49 and ended Sutherland's innings for 107, with McGrath taking the catch. Victoria still had runs to find when she fell, so South Australia will want Schutt bowling at her early.
Victoria's bowlers vs South Australia's top order: Kim Garth took 1 for 63, Sophie Day 1 for 43 and Rhys McKenna 1 for 38 in the last meeting, as South Australia slid to 60 for 4. A similar start would ask McGrath to rescue South Australia again.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
South Australia Women won both meetings between these sides in the 2025-26 WNCL, played in February 2026: one by 2 wickets with 7 balls remaining, and one by 6 wickets with 22 balls remaining.
The first meeting of the new season went the other way. At Junction Oval on 29 September 2026, Victoria Women ran down 290 for 7 and won by 2 wickets with 3 balls to spare.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Junction Oval, Melbourne hosts this day-night game. When these sides met at the ground on 29 September, the side batting first made 290 for 7 and the chasing side won with 3 balls to spare.
- Pitch: South Australia's 290 for 7 was matched in the last over, so a total near 290 has already been chased down at this ground this season.
- Weather: Rain and drizzle are forecast in Melbourne for 1 October, with a 2:00 pm local start (04:00 UTC).
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — rain is forecast, and Victoria won the last meeting batting second. See the toss prediction for VIC-W vs SOA-W, locked in before the toss happens.
Match Analysis: where this match will be won and lost
The last meeting turned on two recoveries. South Australia went from 97 for 5 to 264 before Barsby fell, and Victoria went from 65 for 3 to 229 before Wareham fell.
Both top orders failed early in that game. South Australia were 60 for 4 after 12.4 overs, and Victoria lost three wickets for 65. The side that avoids an early slide is likely to control the match.
Rain is the other factor. Drizzle and showers are forecast for Melbourne, and a shortened game would make the toss and the chase more important than usual.
Victoria Women vs South Australia Women Prediction: South Australia to win
Our AI model gives South Australia Women a 53% chance to beat Victoria Women on Thursday 1 October, with Victoria at 47%. South Australia won both 2025-26 meetings and have McGrath in form after her 154. Victoria Women won the most recent game, though, and Sutherland's 107 and 3 for 60 show how quickly they can turn it.
The match-winner market is fairly priced on both sides, so the toss is the angle: we expect the toss winner to bowl first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Women | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | 2.14 |
| South Australia Women | 53% | 53% | 1.81 | 1.88 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Our 53% for South Australia matches the market's price, so their available 1.81 sits under our fair odds of 1.88, and Victoria's 2.05 is below our 2.14. The toss call is the more interesting angle for this game. Odds captured on 30 September 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Victoria Women vs South Australia Women in the Women's National Cricket League?
Our AI model predicts South Australia to beat Victoria with 53% probability at Junction Oval, Melbourne (1 October 2026). South Australia won both of their 2025-26 WNCL meetings, although Victoria won the most recent game.
What is the toss prediction for Victoria Women vs South Australia Women?
Our toss call for Victoria v South Australia in Melbourne is to bowl first. Rain is forecast for the day, and Victoria won the previous meeting at the ground batting second.
What are the best odds for Victoria Women vs South Australia Women?
The available odds for Victoria v South Australia are 2.05 on Victoria and 1.81 on South Australia. Our fair odds are 2.14 and 1.88, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who won the last match between Victoria Women and South Australia Women?
Victoria beat South Australia by 2 wickets with 3 balls left at Junction Oval, Melbourne (29 September 2026). South Australia made 290 for 7, with Tahlia McGrath scoring 154, and Victoria reached 293 for 8 in 49.3 overs.
Who was player of the match when Victoria beat South Australia?
Annabel Sutherland was player of the match when Victoria beat South Australia in September 2026. She made 107 off 96 balls and took 3 for 60 from 10 overs.
What time does Victoria v South Australia start?
The WNCL match between Victoria and South Australia starts at 2:00 pm local time in Melbourne (Thursday 1 October 2026), which is 9:30 am IST and 04:00 UTC. It is a 50-over day-night game in Melbourne.
