Bangladesh vs Malaysia Toss Prediction
Asian Games 2026 · 4th Quarter-Final · Tuesday, 29 September 2026 · 04:30 UTC (13:30 local) · Korogi Sports Park, Nisshin
Toss prediction from ground record, toss habits and start time
What will the toss winner choose?
Bat first · 63% bat-first
Bat first — captains have chosen to bat in 5 of 6 men's T20 tosses at Korogi Sports Park (2026), and a daytime start means no dew, so fewer captains choose to chase. Our model puts the chance that the toss winner bats first at 63%.
- Based on
- Ground record, toss habits and start time
- Tosses at this ground
- 6
- Chose to field
- 16.7%
- Period
- 2026
Graded automatically once the toss is published. The result is recorded on this page either way.
What we looked at
- Captains bat first here. 5 of 6 toss winners have batted at Korogi Sports Park since 2026 (83%).(points to batting first)
- The sides differ. Bangladesh have fielded in 7 of their last 10 tosses won; Malaysia have fielded in 5 of their last 10 tosses won.(points neither way)
- No dew. Daytime start (13:30 local): conditions hold for both innings.(points to batting first)
- Rain around. A shortened game hands the chasing side a revised target (0.2 mm forecast in the first hour).(points to bowling first)
- Batting first wins here. Only 2 of 6 chasing sides have won (33.3%).(points to batting first)
- Our call: bat first — 63%. Weighs this ground's toss record, both sides' toss habits and the start time. Graded against the real toss and shown on our public ledger.(points to batting first)
Cyan dots point to bowling first, amber to batting first, grey to neither.
Last 6 tosses at Korogi Sports Park
| Date | Toss winner | Chose | Match winner | Chased? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Papua New Guinea | Bat | Papua New Guinea | No |
| 2026-05-10 | Fiji | Bat | Japan | Yes |
| 2026-05-09 | Papua New Guinea | Bat | Papua New Guinea | No |
| 2026-05-09 | Japan | Bat | Japan | No |
| 2026-05-08 | Cook Islands | Field | Cook Islands | Yes |
| 2026-05-08 | Vanuatu | Bat | Vanuatu | No |
Men's T20 matches only, newest first, from ball-by-ball records.
What each side tends to do
Bangladesh have chosen to field in 59 of the 98 tosses they won in our men's T20 data (last 11: 8 field).
Malaysia have chosen to field in 33 of the 72 tosses they won in our men's T20 data (last 11: 6 field).
Part of our call: it weighs this ground's toss record, both sides' toss habits and the start time.
Does the toss matter at Korogi Sports Park?
In 6 decided men's T20 matches here, the side batting second won 2 (33.3%).
Start: 04:30 UTC · 13:30 local time (day match).
Forecast at the start: 22°C · humidity 92% · overcast · rain
Weather from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), fetched 2026-09-27 06:07 UTC. Shown for context; the forecast is not part of the number.
How this BAN vs MLY toss prediction is made
We do not predict who wins the coin — that is 50/50. We predict what the winner will choose. We weigh how often captains at this ground have chosen to field, what each side has chosen when it won the toss (recent seasons count most), and the start time — an evening start brings dew, which pushes captains to bowl first. Each is weighed against the men's T20 average (61%) so that a handful of matches can never produce an extreme number. For this match we had this ground's toss record, both sides' toss habits and the start time.
A fair word on what this is and is not: it is a probability, not a certainty. A call near 50% means the choice really is close. Every call here is checked in public once the toss decision is published.
Full method, dew and captaincy context: how the toss call is built.
BAN vs MLY toss prediction FAQ
What is the BAN vs MLY toss prediction?
Bat first — captains have chosen to bat in 5 of 6 men's T20 tosses at Korogi Sports Park (2026), and a daytime start means no dew, so fewer captains choose to chase. Our model puts the chance that the toss winner bats first at 63%. We predict the decision, not the coin: whoever wins the toss, this is what we expect them to do.
Does winning the toss matter at Korogi Sports Park?
In 6 decided men's T20 matches at Korogi Sports Park in our data, the side batting second won 2 (33.3%). The toss sets which side gets that choice; it does not decide the match.
How is this toss prediction made?
We weigh three things: how often captains at this ground have chosen to field, what each side has chosen when it won the toss (recent seasons count most), and the start time — an evening start brings dew, which pushes captains to bowl first. Each is weighed against the men's T20 average (61%) so that a small sample cannot produce an extreme number. The result is added after the toss and stays on this page.
What happened at the toss?
The toss has not happened yet. When it has, the result is recorded here against the call above.
More toss predictions
More toss predictions today →·This call is graded in our public toss record →
Last updated: 2026-09-27. Published 2026-09-27.
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