Auckland vs Otago Match 13 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Pick: Auckland to win, at 53.7%.
Auckland
Otago 46%
Toss Prediction
We put the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 71%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Pick: Auckland to win, at 53.7%.
- • Toss call: Field first, at 71%. See the toss prediction for AUCK vs OTAGO, locked in before the toss happens.
- • Key fact: Auckland won all four Ford Trophy meetings with Otago since the 2024-25 season, including by 95 runs at Eden Park Outer Oval (30 October 2025).
- • Value: Auckland's fair odds are 1.86, and Dafabet had them at 1.84 at 03:16 IST (11 November).
We back Auckland, at 53.7%.
Auckland beat Otago by 6 wickets in Queenstown (17 February 2026), their latest Ford Trophy meeting.
Both sides lost on 8 November 2026. Wellington beat Auckland by 28 runs, and Northern Districts beat Otago by 3 wickets.
This 13th Match of The Ford Trophy 2026-27 starts at 3:00 am IST (21:30 UTC) at Eden Park Outer Oval in Auckland.
Which team is stronger, Auckland or Otago?
Auckland, by a small margin, and the market agrees. Their batting has the higher ceiling this season.
Auckland made 361 for 5 against Canterbury at their home ground (28 October 2026). Sean Solia made 120 off 119 balls for Auckland in that innings, with Dale Phillips on 112 off 95 balls.
Auckland won that game by 33 runs on the DLS method.
Phillips then made 106 off 108 balls for Auckland against Central Districts at Saxton Oval (4 November 2026). Cam Fletcher added 72 off 87 balls as Auckland reached 357 for 7.
Auckland won that one by 74 runs. Their bowling did the work in Mount Maunganui, where Angus Olliver took 3 for 23 in 9.4 overs for Auckland against Northern Districts (31 October 2026).
The Basin Reserve was a setback. Olliver took 4 for 42 in ten overs for Auckland when Wellington were all out for 205 (8 November 2026).
Auckland were then all out for 177 and lost by 28 runs.
Jacob Cumming made 71 off 62 balls for Otago against Wellington at the Basin Reserve (29 October 2026), and Otago won by 6 wickets.
Ben Lockrose made 66 off 68 balls for Otago against Central Districts at University Oval (1 November 2026), and Otago won that game by 29 runs.
Luke Georgeson, the Otago captain, took 3 for 20 in ten overs against Canterbury in Dunedin (4 November 2026). Otago won by 6 wickets.
Jamal Todd made 77 off 66 balls for Otago against Northern Districts at Cobham Oval (8 November 2026), and Otago reached 258 for 9.
Lockrose then took 4 for 50 in ten overs for Otago, but Northern Districts got home by 3 wickets.
Key matchups: Dale Phillips against Ben Lockrose, Jacob Cumming against Angus Olliver
Dale Phillips against Ben Lockrose. Dale Phillips made 106 off 108 balls for Auckland against Central Districts in Nelson (4 November 2026), a week after his 112 against Canterbury.
Ben Lockrose's 4 for 50 for Otago against Northern Districts (8 November 2026) makes him Otago's likeliest answer.
Jacob Cumming against Angus Olliver. Jacob Cumming made 63 off 88 balls for Otago against Canterbury at University Oval (4 November 2026).
Angus Olliver took 4 for 42 in ten overs for Auckland against Wellington (8 November 2026). If he removes Cumming early, Auckland's bowling gets on top.
Auckland vs Otago head to head
Auckland
4
Otago
0
Auckland lead 4-0 across their Ford Trophy meetings since the 2024-25 season
Otago were all out for 137 in Auckland (30 October 2025), and Auckland won that meeting by 95 runs.
Auckland vs Otago pitch report: Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland
A good batting pitch, where Auckland made 361 for 5 against Canterbury in the Ford Trophy (28 October 2026).
Ford Trophy games at the ground, from 30 October 2025 to 28 October 2026
Central Districts 337 for 5, then Auckland all out for 201, 8 November 2025.
Auckland 240 for 8, then Wellington 243 for 5 in 43.5 overs, 10 February 2026.
Auckland all out for 232, then Otago all out for 137, 30 October 2025.
Overcast with light rain around the start, about 19°C. The chance of showers peaks near 63% in the early afternoon, with little rain forecast, and it dries out by the evening. Forecast read 11 November, 03:16 IST.
Canterbury won the toss and chose to bowl against Auckland there (28 October 2026), and Auckland then made 361 for 5.
Auckland vs Otago prediction: we back Auckland at 54%
We back Auckland, 53.7%, with the market at 51.7%.
The meetings are Auckland's strongest card. Otago chose to bowl in Auckland (30 October 2025), and Auckland were all out for 232.
Otago were then all out for 137, and Auckland won by 95 runs.
Auckland's batting is the other reason. They also made 357 for 7 against Central Districts at Saxton Oval (4 November 2026).
Otago's case is their chasing. Otago made 214 for 4 in 37.1 overs to beat Wellington by 6 wickets (29 October 2026).
Rain is the wild card. The forecast for Auckland has showers around the start, and a shortened game would bring Otago closer.
Dafabet had Auckland at 1.84 at 03:16 IST (11 November), just under our fair 1.86, and Otago at 1.97, under our 2.16. The toss call is the sharper angle.
What decides Auckland vs Otago
- The toss. We expect the toss winner to bowl, at 71%, as Auckland did when they beat Otago in Queenstown (17 February 2026).
- The weather. Showers are forecast around the 3:00 am IST start, with the chance of rain in Auckland near 63% in the early afternoon.
- Dale Phillips. His 112 off 95 balls for Auckland against Canterbury (28 October 2026) came at this ground.
- Otago's bowling. Luke Georgeson took 3 for 20 in ten overs for Otago against Canterbury (4 November 2026), and Otago need that kind of control again.
Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 53.7% | 51.7% | 1.84 | 1.86 |
| Otago | 46.3% | 48.3% | 1.97 | 2.16 |
At 03:16 IST, both prices sat under our fair odds. Dafabet had Auckland at 1.84 and Otago at 1.97 at 03:16 IST (11 November).
Auckland's 1.84 sits just under our fair odds of 1.86, and Otago's 1.97 under our 2.16, so the toss call is the angle to play here. Odds captured on 11 November 2026.
Ford Trophy
Auckland vs Otago odds
12 Nov 2026 · 03:00 IST
Match winner: Auckland 1.84, Otago 1.97 at Dafabet; checked 03:33 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AUCK | 2OTAGO | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Auckland ▲1.84 | 2 · Otago ▲1.97 | Payout95.1% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Auckland vs Otago in the Ford Trophy?
Auckland. Our AI model gives them a 53.7% chance against Otago at Eden Park Outer Oval in Auckland. Auckland beat Otago by 6 wickets in the sides' latest Ford Trophy meeting (17 February 2026), and Dale Phillips made 106 for Auckland against Central Districts on 4 November 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Auckland vs Otago?
Field first, at 71%. Auckland won the toss and chose to bowl against Northern Districts (31 October 2026) and Wellington (8 November 2026). Otago chose to bowl after winning the toss against Wellington (29 October 2026) and Canterbury (4 November 2026).
What are the odds for Auckland vs Otago?
Dafabet had Auckland at 1.84 and Otago at 1.97 at 03:16 IST (11 November). Our fair odds are 1.86 for Auckland and 2.16 for Otago, so both prices sat under our numbers for this Ford Trophy game, and the toss call is the sharper angle.
Is Eden Park Outer Oval a batting or bowling pitch?
A good batting pitch. Auckland made 361 for 5 against Canterbury at the ground in the Ford Trophy (28 October 2026), and Central Districts made 337 for 5 there (8 November 2025). Wellington made 243 for 5 in 43.5 overs to beat Auckland at the ground (10 February 2026).
When did Auckland and Otago last play each other in the Ford Trophy?
On 17 February 2026 at John Davies Oval in Queenstown. Auckland won the toss and chose to bowl, then bowled Otago out for 158. Auckland reached 161 for 4 in 23.4 overs to win by 6 wickets.
What time does Auckland vs Otago start?
At 3:00 am IST, which is 21:30 UTC. Eden Park Outer Oval in Auckland hosts this 13th Match of The Ford Trophy 2026-27, and showers are forecast around the start, so check for a delayed toss or a shortened game before you bet.
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