DC Dhaka Capitals
RR Rangpur Riders
Bangladesh Premier League
Dhaka Capitals vs Rangpur Riders Match Prediction
Last updated: 16 January 2026
Rangpur Riders enter as clear favourites needing just one win to secure their playoff spot. Dhaka Capitals sit 5th with a 2-6 record and are effectively eliminated. Mustafizur Rahman leads the tournament with 13 wickets while Faheem Ashraf has been devastating with 11 wickets in three matches including a 5/17 haul.
Team Context and Recent Form
Rangpur Riders (4W-4L, 8 pts, 4th): Beat Dhaka by 5 runs on January 4 in their previous meeting. Towhid Hridoy leads with 207 runs this season - he scored an unbeaten 97 against Rajshahi recently. Dawid Malan (203 runs) and captain Nurul Hasan provide stability. Bowling looks strong with Mustafizur (13 wkts) and Faheem Ashraf (11 wkts, 5/17 vs Chattogram).
Dhaka Capitals (2W-6L, 4 pts, 5th): On a 4-match losing streak including a 41-run loss to bottom-placed Noakhali on January 11. Taskin Ahmed (captain, 3 wkts in 5 matches) is OUT with a knee injury - a significant leadership blow. Shamim Hossain and Nasir Hossain have been their main contributors but lack support. Odean Smith may replace Taskin's pace role but brings less experience.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mustafizur Rahman | RR | Left-arm pace | 13 wickets this BPL |
| Towhid Hridoy | RR | Batter | 207 runs, 97* vs RJW |
| Faheem Ashraf | RR | All-rounder | 11 wkts in 3 games, 5/17 vs CHR |
| Mohammad Mithun (C) | DC | WK-batter | Leading from front with Taskin out |
| Odean Smith | DC | Pace all-rounder | Taskin's replacement, unproven in BPL |
Our Prediction
Rangpur have the edge with superior form, playoff motivation, and a full-strength squad. Dhaka are missing their injured captain Taskin, are on a 4-match losing streak, and have nothing to play for. RR already beat DC by 5 runs on January 4. Unless Dhaka produce a miracle turnaround, Rangpur should secure their playoff spot.
Rangpur Riders at 63% confidence is our pick.
Betting Value
Rangpur at 1.60 implies 62.5% probability. Our model gives RR 63%, creating a +0.5% edge. Dhaka at 2.38 implies 42.0% against our 37%, offering no value on either side.
The edge is below our 2% threshold. The market has priced RR's advantages (form, motivation, full squad) correctly. Fair odds are RR at 1.59 and DC at 2.70. No bet recommended, but Rangpur Riders should win comfortably.
