Bangladesh Premier League
Dhaka Capitals vs Rangpur Riders — Prediction Correct ✅
DC Dhaka Capitals
RR Rangpur Riders
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur, Dhaka
Our pre-match predictionResult: Rangpur Riders won by 11 runs (181/4 vs 170/7)
Our Pick: RR @ 1.60 (+4.5% edge)
Outcome: Won (+0.30 units)
* 1 unit = 1% of bankroll
Pre-match analysis published on 17 January 2026:
Rangpur Riders are clear favourites against a struggling Dhaka Capitals side. RR sit 4th with 8 points (4W-4L), while DC languish in 5th on just 4 points (2W-6L). Towhid Hridoy leads RR with 207 runs this tournament. Mustafizur Rahman has been devastating with 13 wickets at 7.07 economy.
Team Context and Recent Form
Rangpur Riders (4W-4L, 8 pts, 4th): Beat DC by 5 runs on January 4 with Mahmudullah scoring 51 off 41 (POTM). Three batters in the tournament top 10: Hridoy (207 runs), Dawid Malan (203 runs, avg 40.6), and Khushdil Shah (190 runs, SR 153.23). Faheem Ashraf has rejoined the squad after Pakistan duty, adding to an already potent attack featuring Mustafizur (13 wkts) and Faheem himself (11 wkts, 6.59 econ).
Dhaka Capitals (2W-6L, 4 pts, 5th): On a brutal 4-match losing streak, including a loss to bottom-placed Noakhali Express. No batters in the top 10 run scorers. Taskin Ahmed is doubtful with a knee injury and has been ineffective anyway (3 wkts, 9.77 econ in 5 matches). The team is also reeling from the tragic death of fast-bowling coach Mahbub Ali Zaki during the tournament. Captain Mohammad Mithun (56 off 38 vs RR) and Rahmanullah Gurbaz remain their only threats.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Towhid Hridoy | RR | Batter | 207 runs, SR 127.78 |
| Mustafizur Rahman | RR | Pacer | 13 wkts, 7.07 econ - tournament leading |
| Faheem Ashraf | RR | All-rounder | 11 wkts, 6.59 econ - just returned |
| Mohammad Mithun (C) | DC | WK-Bat | 56 off 38 vs RR on Jan 4 |
Our Prediction
RR have the edge in every department. Superior batting depth with three in the top 10. Dominant bowling with Mustafizur and the returning Faheem. Already beat DC this season. DC have not won in 4 matches, their main pacer is injured, and team morale is low after their coachs death. Unless Gurbaz or Mithun produce something special, DC are set for another defeat.
Rangpur Riders at 67% confidence is our pick.
Betting Value
RR at 1.60 implies 62.5% probability. Our model gives RR 67%, creating a +4.5% edge. DC at 2.35 implies 42.6% against our 33%, offering no value on that side. Fair odds for RR are 1.49, so 1.60 represents genuine value.
With a 4.5% edge above our 2% threshold, we recommend 0.5 units on Rangpur Riders. RR should extend DCs misery.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We recommend 1.5u for edges above 8%, 1u for 5-8%, and 0.5u for edges between 2-5%.
