Gambia vs Uganda Match 9 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Uganda predicted to win with 96% probability
Uganda
Gambia 4%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 87%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Uganda predicted to win with 96% probability
- • Olipa Gerald made 82 off 42 balls for Uganda against Zambia on 20 October 2026
- • Nigeria beat Gambia by 160 runs at Oval 2, the ground for this game, on 20 October 2026
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 87%
- • The market broadly agrees with our model on Uganda, so the toss is the angle
Uganda to beat Gambia in Abuja.
Our AI model predicts Uganda to beat Gambia with a 96% win probability in the ninth match of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja. Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs (20 October 2026) and Lesotho by five wickets on 21 October 2026.
Nigeria beat Gambia by 160 runs at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026, and Mozambique beat Gambia by 28 runs at Oval 1 the next day.
Six teams play each other once at two grounds in Abuja: Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, Lesotho, Mozambique and Gambia. The top two go through to the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
Olipa Gerald heads a Uganda batting order in form
Uganda batted first after winning the toss against Zambia at Oval 1 in Abuja on 20 October 2026. Uganda made 195 for 6 in 20 overs.
Olipa Gerald made 82 from 42 balls in that innings against Zambia (20 October 2026). Riazat Ali Shah added 38 off 20 balls for Uganda in the same innings.
Zambia were bowled out for 108 in 17.3 overs in reply, and Uganda won by 87 runs.
Lesotho won the toss and batted against Uganda at Oval 2 on 21 October 2026. Lesotho were bowled out for 87 in 19.3 overs.
Uganda reached 89 for 5 in 12.3 overs in reply, and beat Lesotho by five wickets with 45 balls remaining. Riazat Ali Shah scored 26 from 15 balls in that win over Lesotho (21 October 2026).
Uganda came to Abuja from the Africa Continental Cup at Gahanga International Cricket Stadium in Rwanda. Uganda beat Rwanda by 72 runs at Gahanga on 17 September 2026, after making 188 for 2.
Robinson Obuya made 118 not out off 70 balls in that innings against Rwanda (17 September 2026).
Uganda beat Kenya by 47 runs at Gahanga on 18 September 2026, after making 197 for 7. Olipa Gerald hit 95 off 52 balls in that 18 September win over Kenya.
Kenya then beat Uganda by 39 runs in the Africa Continental Cup final, on 19 September 2026. Uganda were bowled out for 131 in 17.5 overs, and Riazat Ali Shah made 53 from 33 balls in the 19 September final.
Can David Demba keep Gambia in the contest?
Nigeria won the toss and batted against Gambia at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026. Nigeria made 262 for 1 in 20 overs.
Gambia were bowled out for 102 in 17.2 overs in reply, and Nigeria won by 160 runs. Andre Jarju made 39 off 38 balls for Gambia in the 20 October game against Nigeria.
Frank Campbell scored 25 from 20 balls in Gambia's innings against Nigeria. David Demba made 19 off 8 balls for Gambia in the same innings.
Mozambique chose to bat after winning the toss against Gambia at Oval 1 (21 October 2026), then made 148 for 6 in 20 overs.
Gambia reached 120 for 8 in their 20 overs, and Mozambique won by 28 runs. David Demba made 45 not out from 29 balls in that innings against Mozambique on 21 October 2026.
Gambia played the 2024 Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group B in Nairobi. Kenya beat Gambia by 129 runs at the Gymkhana Club Ground on 22 October 2024, after Gambia were bowled out for 46.
Zimbabwe beat Gambia by 290 runs at Ruaraka Sports Club Ground in Nairobi on 23 October 2024, after Zimbabwe made 344 for 4.
Gambia batted first after winning the toss against Mozambique at Ruaraka on 24 October 2024, and made 142 for 5 in 20 overs. Mozambique won that game by six wickets, with seven balls remaining.
Key matchups: Uganda's top order against Gambia's bowlers
Olipa Gerald vs Gambia's new ball: Olipa Gerald made 82 in 42 balls when Uganda beat Zambia on 20 October 2026. Gerald made 95 in 52 balls when Uganda beat Kenya at Gahanga (18 September 2026).
Riazat Ali Shah vs Gambia's middle overs: Riazat Ali Shah scored 38 in 20 balls against Zambia in Abuja (20 October 2026). Shah made 53 in 33 balls when Kenya beat Uganda in the Africa Continental Cup final (19 September 2026).
Robinson Obuya vs Gambia's attack: Robinson Obuya made 118 not out in 70 balls when Uganda beat Rwanda at Gahanga, the 17 September 2026 game.
David Demba vs Uganda's bowlers: David Demba made 45 not out in 29 balls when Mozambique beat Gambia at Oval 1 on 21 October 2026.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Gambia and Uganda meet at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2 on 23 October 2026. Both sides have played Kenya in T20 internationals.
Kenya beat Gambia by 129 runs at the Gymkhana Club Ground in Nairobi on 22 October 2024. Uganda beat Kenya by 47 runs at Gahanga on 18 September 2026, and Kenya beat Uganda by 39 runs in the Africa Continental Cup final at Gahanga a day later.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja hosts Gambia v Uganda, the ninth match of the qualifier, on Friday 23 October 2026.
- Pitch: Nigeria made 262 for 1 batting first against Gambia at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026. Uganda bowled Lesotho out for 87 in 19.3 overs at Oval 2 (21 October 2026).
- Weather: A day game in Abuja.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 87%. Uganda, Lesotho and Nigeria won the toss and batted in the 20 October 2026 games, and Mozambique, Lesotho and Zambia won it and batted in the 21 October 2026 games. Our GM vs UGA pre-toss pick goes on the public toss page and gets tracked once the toss is done.
Match Analysis: where Gambia need to beat Uganda
Gambia's best chance is to bat first and post a total, as they did against Mozambique at Ruaraka, when Gambia made 142 for 5 (24 October 2024).
Gambia's batting also has to last 20 overs. Nigeria bowled Gambia out for 102 in 17.2 overs at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026.
Uganda's batting carries the favourite's price. Uganda made 195 for 6 against Zambia in Abuja, and 197 for 7 against Kenya at Gahanga on 18 September 2026.
Gambia vs Uganda prediction: Uganda at 96%
We back Uganda at 96%. Uganda have beaten Zambia and Lesotho in Abuja, and Olipa Gerald made 82 from 42 balls against Zambia on 20 October 2026.
Uganda's price of 1.02 sits just under our fair odds of 1.04, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced and the toss is the angle: bat first at 87%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gambia | 4% | 3.0% | 10.00 | 25.00 |
| Uganda | 96% | 97.0% | 1.02 | 1.04 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Uganda at 1.02 sit just under our fair odds of 1.04, and Gambia at 10.00 under our fair 25.00. The market broadly agrees with our model on Uganda. The toss is the angle, where our call is bat first at 87%. Odds captured on 22 October 2026.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026
Gambia vs Ugandaodds
23 Oct 2026 · 18:30 IST
Match winner: Gambia 15.00 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Uganda 1.02 at Dafabet; checked 21:48–21:50 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1GM | 2UGA | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Gambia 10.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.02 | Payout92.6% |
 | 1 · Gambia 15.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Gambia 15.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Gambia 15.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Gambia 15.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Gambia 15.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Gambia 15.00 | 2 · Uganda 1.01 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Gambia15.00 | 2 · Uganda1.02 | Payout– |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Gambia vs Uganda in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C?
Our AI model predicts Uganda to beat Gambia, with a 96% win probability, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja on 23 October 2026. Olipa Gerald made 82 off 42 balls for Uganda against Zambia on 20 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Gambia vs Uganda?
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 87% for Gambia vs Uganda in Abuja. Uganda chose to bat after winning the toss against Zambia (20 October 2026), and Nigeria won the toss and batted against Gambia the same day.
What are the odds for Gambia vs Uganda?
At the time of writing, 22 October 2026, Gambia are 10.00 and Uganda 1.02. Our fair odds are 25.00 and 1.04, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who are the key players for Gambia and Uganda?
For Uganda, Olipa Gerald made 95 from 52 balls against Kenya (18 September 2026). For Gambia, David Demba made 45 not out against Mozambique on 21 October 2026.
How have Gambia and Uganda started the qualifier?
Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs on 20 October 2026, then beat Lesotho by five wickets a day later. Nigeria beat Gambia by 160 runs on 20 October 2026. Mozambique won by 28 runs against Gambia on 21 October 2026.
How does the Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C work?
Six teams, including Gambia and Uganda, play each other once in Abuja in October 2026. The top two reach the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
