Zambia vs Lesotho Match 8 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Zambia predicted to win with 69% probability
Zambia
Lesotho 31%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 73%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Zambia predicted to win with 69% probability
- • Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls for Zambia against Nigeria on 21 October 2026
- • Uganda bowled Lesotho out for 87 at Oval 2, the ground for this game (21 October 2026)
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 73%
- • Our model is 3 points above the market on Zambia, but the price is fair, so the toss is the angle
Zambia to beat Lesotho in Abuja.
Our AI model predicts Zambia to beat Lesotho with a 69% win probability in the eighth match of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja. Zambia lost to Uganda by 87 runs (20 October 2026) and to Nigeria by nine wickets on 21 October 2026.
Lesotho beat Mozambique by 74 runs on 20 October 2026, then lost to Uganda by five wickets at Oval 2 (21 October 2026) after being bowled out for 87.
Six teams play each other once at two grounds in Abuja: Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, Lesotho, Mozambique and Gambia. The top two go through to the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
Ismail Kara carries Zambia's batting into the Lesotho game
Zambia chose to bat after winning the toss against Nigeria at Oval 1 in Abuja on 21 October 2026, and made 142 for 9 in 20 overs.
Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls in that innings against Nigeria. Jakir Patel added 21 from 16 balls for Zambia in the same innings.
Nigeria reached 146 for 1 in 14.5 overs in reply, and won by nine wickets.
Uganda batted first against Zambia in Abuja on 20 October 2026, and made 195 for 6 in 20 overs.
Zambia were bowled out for 108 in 17.3 overs in reply, and Uganda won by 87 runs. Joyeb Chand made 38 off 28 balls in that defeat to Uganda (20 October 2026).
Zambia came to Abuja from the Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series at TCA Oval in Blantyre. Zambia beat Rwanda there by four wickets on 15 August 2026, with six balls remaining.
Ismail Kara made 54 from 41 balls in that win over Rwanda (15 August 2026). Zambia also beat Malawi by 47 runs at TCA Oval on 15 August 2026, after making 180 for 9.
Rwanda then beat Zambia by five wickets in the final on 16 August 2026, after Zambia made 92 for 9.
Can Maaz Khan lift Lesotho after the Uganda defeat?
Lesotho won the toss and batted against Mozambique at Oval 1 on 20 October 2026, making 169 for 8 in 20 overs.
Mohmed Duvesh Patel made 63 off 45 balls in that innings against Mozambique (20 October 2026). Maaz Khan made 52 from 32 balls for Lesotho in the same innings.
Mozambique were bowled out for 95 in 18.2 overs in reply, and Lesotho won by 74 runs.
Lesotho won the toss and batted again against Uganda at Oval 2 on 21 October 2026, and were bowled out for 87 in 19.3 overs.
Maaz Khan made 38 from 32 balls in that innings against Uganda. Uganda reached 89 for 5 in 12.3 overs in reply, and won by five wickets with 45 balls remaining.
Lesotho played the Eswatini T20 Tri-Series at Malkerns Country Club oval in June 2026. Lesotho beat Eswatini by 18 runs there on 7 June 2026, after making 221 for 6.
Maaz Khan made 82 off 31 balls in that innings against Eswatini (7 June 2026). Lebona Leokaoke made 71 not out from 48 balls for Lesotho in the same innings.
Mozambique beat Lesotho by 22 runs (4 June 2026) and by 49 runs on 6 June 2026 in the same tri-series.
Key matchups: Zambia's top order against Lesotho's bowlers
Ismail Kara vs Lesotho's new ball: Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls when Nigeria beat Zambia on 21 October 2026. Kara made 54 from 41 balls in Zambia's win over Rwanda in the Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series (15 August 2026).
Maaz Khan vs Zambia's attack: Maaz Khan made 52 from 32 balls when Lesotho beat Mozambique by 74 runs (20 October 2026). Khan made 38 from 32 balls when Uganda bowled Lesotho out for 87 on 21 October 2026.
Mohmed Duvesh Patel vs Zambia's bowlers: Mohmed Duvesh Patel made 63 off 45 balls at Oval 1 on 20 October 2026. Uganda made 195 for 6 against Zambia's bowlers on 20 October 2026.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Zambia and Lesotho meet at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2 on 23 October 2026. Both sides have played Uganda in this qualifier.
Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs on 20 October 2026. Uganda beat Lesotho by five wickets, with 45 balls remaining, at Oval 2 (21 October 2026).
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja hosts Zambia v Lesotho, the eighth match of the qualifier, on Friday 23 October 2026.
- Pitch: Nigeria batted first against Gambia at Oval 2 on 20 October 2026 and made 262 for 1. Uganda bowled Lesotho out for 87 in 19.3 overs at Oval 2 (21 October 2026).
- Weather: A day game in Abuja.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 73%. Uganda, Lesotho and Nigeria won the toss and batted in the 20 October 2026 games, and Mozambique, Lesotho and Zambia won it and batted in the 21 October 2026 games. See our toss analysis for ZMB vs LSO, locked in before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: where Lesotho need to beat Zambia
Lesotho's best chance is to bat first and post a total, as they did against Mozambique, when Lesotho made 169 for 8 at Oval 1 (20 October 2026).
Lesotho's batting also has to last 20 overs. Uganda bowled Lesotho out for 87 in 19.3 overs at Oval 2 on 21 October 2026.
Zambia need more than one batter to score. Ismail Kara made 82 of Zambia's 142 for 9 against Nigeria (21 October 2026).
Zambia vs Lesotho prediction: Zambia at 69%
We back Zambia at 69.1%. Zambia reached the final of the Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series in August 2026, and Ismail Kara made 82 from 44 balls against Nigeria on 21 October 2026.
Zambia's price of 1.44 sits just under our fair odds of 1.45, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced and the toss is the angle: bat first at 73%.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia | 69.1% | 66.1% | 1.44 | 1.45 |
| Lesotho | 30.9% | 33.9% | 2.59 | 3.24 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Zambia at 1.44 sit just under our fair odds of 1.45, and Lesotho at 2.59 under our fair 3.24. The toss is the angle, where our call is bat first at 73%. Odds captured on 22 October 2026.
Our model is 3 points above the market on Zambia. Here's why. Zambia's defeats in Abuja came against Uganda and Nigeria, and Uganda also beat Lesotho by five wickets at Oval 2 (21 October 2026), when Lesotho were bowled out for 87. Zambia reached the final of the Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series in August 2026, beating Malawi by 47 runs and Rwanda by four wickets on 15 August 2026.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C 2026
Zambia vs Lesothoodds
23 Oct 2026 · 14:30 IST
Match winner: Zambia 1.51 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; Lesotho 2.59 at Dafabet; checked 21:48–21:50 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1ZMB | 2LSO | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Zambia 1.44 | 2 · Lesotho 2.59 | Payout92.5% |
 | 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.56 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.56 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.56 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.56 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.56 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.56 | Payout95.0% |
| Highest | 1 · Zambia1.51 | 2 · Lesotho2.59 | Payout– |
1X2: Zambia 1.51, Tie 25.00, Lesotho 2.54 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 21:50 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1ZMB | XTie | 2LSO | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.54 | Payout91.4% |
| 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.54 | Payout91.4% |
| 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.54 | Payout91.4% |
| 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.54 | Payout91.4% |
| 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.54 | Payout91.4% |
| 1 · Zambia ▼1.51 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Lesotho ▲2.54 | Payout91.4% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Zambia vs Lesotho in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C?
Our AI model predicts Zambia to beat Lesotho, with a 69.1% win probability, at Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 2, Abuja on 23 October 2026. Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls for Zambia against Nigeria on 21 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Zambia vs Lesotho?
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 73% for Zambia vs Lesotho in Abuja. Lesotho won the toss and batted against Mozambique (20 October 2026) and against Uganda on 21 October 2026.
What are the odds for Zambia vs Lesotho?
At the time of writing, 22 October 2026, Zambia are 1.44 and Lesotho 2.59. Our fair odds are 1.45 and 3.24, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced.
Who are the key players for Zambia and Lesotho?
For Zambia, Ismail Kara made 82 off 44 balls against Nigeria (21 October 2026). For Lesotho, Mohmed Duvesh Patel made 63 off 45 balls against Mozambique on 20 October 2026, and Maaz Khan made 52 from 32 balls in that win over Mozambique.
How have Zambia and Lesotho played against Uganda?
Uganda beat Zambia by 87 runs in Abuja on 20 October 2026, and beat Lesotho by five wickets at Oval 2 on 21 October 2026.
How does the Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C work?
Six teams, including Zambia and Lesotho, play each other once in Abuja in October 2026. The top two reach the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Regional Final in 2027.
More T20 WC Africa Qualifier C Tips That Day
Also Playing That Day
Explore More
Our bookmaker reviews: UPI, bonuses, payouts
🎯 our cricket prediction recordEvery prediction logged, every result settled publicly
🏏 the cricket prediction hubAll today's free cricket prediction tips
🪙 our recorded toss callPre-toss call vs actual outcome, auto-stamped