Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe Final Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Afghanistan predicted to win the final with 75% probability
Afghanistan
Zimbabwe 25%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 64%.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Afghanistan predicted to win the final with 75% probability
- • Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by 158 runs in the group game in Abu Dhabi (19 October 2026)
- • Afghanistan reached the final unbeaten after a seven-wicket win over Bangladesh at Sharjah (21 October 2026)
- • Bat first is our toss call, at 64%
- • The match-winner market is efficiently priced at 1.30 and 3.47, so the toss is the angle
Afghanistan are our pick at 75%.
Our AI model predicts an Afghanistan win over Zimbabwe in the final of the UAE ODI Tri-Series at Sharjah Cricket Stadium on Friday 23 October 2026. Afghanistan won both of their group games, against Zimbabwe (19 October) and Bangladesh (21 October 2026). Zimbabwe reached the final by beating Bangladesh by 99 runs in Abu Dhabi (17 October 2026).
Can Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe twice in four days?
Afghanistan won the toss against Zimbabwe in Abu Dhabi on 19 October 2026, batted first and made 294 in 50 overs. Sediqullah Atal made 102 off 110 balls against Zimbabwe that day and was player of the match.
Ibrahim Zadran made 90 off 96 balls against Zimbabwe in the same innings (19 October 2026). Zimbabwe then lost by 158 runs.
Rashid Khan took 4 for 17 in eight overs against Zimbabwe on 19 October 2026. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 136 in 38.4 overs in reply.
Afghanistan moved to Sharjah for their second group game (21 October 2026). Bangladesh won the toss, batted first and were bowled out for 160 in 41.2 overs. Rashid Khan took 4 for 31 in 8.2 overs against Bangladesh in that innings and was player of the match.
Afghanistan reached 161 for 3 in 35.3 overs and won by seven wickets with 87 balls remaining (21 October 2026). Rahmat Shah made 67 not out off 90 balls against Bangladesh that day. Hashmatullah Shahidi made 36 not out off 54 balls in the same chase.
Can Zimbabwe's batters recover from 136 all out?
Zimbabwe opened the tri-series with a 99-run win over Bangladesh in Abu Dhabi (17 October 2026). They won the toss, batted first and made 271 for 8 in 50 overs. Brendan Taylor made 81 off 101 balls against Bangladesh in that innings.
Brad Evans took 4 for 45 in 6.4 overs against Bangladesh on 17 October 2026. Bangladesh were bowled out for 172 in 33.4 overs.
Two days later Zimbabwe met Afghanistan and were all out for 136 (19 October 2026). Sikandar Raza made 48 off 80 balls against Afghanistan, Zimbabwe's top score that day. Brian Bennett made 31 off 40 balls against Afghanistan in the same innings.
Zimbabwe's one-day form before the tri-series was poor. They lost three ODIs to Australia in Harare in September 2026: by 59 runs on 15 September, by 84 runs on 18 September and by one wicket on 20 September 2026.
Key Matchups: Rashid Khan, Sediqullah Atal and Zimbabwe's bowlers
Rashid Khan vs Sikandar Raza: Rashid Khan took 4 for 17 in eight overs against Zimbabwe on 19 October 2026. Sikandar Raza made 48 off 80 balls against Afghanistan on 19 October 2026, and Zimbabwe need him at the crease through Rashid Khan's spell.
Sediqullah Atal vs Brad Evans: Sediqullah Atal made 102 off 110 balls against Zimbabwe on 19 October 2026. Brad Evans took 4 for 45 in 6.4 overs against Bangladesh on 17 October 2026, and early wickets from him are Zimbabwe's best way to keep Afghanistan's total down.
Ibrahim Zadran vs Ernest Masuku: Ibrahim Zadran made 90 off 96 balls against Zimbabwe on 19 October 2026. Ernest Masuku took 3 for 44 in eight overs against Afghanistan on 19 October 2026.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by 158 runs at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi on 19 October 2026, the most recent ODI between the sides.
Before that, the sides played three ODIs at Harare Sports Club in December 2024. The first, on 17 December 2024, ended in no result.
Afghanistan made 286 for 6 in 50 overs on 19 December 2024. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 54 in 17.5 overs, and Afghanistan won by 232 runs.
Zimbabwe were bowled out for 127 in 30.1 overs on 21 December 2024. Afghanistan reached 131 for 2 in 26.5 overs and won by eight wickets.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Sharjah Cricket Stadium, Sharjah. Afghanistan v Zimbabwe is the final of the UAE ODI Tri-Series, a day/night game on Friday 23 October 2026.
- Ground: Bangladesh won the toss and batted first here on 21 October 2026, and Afghanistan won the game batting second. Afghanistan also won batting second here against South Africa (18 September 2024), and South Africa did the same against Afghanistan four days later (22 September 2024).
- Series: All three toss winners in this tri-series chose to bat: Zimbabwe on 17 October, Afghanistan on 19 October and Bangladesh on 21 October 2026.
- Toss: Toss call: Bat first — Afghanistan won the toss and batted at this ground against South Africa on 20 and 22 September 2024, and again against Zimbabwe in Abu Dhabi on 19 October 2026, while Zimbabwe batted after winning the toss on 17 October 2026; we put the chance that the toss winner bats first at 64%. The Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe toss page records our call before the toss and updates with the result.
Match Analysis: where Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe will be won and lost
This final turns on Zimbabwe's batting. Zimbabwe were all out for 136 in 38.4 overs when the sides met on 19 October 2026, and their 271 for 8 against Bangladesh (17 October 2026) came against a different attack.
The toss shapes the plan for both sides. If Zimbabwe bat first, they need a total close to that 271 for 8. If Afghanistan bat first, Zimbabwe need early wickets: Afghanistan made 294 batting first on 19 October 2026, after a century from Sediqullah Atal.
Batting second can work here too. Afghanistan reached 161 for 3 in 35.3 overs to beat Bangladesh at this ground on 21 October 2026, and South Africa won here batting second against Afghanistan on 22 September 2024.
Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe Prediction: Afghanistan to win the tri-series final
We back Afghanistan at 75%. They beat Zimbabwe by 158 runs on 19 October 2026, and in Harare they beat Zimbabwe by 232 runs (19 December 2024) and by eight wickets (21 December 2024). Zimbabwe, at 24.6%, need far more than the 136 they made in that group game.
The match-winner market is efficiently priced, and the toss is the angle: we expect the toss winner to bat first.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | 75.4% | 74.4% | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| Zimbabwe | 24.6% | 25.6% | 3.47 | 4.07 |
The match-winner market is efficiently priced. Afghanistan at 1.30 sit just under our fair odds of 1.33, and Zimbabwe at 3.47 sit under our fair 4.07. Our model and the market agree on Afghanistan to within a point. The toss is the angle: we expect the toss winner to bat first, at 64%. Odds captured on 21 October 2026.
UAE ODI Tri-Series 2026
Afghanistan vs Zimbabweodds
23 Oct 2026 · 17:00 IST
Match winner: Afghanistan 1.30, Zimbabwe 3.47 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 03:55 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AFG | 2ZIM | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.30 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.47 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.30 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.47 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.30 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.47 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.30 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.47 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.30 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.47 | Payout95.0% |
 | 1 · Afghanistan 1.30 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.47 | Payout95.0% |
1X2: Afghanistan 1.31, Tie 50.00, Zimbabwe 3.48 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 03:55 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1AFG | XTie | 2ZIM | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.31 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.48 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.31 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.48 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.31 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.48 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.31 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.48 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.31 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.48 | Payout93.4% |
| 1 · Afghanistan 1.31 | X · Tie 50.00 | 2 · Zimbabwe 3.48 | Payout93.4% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe in the UAE ODI Tri-Series 2026 final?
Our AI model predicts Afghanistan to beat Zimbabwe, with a 75% win probability, in the final of the UAE ODI Tri-Series at Sharjah Cricket Stadium on 23 October 2026. Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by 158 runs in their group game in Abu Dhabi on 19 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
Our toss call for Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe is bat first, at 64%. All three toss winners in the UAE ODI Tri-Series chose to bat: Zimbabwe (17 October), Afghanistan (19 October) and Bangladesh (21 October 2026). Afghanistan also won the toss and batted at Sharjah Cricket Stadium on 20 and 22 September 2024.
What are the odds for Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
At the time of writing, 21 October 2026, Afghanistan were priced at 1.30 and Zimbabwe at 3.47 for the final. Our fair odds are 1.33 and 4.07, so the match-winner market is efficiently priced on both sides.
What happened when Afghanistan played Zimbabwe on 19 October 2026?
Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by 158 runs at Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi on 19 October 2026. Sediqullah Atal made 102 off 110 balls in Afghanistan's 294. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 136 in 38.4 overs, and Rashid Khan took 4 for 17.
How did Afghanistan and Zimbabwe reach the final?
Afghanistan won both of their UAE ODI Tri-Series group games: by 158 runs against Zimbabwe (19 October 2026) and by seven wickets against Bangladesh at Sharjah (21 October 2026). Zimbabwe reached the final by beating Bangladesh by 99 runs in Abu Dhabi on 17 October 2026.
What is the head-to-head record between Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in recent ODIs?
Afghanistan won the most recent ODI between the sides, by 158 runs in Abu Dhabi on 19 October 2026. In Harare in December 2024 the first ODI (17 December) ended in no result, and Afghanistan won the next two, by 232 runs (19 December) and by eight wickets (21 December 2024).
