Janakpur Bolts (NPL) vs Karnali Yaks (NPL) Match 3 Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
Karnali Yaks predicted to win with 56.6% probability
Karnali Yaks (NPL)
Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 43%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • Karnali Yaks predicted to win with 56.6% probability
- • Karnali Yaks won the 2025 meeting by 3 runs, after Janakpur Bolts won both 2024 meetings
- • Mark Watt hit an unbeaten 114 from 44 balls for Karnali Yaks against Lumbini Lions on 22 November 2025
- • We expect the toss winner to field first (63%)
- • Fair odds of 2.30 and 1.77 sit above both available prices, so the match-winner market is fairly priced
Karnali Yaks are our pick at 56.6%.
Our AI model predicts a Karnali Yaks win over Janakpur Bolts in the 3rd Match of the Nepal Premier League 2026, a day/night game that starts at 4:15 pm IST (10:45 UTC) on 27 October 2026 at Kirtipur. Karnali Yaks won the 2025 meeting by 3 runs, and both available prices sit just under our fair odds of 2.30 and 1.77.
Can Anil Sah lift the 2024 champions, Janakpur Bolts?
Janakpur Bolts won the first Nepal Premier League title, in 2024. In the 2024 final, also at Kirtipur, Sudur Paschim Royals made 184 for 9. Janakpur Bolts reached 185 for 5 in 19.2 overs to take the trophy.
Janakpur Bolts lost their last two games of 2025. Lumbini Lions beat them by 4 wickets in the 5 December 2025 game, after Janakpur Bolts won the toss and chose to bat. Karnali Yaks then beat them by 3 runs two days later.
Anil Sah is the batter to watch. He made 61 from 36 balls against Chitwan Rhinos (2 December 2025). Janakpur Bolts won that game by 6 wickets with 15 balls to spare.
James Neesham, Lalit Rajbanshi and Aaditya Mahata are also in the 2026 squad.
Karnali Yaks bring Mark Watt and the more recent win
Karnali Yaks beat Janakpur Bolts by 3 runs at Kirtipur in the sides' last meeting, in December 2025. They batted first that night and defended 129 for 9.
Mark Watt made 114 not out off 44 balls, with 12 sixes, against Lumbini Lions on 22 November 2025. Karnali Yaks won that game by 9 wickets with 46 balls to spare, and Watt was player of the match.
Sompal Kami, Gulsan Jha and Pawan Sarraf are in the 2026 squad as well. Sompal Kami made an unbeaten 18 from 11 balls against Janakpur Bolts in that December 2025 win.
Key matchups: Anil Sah against Mark Watt
Anil Sah vs Mark Watt: Anil Sah made 62 not out off 42 balls against Karnali Yaks on 2 December 2024. Mark Watt took 1 for 9 in four overs, one of them a maiden, against Janakpur Bolts in the 7 December 2025 game. If Sah gets through Watt's overs, Janakpur Bolts can set the pace.
Gulsan Jha vs Lalit Rajbanshi: Gulsan Jha made 36 from 27 balls for Karnali Yaks against Janakpur Bolts in the 2 December 2024 game. Lalit Rajbanshi took 2 for 16 in three overs for Janakpur Bolts against Karnali Yaks a year later (7 December 2025), so his spell is the one most likely to shape the Karnali innings.
Sompal Kami vs Aaditya Mahata: Sompal Kami made 29 not out from 13 balls against Janakpur Bolts (2 December 2024). Aaditya Mahata took 2 for 9 in one over for Janakpur Bolts against Karnali Yaks in the 7 December 2025 game, so this matchup could settle the closing overs.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Janakpur Bolts won both 2024 meetings. On 2 December 2024, Karnali Yaks won the toss, chose to bat and made 141 for 7 in 20 overs. Janakpur Bolts replied with 142 for 2 in 15.1 overs and won by 8 wickets, with Anil Sah 62 not out.
In Qualifier 2 that season, Karnali Yaks made 118 for 9. Janakpur Bolts reached 119 for 8 in 19 overs and went through to the final.
The 2025 meeting went the other way. Janakpur Bolts won the toss on 7 December 2025 and chose to field. Karnali Yaks made 129 for 9. Janakpur Bolts finished on 126 for 7, and Karnali Yaks won by 3 runs.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur staged the 2024 and 2025 meetings between these sides and hosted the 2026 opener (26 October).
- Pitch: In the 13 December 2025 final at Kirtipur, Sudur Paschim Royals were all out for 85 and lost by 6 wickets. In the 2026 opener at the same ground, Sudur Paschim Royals made 87 and Lumbini Lions won by 7 wickets with 61 balls left.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — Janakpur Bolts chose to field after winning the toss against Karnali Yaks in the day/night meeting of 7 December 2025, and Lumbini Lions fielded after winning the toss in the 2026 opener (26 October 2026). We put the chance that the toss winner fields first at 63%. Our full pre-toss reasoning for JAB vs KAY — field first or bat first, and why — sits on the toss page.
Match Analysis: early wickets and the Janakpur chase
The last meeting turned on the first 10 overs of the chase. After Janakpur Bolts chose to field, Karnali Yaks made 129 for 9. Janakpur Bolts were 42 for 4 after 10 overs of their reply and lost by 3 runs.
Both 2024 meetings went to Janakpur Bolts batting second. They ran down Karnali Yaks' 141 for 7 with 29 balls to spare in the first of them, and got home with an over left in Qualifier 2.
Scoring was hard in the 2026 opener at Kirtipur, where Sudur Paschim Royals made 87. Lumbini Lions needed only 9.5 overs to win. If that happens again, the powerplay will decide more than the death overs.
Janakpur Bolts vs Karnali Yaks prediction: Karnali Yaks are narrow favourites
We back Karnali Yaks at 56.6%, about 57%, with Janakpur Bolts at 43.4%. The case for Karnali Yaks is the more recent win in this fixture and the hitting of Mark Watt.
Janakpur Bolts still have Anil Sah, player of the match when they beat Karnali Yaks in the 2 December 2024 game. Our fair odds are 2.30 for Janakpur Bolts and 1.77 for Karnali Yaks.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janakpur Bolts | 43.4% | 43.4% | 2.14 | 2.30 |
| Karnali Yaks | 56.6% | 56.6% | 1.68 | 1.77 |
The match-winner market is fairly priced. Karnali Yaks at 1.68 sit just under our fair odds of 1.77, and Janakpur Bolts at 2.14 sit under our fair 2.30. The toss is the more useful angle here, and we expect the toss winner to field first. Odds captured on 26 October 2026.
Nepal Premier League
Janakpur Bolts (NPL) vs Karnali Yaks (NPL)odds
27 Oct 2026 · 16:15 IST
Match winner: Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.28 at Dafabet; Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 03:15–03:18 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1JAB | 2KAY | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) ▲2.28 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) ▼1.60 | Payout94.0% |
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 | Payout94.5% |
 | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.63 | Payout94.5% |
| Highest | 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL)2.28 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL)1.63 | Payout– |
1X2: Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23, Tie 25.00, Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 03:15 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1JAB | XTie | 2KAY | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 | Payout91.2% |
| 1 · Janakpur Bolts (NPL) 2.23 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · Karnali Yaks (NPL) 1.64 | Payout91.2% |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Janakpur Bolts vs Karnali Yaks in the Nepal Premier League 2026?
Our AI model makes Karnali Yaks 56.6% favourites to beat Janakpur Bolts in the 3rd Match of the Nepal Premier League 2026 at Kirtipur on 27 October 2026, with Janakpur Bolts at 43.4%. Karnali Yaks won the most recent meeting between the sides by 3 runs on 7 December 2025.
What is the toss prediction for Janakpur Bolts vs Karnali Yaks?
We expect the toss winner to field first, and we put that chance at 63%. Janakpur Bolts chose to field after winning the toss against Karnali Yaks at Kirtipur on 7 December 2025, and Lumbini Lions did the same in the 2026 opener on 26 October 2026.
What are the odds for Janakpur Bolts vs Karnali Yaks?
Janakpur Bolts are priced at 2.14 and Karnali Yaks at 1.68 for the Nepal Premier League 2026 game at Kirtipur on 27 October 2026. Our fair odds are 2.30 and 1.77, so both prices sit just under our numbers and the match-winner market is fairly priced.
What happened when Janakpur Bolts and Karnali Yaks last met?
Karnali Yaks beat Janakpur Bolts by 3 runs at Kirtipur on 7 December 2025. Karnali Yaks made 129 for 9 in 20 overs after Janakpur Bolts won the toss and chose to field. Janakpur Bolts finished on 126 for 7 in reply.
Who won the 2024 meetings between Janakpur Bolts and Karnali Yaks?
Janakpur Bolts won both 2024 meetings with Karnali Yaks. They won by 8 wickets at Kirtipur on 2 December 2024, with Anil Sah unbeaten on 62, and then won Qualifier 2 that season on the way to the title.
Who are the key players for Janakpur Bolts and Karnali Yaks?
For Janakpur Bolts, Anil Sah made 61 from 36 balls against Chitwan Rhinos in December 2025, and James Neesham is in the 2026 squad. For Karnali Yaks, Mark Watt scored an unbeaten 114 from 44 balls against Lumbini Lions on 22 November 2025.
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