New Zealand vs India 3rd T20I Prediction & Betting Tips
Our prediction
India predicted to win with 63.6% probability
India
New Zealand 36%Toss Prediction
Our toss call
We expect the toss winner to field.
Toss preview ›Key Takeaways
- • India predicted to win with 63.6% probability
- • India lead the series 2-0 after 4-wicket wins at Hagley Oval, Christchurch, on 22 and 24 October 2026
- • India won with two balls to spare in the first game and with one ball to spare in the second
- • We expect the toss winner to bowl first at this night start (63%)
- • India at 1.63 is the value side, above our fair odds of 1.57
India to beat New Zealand in Wellington.
Our AI model gives India a 63.6% chance of winning the 3rd T20I against New Zealand at Hnry Stadium, Wellington, on 27 October 2026, at 12:30 pm IST (07:00 UTC). India lead the series 2-0 after 4-wicket wins in Christchurch on 22 and 24 October 2026. Their price of 1.63 sits above our fair odds of 1.57, so the favourite is also the value side.
New Zealand have runs from Glenn Phillips and still trail 2-0
Glenn Phillips faced 40 balls for his 82 not out against India at Hagley Oval on 22 October 2026. Finn Allen made 45 off 24 balls against India in that 22 October game. New Zealand reached 225 for 4, and it was not enough.
India made 230 for 6 in 19.4 overs in reply and won by 4 wickets. New Zealand's bowlers had their moments in that chase. Michael Bracewell took 2 for 37 in four overs against India (22 October 2026).
The second game followed a similar pattern. Glenn Phillips needed 43 balls for his 70 against India in Christchurch on 24 October 2026. Bevon Jacobs made 58 off 46 balls against India in the 24 October game. New Zealand finished on 180 for 5 in their 20 overs.
Mitchell Santner then gave New Zealand a real chance with the ball. Mitchell Santner took 4 for 21 in four overs against India on 24 October 2026, and India still won with one ball to spare.
Why India's batting depth keeps winning the chase
India's runs in this series have come from all through the order. Sanju Samson's 67 against New Zealand on 22 October 2026 took him 33 balls. Shreyas Iyer made 42 against New Zealand (22 October 2026) in the same chase.
The finishing has come from further down the order. Naman Dhir made 42 not out off 15 balls against New Zealand in the 22 October game, and 31 off 17 balls against them on 24 October 2026. Tilak Varma made 51 not out off 26 balls against New Zealand in the 24 October game to see India home.
With the ball, Arshdeep Singh took 2 for 33 in four overs against New Zealand on 24 October 2026.
Key Matchups: Phillips against India's death bowling, Santner against the middle order
Glenn Phillips vs Arshdeep Singh: Arshdeep Singh is the bowler India trust at the end of an innings, and Glenn Phillips is the batter New Zealand need there. Arshdeep Singh's 2 for 33 in four overs came against New Zealand in the 24 October game.
Mitchell Santner vs India's middle order: Mitchell Santner's 4 for 21 in four overs came against India in the 24 October game. His left-arm spin is New Zealand's best weapon in the middle overs, and India's middle order has to see him through without losing a cluster of wickets.
Naman Dhir vs New Zealand's last overs: Naman Dhir's 42 not out against New Zealand at Hagley Oval (22 October 2026) came off 15 balls. If New Zealand bowl first again, his late hitting is what they have to stop.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
India have won the 1st and 2nd T20Is of this series at Hagley Oval, Christchurch, both by 4 wickets. They won with two balls to spare on 22 October and with one ball to spare two days later, in the 24 October 2026 game.
At the Wellington ground, then called Westpac Stadium, New Zealand beat India by 80 runs in a T20I on 6 February 2019. New Zealand made 219 for 6 that night. India were bowled out for 139 in 19.2 overs.
On 31 January 2020, at the same ground, the T20I between New Zealand and India was tied on 165, and India won the Super Over.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Hnry Stadium, Wellington is the ground formerly known as Sky Stadium and, before that, Westpac Stadium, with about 34,500 seats. The 3rd T20I is the first game of this series in Wellington, after two at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
- Start: 12:30 pm IST (07:00 UTC), a night match under floodlights.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first — we expect the toss winner to bowl at this night start, at 63%. Our toss prediction for New Zealand vs India is timestamped publicly before the coin lands.
Match Analysis: New Zealand need wickets before India's finishers arrive
India won the toss and bowled at Hagley Oval in both games, on 22 and 24 October 2026, and won batting second each time. New Zealand made 225 for 4 in the first of those games and still lost, so their problem is not only the total.
Their route is wickets in the middle overs. Mitchell Santner showed what that looks like in the second game, and India still had Tilak Varma and Naman Dhir to finish the chase. New Zealand need to reach India's lower order with more work left for them to do.
The toss matters less than the matchups. India are 64% whichever side bats first, and our toss call is to bowl first at this night start.
New Zealand vs India prediction: India to take a 3-0 lead
Our AI model makes India 63.6% favourites for the 3rd T20I at Hnry Stadium, with fair odds of 1.57. India's 1.63 sits above that, so the pick and the value point the same way. New Zealand at 2.34 are below their fair odds of 2.75.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 36.4% | 40.5% | 2.34 | 2.75 |
| India | 63.6% | 59.5% | 1.63 | 1.57 |
Value sits with India. India's 1.63 is above our fair odds of 1.57, an edge of about 4%, and a price of 1.66 is available on India. New Zealand's 2.34 is below our fair 2.75, so the favourite is both our pick and the value side. Odds captured 24 October 2026.
Our model is 4.1 points above the market on India. Here's why. India have won both games of this series batting second, on 22 and 24 October 2026. Their finishers delivered each time. Naman Dhir made 42 not out off 15 balls (22 October 2026), and Tilak Varma made 51 not out off 26 balls (24 October 2026), both against New Zealand.
India tour of New Zealand 2026
New Zealand vs Indiaodds
27 Oct 2026 · 12:30 IST
Match winner: New Zealand 2.34 at Dafabet; India 1.66 at 1xBet; checked 01:18–01:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1NZ | 2IND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.34 | 2 · India 1.63 | Payout96.1% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.23 | 2 · India 1.65 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.23 | 2 · India 1.65 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.23 | 2 · India 1.65 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.23 | 2 · India 1.65 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.23 | 2 · India 1.65 | Payout94.9% |
 | 1 · New Zealand 2.24 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout95.5% |
| Highest | 1 · New Zealand2.34 | 2 · India1.66 | Payout– |
1X2: New Zealand 2.25, Tie 25.00, India 1.66 at WinWin, Melbet, Megapari, Paripesa, PlanBet, 1xBet; checked 01:20 IST.
| Bookmaker | 1NZ | XTie | 2IND | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · New Zealand 2.25 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout92.1% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.25 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout92.1% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.25 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout92.1% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.25 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout92.1% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.25 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout92.1% |
| 1 · New Zealand 2.25 | X · Tie 25.00 | 2 · India 1.66 | Payout92.1% |
Total runs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Match379.5 | 1.91Paripesa | 1.751xBet |
| New Zealand186.5 | 1.92Paripesa | 1.741xBet |
| India194.5 | 1.92WinWin | 1.74PlanBet |
Call this match. Take on our AI.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win New Zealand vs India in the 3rd T20I?
Our AI model predicts India to beat New Zealand, with a 63.6% win probability, in the 3rd T20I at Hnry Stadium, Wellington (27 October 2026). India lead the series 2-0 after 4-wicket wins in Christchurch on 22 and 24 October 2026.
What is the toss prediction for New Zealand vs India?
We expect the toss winner to bowl first in New Zealand vs India, at 63%. The 3rd T20I at Hnry Stadium, Wellington is a night match starting at 12:30 pm IST (07:00 UTC), 27 October 2026.
What are the odds for New Zealand vs India?
At the time of writing, 24 October 2026, New Zealand were priced at 2.34 and India at 1.63, against our fair odds of 2.75 and 1.57. A higher price of 1.66 is available on India, above our fair price.
What happened in the 2nd T20I between New Zealand and India?
India beat New Zealand by 4 wickets at Hagley Oval, Christchurch (24 October 2026), with one ball to spare. New Zealand made 180 for 5 in their 20 overs. India reached 181 for 6 in 19.5 overs, with Tilak Varma 51 not out off 26 balls.
What is Hnry Stadium in Wellington?
Hnry Stadium in Wellington is the ground formerly known as Sky Stadium and Westpac Stadium, with about 34,500 seats. It hosts the New Zealand v India 3rd T20I of 27 October 2026, the first game of the series in Wellington.
How have New Zealand and India done in T20Is at this Wellington ground?
New Zealand beat India by 80 runs at the Wellington ground, then called Westpac Stadium, on 6 February 2019. On 31 January 2020 the T20I between the two sides there was tied on 165, and India won the Super Over.
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